(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation higher. USD/CNY could rise toward the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 6.2109 on the overnight rise of the U.S. dollar index - triggered by better-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims data which hint at a strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report due later today. The yuan has been somewhat stable despite the steep 3-day slide of stocks on the Shanghai exchange, but as global risk aversion brews, it could start to falter along with other Asia currencies. The catalyst for greater volatility in the yuan could be the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data which if stronger than forecast would skew the market's perception toward a U.S. Federal Reserve rate rise this year, and could therefore spark a U.S. dollar rally that would make the yuan relatively weaker. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2042 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 6.1976 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2109 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2150 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 6.2176 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--downtrend may end. USD/TWD may test the ceiling of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel at 30.810 on the overnight rebound of the U.S. dollar index. The greenback may face short-covering before today's U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April - which could be stronger than forecast, based on the weekly initial jobless claims data published Thursday. The USD/TWD pair will lose its current bearish chart bias if it ends Friday above 30.810, and could then embark on a short-covering rally toward the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line at 31.030. If the U.S. non-farm payrolls report indeed surprises stronger, it could steer the U.S. Federal Reserve toward an interest rate hike this year - a positive factor for the greenback. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.600 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 30.500 (psychological support), before 30.350 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 30.810 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 31.030 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
USD/KRW--possible uptrend. USD/KRW may attempt to rise into the Bollinger uptrend channel after Thursday's strong rally past the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line. The overnight rebound of the U.S. dollar index could supply the momentum for USD/KRW to rally again. A Friday close above 1,093 would confirm the bullish cue of the Bollinger uptrend channel and set the pair on a path toward 1,104 where the Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone awaits. The greenback rose overnight on a better-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims report - which bodes well for the keenly-awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April due later today. If today's U.S. jobs data beats forecasts, it would spark another U.S. dollar rally as the odds increase for a rise in U.S. interest rate this year. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,084 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 1,080 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is 1,094 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,104 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/SGD--consolidation higher. The bearish bias of USD/SGD, which was triggered Wednesday, has abruptly ended due to the overnight rise of the U.S. dollar index. The pair may now consolidate higher toward the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line at 1.3384. The greenback has been choppy ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due later today, with a couple of preceding employment reports giving the market mixed cues. Wednesday's disappointing ADP jobs survey was followed by the stronger-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims on Thursday - which boosted the dollar broadly. If today's non-farm payrolls indeed surprises higher, USD/SGD could be fuelled higher toward the Bollinger uptrend channel that begins at 1.3526. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3300 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3250 (psychological support), before 1.3240 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is 1.3350 (psychological resistance), then at 1.3384 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--consolidation higher. The overnight rebound of the U.S. dollar index, ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report today, suggests that USD/MYR will rally. The dollar rose broadly overnight on the better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims report - which bodes well for today's jobs data. The four-week moving average for weekly jobless claims data has hit a 15-year low, suggesting that job creation is on the rise. If today's April non-farm payrolls report affirms this trend, the dollar may rally again on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lift interest rates this year. On Thursday, Malaysia's central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected. Bank Negara Malaysia said domestic demand remains strong while inflation is expected to trend higher. March export data released Thursday surprised higher to boost the ringgit slightly, despite low crude oil prices during the month. April's data could be more positive due to the rise in crude oil prices, and could thus prop up the ringgit on dips. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.5800 (psychological support), then at 3.5630 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 3.5500 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 3.6000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 3.6130 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 3.6340 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB hit a fresh high overnight, rising to a level not seen since October 2009 - making the baht the weakest against the dollar in 5.5-years. The catalyst for the move was the better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims data, which bodes well for the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report due later. The greenback is likely to rally even higher should today's U.S. jobs data beat expectations as well, which would make it more likely that U.S. interest rates will rise this year. Meanwhile, the baht remains depressed due to the dovish stance of the Bank of Thailand and the government's efforts to ease investment outflows so as to weaken the currency for greater export competitiveness. The BOT cut interest rates again last week for the second time this year due to slowing economic growth. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.50 (psychological support), then at 33.20 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 33.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 33.61 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.80 (psychological resistance), before 34.00 (round-figure trading resistance).
USD/PHP--uptrend. USD/PHP is likely on the rise now that the pair is above the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone and also inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel. The pair may get a further boost from the overnight rise of the U.S. dollar index - triggered by the better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims data, which bodes well for the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report due later. USD/PHP might rally toward 45.00 as punters unwind short-USD positions that may have been placed just a day ago when the U.S. ADP jobs report disappointed against forecasts. A strong U.S. non-farm payrolls number would make it more likely that U.S. interest rates will rise this year. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.59 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.58 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 44.45 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.76 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 44.80 (psychological resistance), before 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/IDR--uptrend. USD/IDR hit a two-month high Thursday and may keep rising on increasingly bullish chart signals. The pair is inside the Bollinger uptrend channel and with Thursday's spike is now also above the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone. The U.S. dollar is broadly higher Friday as it undergoes short-covering before the U.S. non-farm payrolls report later today. A better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims data released overnight bodes well for the U.S. April jobs report due later. The rupiah slumped 0.9% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after Indonesia's vice-president at a conference in Jakarta said that interest rates should be eased - though Bank Indonesia governor at the same conference suggested that policy will be kept on hold for now. The recent global bond selloff has also impacted the rupiah. Indonesia's high-yielding bonds are a favorite for foreign investors, but when they trim their holdings, they typically cause a large outflow that depreciates the local currency. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,020 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 12,950 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 07, 2015 21:06 ET (01:06 GMT)
resistance is at 13,200 (psychological resistance), before 13,270 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/INR--uptrend. USD/INR is likely to keep rising as key U.S. jobs data due later looks likely to surprise stronger, increasing the chances of a U.S. interest rate increase this year. A better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims data released overnight bodes well for the U.S. April non-farm payrolls report due later. On Thursday, USD/INR rose to its highest since September 2013, implying a 1.5-year low for the India rupee versus the U.S. dollar, as India government bonds mimicked the selloff in bond markets worldwide. The possibility of a global deleveraging trend taking root has depressed the rupee and other high-yielding emerging market currencies as traders pre-empt the outflows from foreign investors that might be coming. The USD/INR daily chart remains bullish, implying that the rupee likely keeps weakening, as long as the U.S. dollar ends Friday above 63.73. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.73 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 63.50 (psychological support), before 63.17 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is likely at 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 64.29 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 64.50 (psychological resistance).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 07, 2015 21:06 ET (01:06 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Up Before U.S. Jobs Data; Bonds Selloff -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
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