(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--possible downtrend. USD/CNY has fallen below the 20-day Bollinger mid line and may slide into the Bollinger downtrend channel after a second consecutive drop in the U.S. dollar index overnight - which the yuan has been tracking consistently of late. The dollar fell as U.S. industrial production data disappointed, casting doubt as to when the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note slipped to 1.89% from 1.90% in reaction to the poor data. If USD/CNY re-enters the Bollinger downtrend channel at 6.1985 there could be more yuan strength versus the greenback in the near-term. On Wednesday, the yuan gained slightly despite the weak China economic data released. China's economy grew 7.0% in the first quarter versus 7.3% in the previous quarter, while industrial production and retail sales were below expectations. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 6.1985 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.1900 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2071 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 6.2156 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2241 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--consolidation. Now that the USD/TWD downtrend channel has been nullified, the dollar could consolidate in a range of 31.250-31.400, supported by the entrance of the Bollinger downtrend channel and capped by the 20-day Bollinger mid line resistance. Overnight U.S. dollar index weakness - triggered by poorer-than-expected U.S. industrial data - may weigh USD/TWD lower. If the pair ends the day below 31.250 it would be inside the Bollinger downtrend channel, suggesting that the Taiwan dollar could advance against the greenback in the near term. The price difference between the benchmark 1-month USD/TWD nondeliverable forward contract in the offshore market versus that of the spot contract has gone into discount from around par on Wednesday, suggesting that the speculative community is now slightly bearish on the U.S. dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.250 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.200 (psychological support), before 31.120 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.380 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 31.490 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/KRW--downtrend. USD/KRW has tentatively entered the Bollinger downtrend channel at 1,090 following a second consecutive drop in the U.S. dollar index. Confirmation of the downtrend channel coming into effect could trigger more USD-selling that might push USD/KRW down to the 1,081 base of the channel. The greenback subsided again overnight after U.S. industrial production data failed to meet expectations. The market took that as a sign that the Federal Reserve might be less convinced to raise interest rates this year, and thus the yield on U.S. Treasurys slipped, pulling the dollar along. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,087 (weekly Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1,081 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1,080 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is 1,090 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel and round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,100 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance and round-figure trading barrier), before 1,104 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/SGD--possible downtrend. USD/SGD is on the brink of triggering a bearish chart signal. A Thursday close below 1.3551 would place the pair under the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone and also inside the Bollinger downtrend channel. Another overnight decline of the U.S. dollar index due to weaker-than-expected U.S. industrial production data could weigh USD/SGD lower Thursday. The Singapore dollar has gained significantly since the Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly kept monetary policy unchanged Tuesday; punters had been expecting the MAS to weaken the currency. As speculators capitulated on those bets, their actions sent the Singapore dollar much higher. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3551 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel and base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone), then at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3481 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3637 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1.3700 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--retreat lower. USD/MYR is likely to fall lower toward 3.6460 where the daily Ichimoku Cloud support meets the entrance of the Bollinger downtrend channel - creating a strong technical floor for the greenback. Overnight U.S. dollar weakness has plunged USD/MYR to 3.6730 from its opening of 3.7000, cracking the 20-day Bollinger mid support line in the process. The greenback is lower after a weaker-than-expected U.S. industrial production report, which also triggered a fall in yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note. Also helping the ringgit to rise against the dollar was the overnight rally of crude oil prices; the ringgit reacts to significant moves in crude oil due to Malaysia's large oil export industry. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.6500 (psychological support), then at 3.6460 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support and Bollinger downtrend channel), before 3.6200 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 3.6750 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 3.7000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.7040 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--downtrend. USD/THB has turned bearish on the daily chart now that it is below the 200-day moving average line and inside the Bollinger downtrend channel. The pair is sinking Thursday on the back of overnight U.S. dollar index weakness - triggered by lackluster U.S. industrial production data that makes it seem the U.S. Federal Reserve could hold off raising interest rates. Confirmation of the bearish chart signal in USD/THB could motivate punters to sell the dollar for the chart target at 32.28 which is the weekly Ichimoku Cloud support and also the base of the weekly Bollinger downtrend channel. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.39 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 32.28 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud support and base of weekly Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 32.45 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 32.48 (200-day moving average resistance), before 32.50 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
USD/PHP--retreat lower. USD/PHP is likely to retreat lower inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone as the Bollinger downtrend channel comes into effect. The dollar is expected to open lower following an overnight drop in the U.S. dollar index that was triggered by weaker-than-forecast U.S. industrial production data. If USD/PHP ends Thursday below 44.50 it would be inside the Bollinger downtrend channel and likely to aim for the 200-day moving average support line at 44.31 next. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.50 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 44.37 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 44.31 (200-day moving average). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.56 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone), then at 44.64 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 44.78 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--consolidation lower. USD/IDR has sunk into the Bollinger downtrend channel - a bearish chart signal - but the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone could help support the dollar for now. But a Thursday close below 12,800 would break the Cloud consolidation zone and allow USD/IDR to fall much further in the near term. Overnight U.S. dollar weakness - attributed to poor U.S. industrial production data - has hammered most USD/Asia pairs already and is likely to weigh on USD/IDR as well. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,870 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 12,800 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone), before 12,740 (weekly Bollinger mid support line). Immediate resistance is at 12,930 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 12,990 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
April 15, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
USD/INR--possible breakdown. USD/INR is likely to break down from the Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone due to a second consecutive drop in the U.S. dollar index overnight. USD/INR could fall further to enter the Bollinger downtrend channel at 62.13. Confirmation of this bearish chart signal could motivate more USD-selling in the near term. The greenback is under pressure after U.S. industrial production data disappointed, increasing the possibility that the Federal Reserve could delay its first interest rate hike. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury slipped slightly on Wednesday, reflecting the market's dovish view. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 62.26 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support and 20-day Bollinger mid line), then at 62.13 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 62.44 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), then at 62.49 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 62.67 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 15, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#DollarWeak
#DollarStrong
#IndustrialOutput
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "USD/Asia Down as U.S. Industrial Output Falls -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.