(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive yen sentiment after Koichi Hamada, an adviser to Japanese PM Abe, said the dollar's current level at Y120 is too weak for the yen considering purchasing parity. USD/JPY also weighed by flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 10.81% to 13.94, S&P 500 closed 0.46% lower at 2,092.43 overnight) as weak China trade data for March raised concerns over global growth; lower U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.536% versus 0.564% late Friday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; broadly firm dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 99.50 versus 99.28 early Monday) amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would stay on track to raise interest rates this year despite recent disappointing U.S. economic data. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. March PPI (forecast +0.2% on-month), U.S. March retail sales (forecast +1.1% on-month); 1300 GMT U.S. March NFIB index of small business optimism (forecast 98.1); 1400 GMT U.S. February business inventories (forecast +0.3% on-month). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, 5- & 15-day moving averages advancing; but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday, stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 119.68-119.65 (Monday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would target 119.45 (April 7 low), then 118.80-118.71 band (April 6 low-April 3 low), 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low) and 118.11 (Feb. 16 low). Resistance at 120.43 (hourly chart), then at 120.84 (Monday's high); breach would target 121.20 (March 20 high), then 121.53 (March 17 high), 121.67 (March 12 high), 122.04 (7.5-year high hit March 10) and 123.66 (July 9, 2007 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low 1.0520 Monday. Undermined by broadly firm dollar undertone; persistent concerns about Greece--The Financial Times reported Monday that Greece is making preparations for debt default unless there is an agreement by with international creditors by the end of April; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0900 GMT eurozone February industrial production (forecast +0.3% on-month, +0.7% on-year). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.0520 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.0457 (12-year low hit March 16)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 1.0000 line. Resistance at 1.0608 (hourly chart), then at 1.0620 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.0684 (Friday's high), then 1.0788 (Thursday's high), 1.0888 (Wednesday's high), 1.0955 (April 7 high) and 1.1036 (April 6 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low 0.7550 Monday. Undermined by weak China trade data for March; broadly firm dollar undertone; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia February lending finance, March NAB business survey. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD and stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.7550 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2), then 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7616 (hourly chart), then at 0.7678 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7720 (Friday's high), then 0.7738 (Thursday's high), 0.7757 (March 30 high), 0.7834 (March 27 high) and 0.7884 (March 26 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting eight-day low 0.7420 Monday. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; weak China March trade data; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite; weak dairy prices; NZIER quarterly survey of business opinion showing business confidence in New Zealand came off slightly in the first quarter with net 20% of firms now expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 22% in the fourth quarter. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential; 9.5% on-year rise in Reinz New Zealand House Price Index for March. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics turned bearish. Support at 0.7420 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low), then 0.7369 (March 19 low), 0.7273 (March 18 reaction low), 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low), 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low), the psychological 0.7000 line and 0.6944 (Aug. 25, 2010 low). Resistance at 0.7483 (hourly chart), then at 0.7537 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7598-0.7607 band (Friday's high-Wednesday's high), then 0.7621-0.7630 band (April 6 high-April 3 high), 0.7663 (March 26 high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate in higher range after hitting near-five-year low 1.4563 Monday. Sterling sentiment boosted by ICM opinion poll for The Guardian newspaper showing ruling Conservative Party ahead of opposition Labour party. GBP/USD also supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD gains tempered by broadly firm dollar undertone; waning investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. March CPI (forecast 0.2% on-month, +0.0% on-year), March PPI. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 1.4681 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.4724 (Friday's high), then 1.4885 (Thursday's high), 1.4972-1.4980 band (Wednesday's high-April 6 high), 1.4993 (March 26 high) and 1.5008 (March 19 high). Support at 1.4581 (hourly chart), then at 1.4563 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low), then 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low) and the psychological 1.4000 line.
USD/CHF--to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting three-week high 0.9863 Monday. Undermined by franc demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF losses tempered by broadly firm dollar undertone; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.9752-0.9747 (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9657 (Thursday's low), then 0.9592 (Wednesday's low), 0.9553 (April 7 low), 0.9493 (April 6 low), 0.9477 (April 3 low) and 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low). Resistance at 0.9863 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9984 (March 19 high), then 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high).
USD/CAD--to range-trade. Undermined by upbeat Canada March employment data; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 27 cents at $51.91/bbl Monday). But USD/CAD downside limited by broadly firm dollar undertone; loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid receding investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.2554 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2503 (Thursday's low), then 1.2384 (Wednesday's low), 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low) and 1.2186 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2645 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.2665 (Friday's high), then 1.2709 (April 1 high), 1.2783 (March 31 high) and 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-two-year low 126.50 Monday. Undermined by weak euro sentiment; flows to haven yen amid increased investor risk aversion; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 126.50 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 124.95 (June 13, 2013 reaction low), then 121.90 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 94.09-149.72 July 24, 2012-Dec. 8, 2014 advance). Resistance at 127.43 (hourly chart), then at 127.83 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 128.77 (Friday's high), then 129.75 (Thursday's high), 130.36 (Wednesday's high), 131.04 (April 7 high) and 131.30 (April 6 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7193 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7147 (March 19 low), then 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line). Resistance at 0.7269-0.7277 band (Monday's high-Thursday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7314 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7351 (April 7 high), 0.7379-0.7385 band (April 3 high-March 25 high), 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high) and 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
April 13, 2015 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
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April 13, 2015 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.