(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation higher. USD/CNY may rise even higher to the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone at 6.2290 now that it has climbed past the 20-day Bollinger mid-resistance line. Spot USD/CNY has recently been showing a positive correlation with the U.S. dollar index--regardless of the direction of the daily USD/CNY benchmark rate set by the People's Bank of China. The U.S. dollar index staged a sixth consecutive rally overnight as the New York Federal Reserve's survey of U.S. consumer spending expectations improved. If USD/CNY closes Tuesday above 6.2290 it would inside the Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone but also inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel--increasing the chance for a further rally toward the top of the Cloud at 6.2617. On Monday, China's disappointing exports data for March incited a rally in stocks as punters laid bets that the government might consider fresh monetary easing measures. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2118 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 6.1947 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2290 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2617 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud).
USD/TWD--downtrend nullified. The USD/TWD downtrend channel has been nullified, as suggested previously, after signs of bottoming out appeared on the daily chart over the last three days. Now that the Bollinger downtrend channel has been nullified--which turns it into a support level at 31.260--it could spur more USD short-covering. The price difference between the benchmark 1-month USD/TWD nondeliverable forward contract in the offshore market versus that of the spot contract has flipped to a premium from a discount, suggesting that the speculative community is now bullish on the dollar. The U.S. dollar index rose again overnight, making it the sixth consecutive rally. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.260 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.200 (psychological support), before 31.100 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.420 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 31.490 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/KRW--possible breakout. USD/KRW is still stuck inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone but a breakout may soon occur. A reactionary knee-jerk move in either direction might be triggered if USD/KRW ends Monday outside of the 1,097-1,106 Cloud consolidation range. If the pair closes above 1,106 it would also be above the 20-day Bollinger mid-resistance line thus making it more likely that USD/KRW will rise further in the near term. But if the pair falls out of the Cloud consolidation zone, the downtrend channel at 1,091 will come into view. Overnight, the U.S. dollar index rose for a sixth consecutive session, creating a bullish tone in most USD/Asia pairs Tuesday. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,096 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 1,091 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,104 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1,106 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD has slipped into the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone after the Singapore dollar rallied sharply to 1.3625 from around 1.3720 early Tuesday, implying a 0.7% rise of the currency versus the U.S. dollar, after the Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly kept its monetary policy unchanged. USD/SGD tumbled as the market capitulated on bets that the MAS could ease policy again, which would have been the second time this year since its off-cycle trading band slope-adjustment in January. Some analysts had been expecting a re-centering of the mid-point of the currency's trading band so as to weaken the Singapore dollar. Some other analysts said the MAS could take a more measured approach by widening the trading band--to achieve a similar effect. A minority had expected no change in policy. Low growth and deflation over the last four months had provided compelling arguments for monetary policy easing. Singapore's 1Q gross domestic product data published early Tuesday beat expectations; the economy grew 2.1% on-year versus forecasts for a rise of 1.7%. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3575 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1.3550 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone). Immediate resistance is at 1.3678 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance and top of daily Ichimoku Cloud), then at 1.3700 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3754 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/MYR--consolidation higher. USD/MYR is consolidating near the round-figure trading barrier of 3.7000 and just before the entrance of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel after another overnight U.S. dollar index rally. The uptrend channel which begins at 3.7060 is acting as a temporary technical resistance but if this level is breached at Tuesday's close, the daily chart will appear bullish for USD/MYR and could motivate more U.S. dollar buying. The greenback rallied overnight after the New York Federal Reserve's survey of consumer spending expectations showed improvement; recent upbeat U.S. data has kept alive hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lift interest rates this year--a positive for the dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 3.6800 (psychological support), before 3.6760 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7060 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.7370 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.7500 (psychological resistance).
USD/THB--closed.
USD/PHP--possible uptrend. USD/PHP has risen above the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone --a bullish chart signal--and may now attempt to enter the Bollinger uptrend channel that begins at 44.79. Another overnight rise of the benchmark U.S. dollar index--the sixth in a row--could provide the catalyst for USD/PHP to rally. If the pair ends the day above the Cloud, more upside is likely in the near term. Upbeat U.S. consumer spending expectations revealed by the New York Federal Reserve survey Monday could prompt more widespread short-covering of USD/PHP positions. Meanwhile, the euro remains weak, propping up the U.S. dollar index and thereby most USD/Asia pairs by proxy. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.61 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 44.56 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 44.44 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.79 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.96 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/IDR--consolidation higher. USD/IDR has lost its bearish technical bias after Monday's bounce out of the Bollinger downtrend channel. The downtrend channel entrance now acts as a support at 12,940 while the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone at 12,890 provides an extra deterrent to U.S. dollar bears. USD/IDR could gravitate higher toward the 20-day Bollinger mid-resistance line at 13,020, buoyed by overnight U.S. dollar index strength. But while U.S. Treasury yields remain under the psychological benchmark of 2.00%, the greenback may struggle to rally significantly in the near-term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,940 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 12,890 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 12,860 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 13,020 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 13,090 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/INR--closed.
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 13, 2015 20:46 ET (00:46 GMT)
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