(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting eight-day low 118.79 Wednesday. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.39 versus 98.78 early Wednesday) after bigger-than-expected 0.6% on-month drop in U.S. March industrial production (versus forecast -0.4%) & lower-than-expected capacity utilization of 78.4% (versus forecast 78.6%), surprise drop in Empire State's business conditions index to -1.19 in April from 6.90 in March (versus forecast for rise to 8.0). USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.500% versus 0.516% late Tuesday); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; buying of yen crosses amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 6.07% to 12.84; S&P 500 closed up 0.51% at 2,106.63 overnight) as oil prices advanced strongly (Nymex crude settled up $3.10 at $56.39/bbl Wednesday). Data & event focus: 2330 GMT Fed's Jeffrey Lacker speaks; 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended April 11 (forecast 280,000), 1230 GMT U.S. March housing starts (forecast +15.9%) and building permits (forecast -0.2%); 1400 GMT U.S. April Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (forecast +7.2); 1730 GMT Fed's Eric Rosengren speech. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Wednesday. Support 118.79-118.71 band (Wednesday's low-April 3 low); breach would target 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), then 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 119.75 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 120.17 (Tuesday's high), then 120.84 (Monday's high), 121.20 (March 20 high), 121.53 (March 17 high) and 121.67 (March 12 high).
EUR/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment; euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. But EUR/USD gains tempered by concerns about possible Greek default; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program--ECB on Wednesday left rates and its asset purchase program unchanged and ECB President Draghi reiterated his commitment to carrying out the ECB's bond-buying program in full force. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 1.0703-1.0708 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0788 (April 9 high), then 1.0888 (April 8 high), 1.0955 (April 7 high) and 1.1036 (April 6 high). Support at 1.0571 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.0531 (Tuesday's low), then 1.0520 (Monday's low), 1.0457 (12-year low hit March 16)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 1.0000 line.
AUD/USD--to trade in higher range. Spotlight Thursday on 0130 GMT Australia March unemployment rate (forecast 6.3%) and jobs change. AUD/USD underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 2.07% Wednesday at 223.57). But AUD/USD gains tempered by weaker-than-expected China March retail sales and industrial output data; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics turned bullish. Resistance at 0.7699 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7720 (Friday's high), then 0.7738 (April 9 high), 0.7757 (March 30 high) and 0.7834 (March 27 high). Support at 0.7598 (hourly chart), then at 0.7568 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7550 (Monday's low), then 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2), 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low)--below which there is no significant support until the psychological 0.7000 line.
NZD/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential. But Kiwi sentiment dented by 3.6% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and 4.3% decline in average price for whole milk powder to $2,446/mt at latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. Daily chart tilting positive as MACD and stochastics turning bullish. Resistance at 0.7615 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7630 (April 3 high), then 0.7663 (March 26 high), 0.7691-0.7695 (March 25 high-March 24 high) and 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high). Support at 0.7518 (hourly chart), then at 0.7485 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7436 (Tuesday's low), then 0.7420 (Monday's low), 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low), 0.7369 (March 19 low) and 0.7273 (March 18 reaction low).
GBP/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish. Resistance at 1.4852 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.4885 (April 9 high), then 1.4972-1.4980 band (April 8 high-April 6 high), 1.4993 (March 26 high) and 1.5008 (March 19 high). Support at 1.4742 (hourly chart), then at 1.4699 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.4601 (Tuesday's low), then 1.4563 (Monday's low), 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low), 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low) and the psychological 1.4000 line.
USD/CHF--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross and on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics falling from overbought levels; MACD histogram bars turning negative. Support at 0.9632 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.9592 (April 8 low), then 0.9553 (April 7 low), 0.9493 (April 6 low), 0.9477 (April 3 low) and 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low). Resistance at 0.9744 (hourly chart), then at 0.9770 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.9794 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9863 (Monday's high), 0.9984 (March 19 high), 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-three-month low 1.2278 Wednesday. USD/CAD tumbled Wednesday after Bank of Canada left its key interest rate steady at 0.75% and offered a relatively optimistic outlook for the Canadian economy which was more bullish than many market participants had anticipated. USD/CAD also weighed by weaker dollar sentiment; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $3.10 at $56.39/bbl Wednesday); loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment; loonie demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But loonie sentiment dented by surprise 1.7% on-month drop in Canada February manufacturing sales (versus forecast +0.3%). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada February new motor vehicle sales. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.2278 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2205 (100-day moving average), then 1.1930 (Nan. 19 low) and 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low). Resistance at 1.2457 (hourly chart), then at 1.2569 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 1.2603 (Tuesday's high), then 1.2645 (Monday's high), 1.2665 (Friday's high), 1.2709 (April 1 high) and 1.2783 (March 31 high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by positive risk sentiment; firmer EUR/USD undertone; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 127.47 (Wednesday's high), then at 127.63 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 127.83 (Monday's high), then 128.77 (Friday's high), 129.75 (April 9 high), 130.36 (April 8 high) and 131.04 (April 7 high). Support at 126.28 (Wednesday's low), then at 126.08 (Tuesday's near-two-year low); breach would reinstate negative near-term view, exposing downside to 124.95 (June 13, 2013 reaction low), then 121.90 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 94.09-149.72 July 24, 2012-Dec. 8, 2014 advance).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low 0.7162 Wednesday. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7162 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.7147 (March 19 low), then 0.7109 (March 17 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low) and 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line). Resistance at 0.7219 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7235 (Tuesday's high), then 0.7269-0.7277 band (Monday's high-April 9 high), 0.7314 (April 8 high), 0.7351 (April 7 high) and 0.7379-0.7385 band (April 3 high-March 25 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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April 15, 2015 19:13 ET (23:13 GMT)
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April 15, 2015 19:13 ET (23:13 GMT)
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