(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-week high 120.45 Tuesday as markets await Bank of Japan monetary policy decision. USD/JPY underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.91 versus 97.07 early Tuesday) as more-than-expected 5.133 million U.S. February job openings (versus forecast 5.01 million), rise in U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 51.3 in April from 49.1 in March, and larger-than-expected $15.52 billion increase in U.S. February consumer credit (versus forecast +$12.0 billion) bolster belief that last Friday's weak U.S. March non-farm payrolls report was an aberration and that the U.S. economy will regain momentum after the first quarter. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.27% to 14.78, S&P 500 closed 0.21% lower at 2,076.33 overnight). Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan March provisional trade statistics for 1st 20 days, 2350 GMT Japan 4Q revised balance of payments, 2350 GMT Japan February balance of payments, 2350 GMT Japan March international transactions in securities; 0500 GMT Japan March economy watchers survey; 1800 GMT Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes. Daily chart mixed as MACD and in bearish mode; but stochastics neutral, five-day moving average meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average. Resistance at 120.45 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 121.20 (March 20 high), then 121.53 (March 17 high) and 121.67 (March 12 high). Support at 119.45 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.80-118.71 band (Monday's low-Friday's low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; decreased investor risk appetite; weaker-than-expected Markit final eurozone March services PMI of 54.2 (versus forecast 54.3) and composite PMI of 54.0 (versus forecast 54.1); persistent concerns about Greece; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected eurozone February PPI of +0.5% on-month, -2.8% on-year (versus forecast +0.4% on-month; -2.9% on-year). Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany February manufacturing orders (forecast +1.5% on-month); 0800 GMT German Ifo 3Q euro-zone economic outlook; 0810 GMT eurozone March retail PMI; 0900 GMT eurozone February retail sales (forecast -0.1% on-month). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish near overbought levels. Support at 1.0803 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0750 (Thursday's low), then 1.0718-1.0713 (April 1 low-March 31 low) and 1.0650 (March 20 low). Resistance at 1.0885 (hourly chart), then at 1.0955 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1036 (Monday's high), then 1.1052 (March 26 high), 1.1115 (March 5 high) and 1.1185 (March 4 high).
AUD/USD--to range-trade. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; waning investor risk appetite. But Aussie sentiment soothed by surprise Reserve Bank of Australia's decision Tuesday not to cut interest rates; stronger-than-expected 0.7% on-month increase in Australia February retail sales (versus forecast +0.4%). AUD/USD downside also limited by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 0400 GMT Australia April monthly leading indicator of employment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Support at 0.7574-0.7568 band (Tuesday's low-Friday's low); breach would target 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit Thursday), then 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7688 (hourly chart), then at 0.7710 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7757 (March 30 high), then 0.7834 (March 27 high), 0.7884 (March 26 high) and 0.7904 (March 25 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; subdued investor risk appetite; weak dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart mixed as MACD turning bearish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 0.7482 (Tuesday's low which was tested this morning); breach would expose downside to 0.7422 (Thursday's low), then 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low) and 0.7359 (March 19 low). Resistance at 0.7559 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7621-0.7630 band (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 0.7663 (March 26 high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; receding investor risk appetite; uncertainty ahead of next month's U.K. general election. But sterling sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected U.K. March CIPS / Markit services PMI of 58.9 (versus forecast 57.0). GBP/USD losses also tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; caution before Bank of England's rate decision Thursday. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 1.4798 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.4774 (Thursday's low), then 1.4737 (April 1 reaction low), 1.4720 (March 20 low), 1.4685 (March 19 low) and 1.4632 (near-five-year low hit March 18). Resistance at 1.4911-1.4919 band (hourly chart-Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.4980 (Monday's high), then 1.4993 (March 26 high), 1.5008 (March 19 high), 1.5100 (55-day moving average) and 1.5147 (March 18 high).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0715 GMT Switzerland March CPI (forecast +0.2% on-month, -1.0% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.9672-0.9675 (Tuesday's high-Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9743 (April 1 high), then 0.9760 (March 31 reaction high), 0.9812 (March 23 high) and 0.9984 (March 19 high). Support at 0.9596 (hourly chart), then at 0.9553 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9493 (Monday's low), then 0.9477 (Friday's low), 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in higher range. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; decreased investor risk appetite. But USD/CAD gains tempered by stronger oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.84 at $53.98/bbl Tuesday, although gains were pared this morning as it was last down $1.10 at $52.88/bbl on Globex)). Data focus: 1430 GMT EIA weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2521 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2574 (Friday's high), then 1.2654 (Thursday's high), 1.2709 (April 1 high), 1.2783 (March 31 high) and 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18). Support at 1.2451 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.2433-1.2426 band (Monday's low-Friday's low), then 1.2406-1.2404 (March 26 low-March 4 low), 1.2383 (Feb. 26 low) and 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weak EUR/USD undertone; diminished investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish. Support at 130.02 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 128.61 (Thursday's low), then 128.39 (April 1 low) and 128.27 (March 18 low). Resistance at 131.04 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 131.30 (Monday's high), then 131.41 (March 25 high), 131.52 (March 24 high), 131.67 (March 18 high), 131.87 (March 10 high) and 132.28 (55-day moving average).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-day low 0.7277 Tuesday. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.7277 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7251 (Thursday's low), then 0.7223-0.7218 (April 1 low-March 31 low), 0.7147 (March 19 low) and 0.7109 (March 17 low). Resistance at 0.7351 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7379-0.7385 band (Friday's high-March 25 high), then 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high), 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high) and 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 07, 2015 19:52 ET (23:52 GMT)
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