(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.12 versus 98.40 early Wednesday) on fewer-than-expected 189,000 increase in ADP March U.S. private sector jobs (versus forecast +225,000), worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 51.5 in March from 52.9 in February (versus forecast 52.5). USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.859% versus 1.934% late Tuesday); Japan exporter sales; selling of yen crosses amid decreased investor risk appetite (S&P 500 closed 0.40% lower at 2,059.4 overnight) on the weak ADP U.S. March private sector jobs growth and ISM manufacturing activity data, and caution ahead of Friday's critical U.S. March non-farm payrolls report. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan March monetary base; 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended March 28 (forecast 285,000), 1230 GMT U.S. February trade deficit (forecast $41.5 billion); 1345 GMT U.S. March ISM-NY business index; 1400 GMT U.S. February factory orders (forecast -0.4%). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish but stochastics neutral. Support at 119.42 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 119.10 (Monday's low), then 118.93 (Friday's low), 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 119.97 (hourly chart), then at 120.33-120.37 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 121.20 (March 20 high), then 121.53 (March 17 high) and 121.67 (March 12 high).
EUR/USD--to trade with risks skewed higher. Underpinned by negative dollar sentiment; healthier-than-expected Markit final eurozone March manufacturing PMI of 52.2 (versus forecast 51.9). But EUR/USD gains tempered by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; lingering concerns about Greece; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish but stochastics in bearish mode, inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 1.0800 (Wednesday's high), then at 1.0846 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0900 (Monday's high), then 1.0949 (Friday's high), 1.1052 (March 26 high), 1.1115 (March 5 high) and 1.1185 (March 4 high). Support at 1.0718-1.0713 (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0650 (March 20 low), then 1.0613 (March 19 low), 1.0580 (March 18 low) and 1.0551 (March 17 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 0.7579 Wednesday. Undermined by weak iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $2.00 Wednesday to post-financial crisis low of $49.00/ton); Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; expectations that the RBA may cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.0% Tuesday. But AUD/USD losses tempered by negative dollar sentiment. Data focus: 2330 GMT Australia March TD Securities monthly inflation gauge; 0030 GMT Australia February job vacancies, 0030 GMT Australia February trade balance. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7579-0.7570 band (Wednesday's low-March 12 low); breach would target 0.7558 (near-six-year low hit March 11), then 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7663-0.7664 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7757 (Monday's high), then 0.7834 (Friday's high), 0.7884 (March 26 high), 0.7904 (March 25 high) and 0.7937 (March 24 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-week low 0.7390 Wednesday. NZD sentiment dented by 10.8% decrease in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and 13.3% drop in average price for whole milk powder to $2,538/mt at latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD also weighed by Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses tempered by negative dollar sentiment. Daily chart tilting negative as stochastics falling from overbought levels; MACD histogram bars turning negative; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Wednesday. Support at 0.7390 (Wednesday's low,); breach would target 0.7359 (March 19 low), then 0.7273-0.7269 (March 18 low-March 12 low), 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low) and 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7478 (hourly chart), then at 0.7490 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7511 (Tuesday's high), then 0.7565 (Monday's high), 0.7609 (Friday's high), 0.7663 (March 26 high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high).
GBP/USD--to trade with bullish bias. Sterling sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected U.K. March CIPS / Markit manufacturing PMI of 54.4 (versus forecast 54.3). GBP/USD also supported by negative dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD gains tempered by sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid waning investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. March CIPS / Markit construction PMI (forecast 59.5). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, rate-of-change momentum indicator advancing inside positive territory; but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 1.4871 (Wednesday's high, matching Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.4900 (Monday's high), then 1.4921 (Friday's high), 1.4993 (March 26 high), 1.5008 (March 19 high), 1.5121 (55-day moving average) and 1.5147 (March 18 high). Support at 1.4764 (hourly chart), then at 1.4737 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.4720 (March 20 low), then 1.4685 (March 19 low), 1.4632 (near-five-year low hit March 18), 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low) and 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low).
USD/CHF--to trade in lower range. Swissie sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected Switzerland March PMI of 47.9 (versus forecast 47.2). USD/CHF also weighed by negative dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF losses tempered by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 0.9639 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.9598 (Monday's low), then 0.9552 (Friday's low), 0.9484 (March 26 low), 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low, near 55-day and 200-day moving averages) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low). Resistance at 0.9703 (hourly chart) then at 0.9743 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.9760 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9812 (March 23 high), 0.9984 (March 19 high), 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high).
USD/CAD--to trade with bearish bias. Loonie sentiment boosted by rise in RBC Canada manufacturing PMI to 48.9 in March from 48.7 in February. USD/CAD also weighed by negative dollar sentiment; stronger oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $2.49 at $50.09/bbl Wednesday). But USD/CAD losses tempered by receding investor risk appetite. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada February trade balance (forecast C$2.0 billion deficit). Daily chart mixed as MACD in bearish mode, five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average; but stochastics neutral. Support at 1.2572 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2519 (55-day moving average), then 1.2463 (Friday's low), 1.2406-1.2404 (March 26 low-March 4 low), 1.2383 (Feb. 26 low) and 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low). Resistance at 1.2672 (hourly chart), then at 1.2709 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2783 (Tuesday's high), then 1.2834 (six-year high hit March 18), the psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-week low 128.39 Wednesday. Undermined by decreased investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but MACD in bullish mode. Support at 128.39 (Wednesday's low), then at 128.27 (March 18 low); breach would target 128.11 (March 17 low), then 126.91 (20-month low hit March 13), 124.95 (June 13, 2013 reaction low) and 121.90 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 94.09-149.72 July 24, 2012-Dec. 8, 2014 advance). Resistance at 129.36-129.45 band (hourly chart-Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 130.25 (Tuesday's high), then 130.40 (Friday's high), 131.10 (March 26 high), 131.41 (March 25 high), 131.52 (March 24 high) and 131.67 (March 18 high).
EUR/GBP--to range-trade. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics falling from overbought levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 0.7298 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.7322 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7339-0.7342 (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 0.7358 (55-day moving average), 0.7385 (March 25 high), 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high) and 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high). Support at 0.7223-0.7218 (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7147 (March 19 low), then 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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April 01, 2015 19:22 ET (23:22 GMT)
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April 01, 2015 19:22 ET (23:22 GMT)
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