(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by negative USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.14 versus 95.10 early Wednesday) after fewer-than-expected 169,000 increase in ADP U.S. April private sector jobs (versus forecast +205,000), bigger-than-expected 1.9% drop in U.S. 1Q preliminary productivity (versus forecast -1.8%). USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales; flows to haven JPY amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.87% to 15.15, S&P 500 closed 0.45% lower at 2,080.15 overnight) on the weak U.S. ADP jobs data, comment from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen that equity valuations are "generally quite high," and caution ahead of the U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report Friday. But USD sentiment soothed by larger-than-expected 5.0% increase in U.S. 1Q unit labor costs (versus forecast +4.3%). USD/JPY losses also tempered by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.252% versus 2.176% late Tuesday); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan April monetary base, 0135 GMT Japan April services PMI, 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended May 2 (forecast 275,000); 1900 GMT U.S. March consumer credit (forecast +$16.0 billion). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 119.20 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.50 (April 30 low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 120.05 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 120.51 (Tuesday's high), then 120.84 (April 13 high), 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-month high 1.1371 Wednesday. Supported by negative USD sentiment; higher German 10-year bund yields (10-year rose 9.2 bps to near-five-month high 0.609% Wednesday); stronger-than-expected Markit final eurozone April services PMI of 54.1 (versus forecast 53.7) and composite PMI of 53.9 (versus forecast 53.6); euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment dented by surprise 0.8% on-month drop in eurozone March retail sales (versus forecast +0.1%). EUR/USD gains also tempered by lingering concerns about Greece; increased risk aversion; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany March manufacturing orders (forecast +1.1% on-month); 0810 GMT eurozone April retail PMI. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; stochastics reverted to bullish mode at overbought levels. Resistance at 1.1371 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.1388 (Feb. 25 high), then 1.1450 (Feb. 19 high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high). Support at 1.1316 (hourly chart), then at 1.1175 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.1066 (Tuesday's low), then 1.0959 (April 29 low), 1.0860 (April 28 low), 1.0819 (April 27 low) and 1.0784 (April 24 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting one-week high 0.8030 Wednesday as markets await 0130 GMT Australia April jobless rate (forecast 6.2%) and employment change (forecast +5,000). AUD/USD supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may have come to the end of its easing cycle; negative USD sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; stronger iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rose $1.00 Wednesday to two-month high $60.10/ton). But AUD/USD gains tempered by Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Other data: 0630 GMT Australia April official reserve assets. Daily chart tilting positive as MACD in bullish mode; stochastics turning bullish; five-day moving average turning upward above advancing 15-day moving average. Resistance at 0.8030 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.8075 (April 29 high), then 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high), 0.8295 (Jan. 15 reaction high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 high). Support at 0.7915 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7795-0.7790 (Tuesday's low-April 27 low), then 0.7762 (April 24 low), 0.7708-0.7701 band (April 23 low-April 22 low), 0.7680 (April 21 reaction low) and 0.7568 (April 15 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 0.7457 Wednesday. Undermined by soft New Zealand 1Q unemployment data; weak dairy prices; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by negative USD sentiment; NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7457 (Wednesday's low), then at 0.7436 (April 14 low); breach would target 0.7420 (April 13 reaction low), then 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low) and 0.7273 (March 18 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7551 (hourly chart), then at 0.7569-0.7577 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7627 (Friday's high), then 0.7744 (April 29 high), 0.7790 (200-day moving average), 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high) and 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-day high 1.5290 Wednesday. Sterling sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected U.K. April CIPS / Markit services PMI of 59.5 (versus forecast 58.5). GBP/USD also underpinned by negative USD sentiment. But GBP/USD gains tempered by uncertainty over outcome of today's U.K. general election; increased risk aversion; sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode; but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 1.5290 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5396 (Friday's high), then 1.5490-1.5496 band (April 30 high-April 29 high), 1.5552 (Feb. 26 swing high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high) and 1.5658 (200-day moving average). Support at 1.5199 (hourly chart), then at 1.5149 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5087 (Tuesday's low), then 1.5025 (April 24 low), 1.4957 (April 23 low) and 1.4853 (April 21 reaction low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-month low 0.9111 Wednesday. Undermined by negative USD sentiment; franc demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF losses tempered by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0545 GMT Switzerland April quarterly consumer sentiment index, 0700 GMT Switzerland April SNB foreign currency reserves. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling. Support at 0.9111 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.9070 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128), then 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low) and 0.8744 (50.0% Fibonacci correction). Resistance at 0.9261 (hourly chart), then at 0.9282 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.9413 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9447 (April 30 high), 0.9574 (April 29 high), 0.9599 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 high).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-four-month low 1.1938 Wednesday. Loonie sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected Canada April Ivey PMI of 58.2 (versus forecast 49.2). USD/CAD also weighed by negative USD sentiment; stronger oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 53 cents at $60.93/bbl Wednesday). But USD/CAD downside limited by increased investor risk aversion; loonie sales on cross trades versus major currencies except NZD. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada March building permits. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish; but five-day moving average meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average. Support at 1.1938-1.1930 band (Wednesday's low-Jan. 19 low); breach would expose downside to 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low), then 1.1734 (200-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2087 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2131 (Tuesday's high), then 1.2180 (Monday's high), 1.2204 (Friday's high), 1.2268 (April 23 high) and 1.2286 (April 22 high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-and-a-half month high 135.69 Wednesday. Supported by buoyant EUR/USD undertone; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by flows to haven yen amid increased risk aversion; Japan exporter sales. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; stochastics reverted to bullish mode at overbought levels. Resistance 135.69 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 135.93 (Feb. 23 high), then 136.23 (Feb. 17 high), 136.68 (Feb. 12 reaction high) and 137.32 (200-day moving average). Support at 134.20 (hourly chart), then at 134.07 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 133.12 (Tuesday's low), then 131.29 (April 30 low), 130.28 (April 29 low), 129.38 (April 28 low) and 129.04 (April 27 low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 06, 2015 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-three-month high 0.7449 Wednesday. Daily chart positive-biased as five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.7449-0.7459 band (Wednesday's high-Feb. 9 high); breach would expose downside to 0.7591 (Feb. 3 reaction high), then 0.7669 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.7359 (Wednesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7306-0.7296 band (Tuesday's low-Friday's low), then 0.7254 (55-day moving average), 0.7180 (April 30 low), 0.7128-0.7123 (April 29 low-April 28 low) and 0.7107 (April 23 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 06, 2015 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
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