(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by softer dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.85 versus 96.94 early Monday) on weaker-than-expected Markit U.S. April flash services PMI of 57.8 (versus forecast 59.5), while expectations prevailed that the Federal Reserve would remain patient about raising interest rates its policy statement Wednesday following a number of disappointing releases in U.S. jobs growth, retail sales and manufacturing activities. USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales; flows to haven yen amid decreased investor risk tolerance (VIX fear gauge rose 6.75% to 13.12, S&P 500 closed 0.41% lower at 2,108.92 overnight). But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; higher U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.524% versus 0.512% late Friday); Fitch on Monday downgrading Japan's long-term foreign and local credit issuer rating by one notch to A from A-plus. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan March preliminary retail sales, April provisional trade statistics for 1st 10 days; 1300 GMT U.S. February S&P / Case-Shiller home price index (20-Cty forecast +4.8% on-year); 1400 GMT U.S. April Richmond Fed business activity survey; 1400 GMT U.S. April Conference Board consumer confidence index (forecast 102.5 versus March's 101.3). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 118.77 (Monday's low); breach would target 118.52 (April 20 low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 119.44 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 119.67 (Friday's high), then 120.10-120.17 band (Thursday's high-April 14 high), 120.84 (April 13 high), 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 1.0927 Monday. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment; hopes for progress in Greece's talks with its international creditors after Athens reshuffled its bailout negotiating team, withdrawing the combative finance minister Yanis Varoufakis from front line discussions. But EUR/USD gains tempered by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; waning investor risk appetite; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter near overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.0927 (Monday's high, near 55-day moving average); breach would target 1.0955 (April 7 high), than 1.1036 (April 6 high), 1.1052 (March 26 high) and 1.1240 (March 2 high). Support at 1.0819 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.0784 (Friday's low), then 1.0666-1.0660 band (Wednesday's low-April 21 low), 1.0624 (April 16 low), 1.0571 (April 15 low) and 1.0531 (April 14 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting one-month high 0.7872 Monday. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment; stronger iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rose $1.70 Monday to seven-week high $58.70/ton); month-end portfolio hedge adjustments. But AUD/USD gains tempered by diminished investor risk appetite. Data focus: 0000 GMT Australia February Conference Board leading index. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.7872 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7884 (March 26 high, near 100-day moving average), then 0.7904 (March 25 high), 0.7937 (March 24 reaction high) and 0.8025 (Jan. 28 high). Support at 0.7790 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7762 (Friday's low), then 0.7708-0.7701 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low), 0.7680 (April 21 low), 0.7668 (April 16 low), 0.7568 (April 15 low) and 0.7550 (April 13 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-day high 0.7666 Monday. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD gains tempered by caution ahead of Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary decision Thursday; decreased investor risk appetite; soft dairy prices. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 0.7666 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7737-0.7740 (Wednesday's high-April 17 high), then 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high) and 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high). Support at 0.7581 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7540-0.7535 (Friday's low-Thursday's low), then 0.7485 (April 15 low), 0.7436 (April 14 low), 0.7420 (April 13 low) and 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-two-month high 1.5261 Monday as markets await 0830 GMT U.K. 1Q flash GDP (forecast +0.5% on-quarter, +2.6% on-year). GBP/USD underpinned by polls showing Conservatives leading Labour ahead of next month's U.K. general election; weaker dollar sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But sterling sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected rise in U.K. CBI industrial order book balance to +1 in April from zero in March (versus forecast +4). GBP/USD gains also tempered by decreased investor risk appetite. Other data: 0830 GMT U.K. February monthly service sector figures, U.K. March BBA mortgage lending and approvals. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.5261 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5443 (March 2 high), then 1.5552 (Feb. 26 swing high). Support at 1.5105 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.5025 (Friday's low), then 1.4957 (Thursday's low), 1.4910 (Wednesday's low), 1.4853 (April 21 low) and 1.4810 (April 16 low).
USD/CHF--to range-trade. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF downside limited by franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 0.9498-0.9488 band (200-day moving average - Monday's low); breach would target 0.9477 (April 3 low), then 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low). Resistance at 0.9583 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9718 (Thursday's high), then 0.9770 (April 15 high), 0.9794 (April 14 high), 0.9863 (April 13 high) and 0.9984 (March 19 high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-month low 1.2078 Monday. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; Loonie demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CAD losses tempered by soft oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 16 cents at $56.99/bbl Monday); decreased investor risk appetite. Event focus: 1245 GMT Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz provides semi-annual testimony before House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. Daily chart negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday; MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.2078 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1930 (Jan. 19 low), then 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low). Resistance at 1.2116 (hourly chart), then at 1.2195 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.2268 (Thursday's high), then 1.2286 (Wednesday's high), 1.2305 (April 21 high), 1.2327 (April 16 high) and 1.2569 (April 15 high).
EUR/JPY--to range-trade. Supported by improved euro sentiment; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY upside limited by diminished investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; although inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Resistance at 129.96 (Monday's high), then at 130.12 (Friday's high); breach would target 130.36 (April 8 high), then 130.88 (55-day moving average), 131.04 (April 7 high), 131.29 (April 6 reaction high) and 131.50 (March 24 reaction high). Support at 129.04 (Monday's low), then at 128.85 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 127.89 (Thursday's low), then 127.45 (April 21 low), 126.75 (April 16 low), 126.28 (April 15 low) and 126.08 (near-two-year low hit April 14).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics reverting to bearish mode at oversold levels, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling. Support at 0.7107 (Thursday's low); breach would target 0.7090 (March 16 low), then 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line) and 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7171 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7211 (Friday's high), then 0.7242 (April 20 high), 0.7269-0.7277 band (April 13 high-April 9 high), 0.7314 (April 8 high) and 0.7351 (April 7 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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April 27, 2015 19:25 ET (23:25 GMT)
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April 27, 2015 19:25 ET (23:25 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD Soft; U.S. Consumer Confidence, U.K. GDP in Focus -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.