(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-three-week high 120.29 Friday. Liquidity thin in Asia and Europe today as financial markets in Japan and U.K. are shut for public holidays. USD/JPY underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 95.25 versus 94.84 early Friday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.117% versus 2.044% late Thursday), helped by comment from Fed's Mester that she's not yet willing to rule out supporting a rise in rates at the central bank's June policy meeting despite data showing a very weak start to growth in 2015. Ms. Mester said that when it comes to boosting rates off their current near zero levels, "all meetings are on the table." USD/JPY also supported by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 12.71% to 12.7; S&P 500 closed up 1.09% at 2,108.29 Friday). But USD sentiment dented by surprise 0.6% on-month drop in U.S. March construction spending (versus forecast +0.5%), weaker-than-expected U.S. April ISM manufacturing PMI of 51.5 (versus forecast 52.0). USD/JPY gains tempered by buy-yen orders from Japan exporters. Yen crosses vulnerable to 0145 GMT HSBC final China April manufacturing PMI data. Other data and even focus: 1345 GMT U.S. April ISM-NY business index, 1400 GMT U.S. March factory orders, 1625 GMT Fed's Evans speech. Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics bullish; MACD histogram bars turned positive; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Resistance at 120.29 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 120.84 (April 13 high), then 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high). Support at 119.38 (Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 118.50 (Thursday's low), then 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting two-month high 1.1290 Friday. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. But EUR/USD losses tempered by euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross; signs for progress in Greece's talks with its international creditors; improved risk sentiment. Data focus: 0755 GMT Markit final Germany April manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.9), 0800 GMT Markit final eurozone April manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.9). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, 5- & 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern completed Friday. Support at 1.1174 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1071 (Thursday's low), then 1.0959 (Wednesday's low), 1.0860 (Tuesday's low), 1.0819 (April 27 low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0666-1.0660 band (April 22 low-April 21 low). Resistance at 1.1290 (Friday's high, near 100-day moving average); breach would reinstate positive near-term view, exposing upside to 1.1388 (Feb. 25 high), then 1.1450 (Feb. 19 high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting four-day low 0.7801 Friday. Undermined by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Tuesday; broadly firmer dollar undertone; soft commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.67% at 227.95 Friday). But AUD/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk appetite. Aussie vulnerable to 0145 GMT HSBC final China April manufacturing PMI data. Other data: 0030 GMT Australia April TD Securities monthly inflation gauge, 0130 GMT Australia April ANZ job ads, 0130 GMT Australia March building approvals. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 0.7801 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.7790 (April 27 low), then 0.7762 (April 24 low), 0.7708-0.7701 band (April 23 low-April 22 low) and 0.7680 (April 21 low). Resistance at 0.7917 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8022 (Thursday's high), then 0.8075 (Wednesday's high), 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high), 0.8295 (Jan. 15 reaction high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-week low 0.7503 Friday. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone; dovish shift in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance; weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk appetite; NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish; MACD histogram bars turned negative; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit Friday. Support at 0.7503 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.7485 (April 15 low), then 0.7436 (April 14 low), 0.7420 (April 13 reaction low) and 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7627 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7744 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high, near 200-day moving average), 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high), 0.7910 (Dec. 2 high) and 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Financial markets in U.K. are shut Monday for a public holiday. GBP/USD undermined by weaker-than-expected U.K. April CIPS / Markit manufacturing PMI of 51.9 (versus forecast 54.5); broadly firmer dollar undertone; jitters ahead of May 7 U.K. election; sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.5112-1.5105 band (Friday's low-April 27 low); breach would expose downside to 1.5025 (April 24 low), then 1.4957 (April 23 low) and 1.4910 (April 22 low). Resistance at 1.5298 (hourly chart), then at 1.5396 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5490-1.5496 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high), then 1.5552 (Feb. 26 swing high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high) and 1.5667 (200-day moving average).
USD/CHF--to consolidate in higher range after hitting near-three-month low 0.9272 Friday. Supported by broadly firmer dollar undertone; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0730 GMT Switzerland April PMI. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 0.9353 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9447 (Thursday's high), then 0.9574 (Wednesday's high), 0.9599 (Tuesday's high), 0.9718 (April 23 high) and 0.9770 (April 15 high). Support at 0.9272 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9193 (Feb. 9 low), then 0.9169 (Feb. 6 reaction low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-day high 1.2204 Friday. Supported by broadly firmer dollar undertone; softer oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 48 cents at $59.15/bbl Friday). But USD/CAD gains tempered by improved investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2204 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2268 (April 23 high), then 1.2286 (April 22 high), 1.2305 (April 21 high) and 1.2327 (April 16 high). Support at 1.2059 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1993 (Thursday's low), then 1.1942 (Wednesday's three-month low), 1.1930 (Jan. 19 low) and 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-month high 135.29 Friday. EUR/JPY underpinned by buoyant USD/JPY undertone; improved investor risk appetite. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by sell-euro orders from Japan exporters. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance 135.29 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 135.93 (Feb. 23 high), then 136.23 (Feb. 17 high) and 136.68 (Feb. 12 reaction high). Support at 133.91 (Friday's low; breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 131.29 (Thursday's low), then 130.28 (Wednesday's low), 129.38 (Tuesday's low), 129.04 (April 27 low), 128.85 (April 24 low) and 127.89 (April 23 low).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-month high 0.7419 Friday. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter near overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.7419-0.7427 band (Friday's high-Feb. 20 high); breach would target 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high, near 100-day moving average), then 0.7459 (Feb. 9 high) and 0.7591 (Feb. 3 reaction high). Support at 0.7296 (Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7180 (Thursday's low), then 0.7128-0.7123 (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low), 0.7107 (April 23 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low) and 0.7031 (March 12 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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May 03, 2015 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
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May 03, 2015 19:42 ET (23:42 GMT)
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