(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate in higher range as markets await 1230 GMT U.S. April non-farm payrolls (forecast +228,000), unemployment rate (forecast 5.4%) and average hourly earnings (forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY buoyed by improved USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.60 versus 94.14 early Thursday) after fewer-than-expected 265,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended May 2 (forecast 275,000), larger-than-expected $20.52 billion increase in U.S. March consumer credit (versus forecast +$16.0 billion). USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid diminished risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 0.13% to 15.13; S&P 500 closed up 0.38% at 2,088.00 overnight). But USD/JPY gains tempered by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.178% versus 2.240% late Wednesday); Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Yen crosses vulnerable to China April trade data due out around 0200 GMT (surplus forecast $42.9 billion, exports forecast +2.5% on-year, imports forecast -10.0% on-year). Other data & event focus: 2350 GMT Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes; 1345 GMT Fed's William Dudley speaks; 1400 GMT U.S. March monthly wholesale trade (forecast +0.4%). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Resistance at 119.86 (Thursday's high); breach would target 120.05 (Wednesday's high), then 120.51 (Tuesday's high), 120.84 (April 13 high), 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high). Support at 119.05 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 118.50 (April 30 low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-month high 1.1392 Thursday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. EUR/USD undermined by improved USD sentiment; retreating German bund yields; weaker-than-expected 0.9% on-month increase in Germany March manufacturing orders (versus forecast +1.1%); euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR/USD losses tempered by diminished risk aversion; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany March industrial production index (forecast +1.1% on-month), 0600 GMT Germany March trade balance (forecast EUR19.8 billion surplus). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.1228 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 1.1175 (Wednesday's low), then 1.1066 (Tuesday's low), 1.0959 (April 29 low), 1.0860 (April 28 low), 1.0819 (April 27 low) and 1.0784 (April 24 low). Resistance at 1.1289 (hourly chart), then at 1.1392 (Thursday's high); breach would reinstate positive near-term view, exposing upside to 1.1450 (Feb. 19 high), then 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate in lower range as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. AUD/USD undermined by improved USD sentiment; softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.49% at 226.82 Thursday). But AUD/USD losses tempered by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may have come to the end of its easing cycle; reduced risk aversion; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Aussie vulnerable to China April trade data due out around 0200 GMT. Other data: 0130 GMT Reserve Bank of Australia quarterly statement on monetary policy. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral; five-day moving average meandering sideways. Support at 0.7886 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7795-0.7790 (Tuesday's low-April 27 low), then 0.7762 (April 24 low), 0.7708-0.7701 band (April 23 low-April 22 low), 0.7680 (April 21 reaction low) and 0.7568 (April 15 low). Resistance at 0.7972 (hourly chart), then at 0.8004 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.8030 (Wednesday's high), then 0.8075 (April 29 high), 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high), 0.8295 (Jan. 15 reaction high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 0.7423 Thursday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. NZD/USD undermined by improved USD sentiment; continued impact from soft New Zealand 1Q unemployment data; weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7423-0.7420 (Thursday's low-April 13 reaction low); breach would target 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low), then 0.7273 (March 18 reaction low) and 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low). Resistance at 0.7490 (hourly chart), then at 0.7526 (Thursday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7569-0.7577 band (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high), then 0.7627 (May 1 high), 0.7744 (April 29 high), 0.7784 (200-day moving average), 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high) and 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-day high 1.5446 this morning as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Sterling sentiment boosted after U.K. election exit-poll results indicated Conservative Party will win largest number of seats in parliament. GBP/USD also supported by sterling demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But GBP/USD gains tempered by improved USD sentiment; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. March global goods trade balance (forecast GBP9.3 billion deficit). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.5446 (this morning high); breach would target 1.5496 (April 29 reaction high), 1.5552 (Feb. 26 swing high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high), 1.5634 (200-day moving average) and 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high). Support at 1.5240 (hourly chart), then at 1.5162 (Thursday's low); breach would target 1.5149 (Wednesday's low), then 1.5087 (Tuesday's low), 1.5025 (April 24 low), 1.4957 (April 23 low) and 1.4853 (April 21 reaction low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate in higher range after hitting three-month low 0.9065 Thursday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. USD/CHF underpinned by improved USD sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0545 GMT Switzerland April unemployment, 0715 GMT Switzerland April CPI (forecast +0.1% on-month, +-0.9% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels, bullish hammer candlestick pattern completed Thursday. Resistance at 0.9228 (Thursday's high), then at 0.9282 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9413 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9447 (April 30 high), 0.9574 (April 29 high), 0.9599 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 high). Support at 0.9065 (Thursday's low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128); breach would expose downside to 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low), then 0.8744 (50.0% Fibonacci correction).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias as markets await 1230 GMT U.S. non-farm payrolls report; 1230 GMT Canada April jobless rate (forecast 6.9%) and employment change (forecast -5000). USD/CAD supported by improved USD sentiment; weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.99 at $58.94/bbl Thursday). But loonie sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected 11.6% on-month increase in Canada March building permits (versus forecast +2.0%). USD/CAD gains also tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Other data: 1215 GMT Canada April housing starts. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics rising from oversold levels, MACD histogram bars turned positive. Resistance at 1.2162 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.2180 (Monday's high), then 1.2204 (May 1 reaction high), 1.2268 (April 23 high) and 1.2305 (April 21 reaction high). Support at 1.2028 (Thursday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.1938-1.1930 band (Wednesday's low-Jan. 19 low), then 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low) and 1.1740 (200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate in lower range after hitting near-three-month high 135.99 Thursday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. EUR/JPY undermined by weaker EUR/USD undertone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; diminished risk aversion; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels, bearish dark-cloud-cover candlestick pattern completed Thursday. Support at 134.21 (Thursday's low); breach would target 134.07 (Wednesday's low), then 133.12 (Tuesday's low), 131.29 (April 30 low), 130.28 (April 29 low), 129.38 (April 28 low) and 129.04 (April 27 low). Resistance 135.13 (hourly chart), then at 135.99 (Thursday's high); breach would target 136.23 (Feb. 17 high), then 136.68 (Feb. 12 reaction high) and 137.30 (200-day moving average).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 07, 2015 19:30 ET (23:30 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to trade with bearish bias as exit polls pointing to victory for Conservative Party in U.K. election boosts sterling sentiment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.7273 (this morning low); breach would target 0.7252 (55-day moving average), then 0.7180 (April 30 low), 0.7128-0.7123 (April 29 low-April 28 low) and 0.7107 (April 23 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7394 (hourly chart), then at 0.7482 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7591 (Feb. 3 reaction high), then 0.7665 (200-day moving average).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 07, 2015 19:30 ET (23:30 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD Up Ahead of Payrolls; Likely Tories Win Boosts GBP -- Asia Daily Forex Outlok"
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