(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation higher. USD/CNY is likely to bob upward as the benchmark U.S. dollar index bounced on Friday on the back of another rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Spot USD/CNY could rise within its current consolidation range of 6.1958-6.2098. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 2.12% on Friday, implying that the market thinks U.S. interest rates might rise, thus spooking short-USD positions. Traders are focused on China's HSBC manufacturing PMI data due at 0.145 GMT, but the highlight of the week will most likely be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 6.1958 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.1888 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 6.2028 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 6.2098 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2168 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--consolidation within downtrend. USD/TWD may creep up toward the ceiling of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel as the greenback rebounds broadly on the back of higher U.S. Treasury yields. A Monday close above 30.940 would nullify the bearish chart signal of the downtrend channel and this could spark a further short-covering rally. The USD/TWD pair is showing supportive traits on the daily chart with Friday's failure to mark a new daily low - after four consecutive drops. The pricing of the 1-month nondeliverable forward contract in the offshore market suggests that the speculative community is neutral-to-slightly-bullish on the U.S. dollar. Taiwan releases its manufacturing PMI for April at 0200 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 30.740 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 30.500 (psychological support), before 30.350 (weekly Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 30.800 (psychological resistance), then at 30.940 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/KRW--rebound and consolidation higher. The bearish chart bias for USD/KRW has likely ended with Monday's sharp rebound of the U.S. dollar on the heels of the significant rise of the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield on Friday. The USD/KRW pair gapped higher Monday to open at 1,080.0 versus its Friday close of 1,072.4 and is now well out of the Bollinger downtrend channel. A Monday close above 1,076 would confirm that the bearish chart bias has ended, and this could spur U.S. dollar-shorts to cover their positions - which could power USD/KRW up to 1,090 in the near term. The South Korea won may also be under pressure due to the weakening of the manufacturing sector seen in the HSBC PMI released earlier; the index fell to 48.8 in April versus 49.2 in March, signifying a further contraction of the manufacturing sector. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,080 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,076 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1,070 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is 1,085 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--downtrend may end. The bearish bias for USD/SGD could end if the pair closes Monday above 1.3302 and thus out of the Bollinger downtrend channel. The greenback is rebounding broadly with Friday's significant rise of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. If the Bollinger downtrend channel is nullified, it could trigger more USD-short covering in the days ahead that might fuel the pair up to 1.3446 where the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance line awaits. Singapore releases its April manufacturing PMI data at 1300 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3288 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1.3200 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3131 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 1.3300 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3350 (psychological resistance), before 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--closed.
USD/THB--closed.
USD/PHP--possible bullish bias. USD/PHP is likely to climb again after Friday's rise in yield of the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note to 2.12%. The USD/PHP pair could trigger a bullish technical bias if it closes Monday above 44.57 - which would place it inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel and above the Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone. The pair might then target the 45.00 round-figure trading barrier next. The rise in yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury signifies that traders think the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates - which would make it more expensive to be short the greenback and could thus spark widespread covering of those positions. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.49 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone), then at 44.41 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 44.33 (200-day moving average). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.57 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel and top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), then at 44.73 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/IDR--possible bullish bias. USD/IDR may attempt to rally into the daily Bollinger uptrend channel at 12,975, fuelled by Friday's rebound of the U.S. dollar index on rising U.S. Treasury yields. A Monday close above 12,975 would confirm a bullish chart bias that could motivate short-term traders to buy the U.S. dollar. If the greenback's rally extends higher and manages to pierce the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone at 13,040 the near-term bullish chart bias would strengthen. Indonesia releases its April manufacturing PMI data at 0300 GMT - a weak reading could add fuel for a USD/IDR rally. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,930 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 12,890 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 12,850 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 12,975 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 13,015 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,040 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
USD/INR--uptrend. With Friday's rally of the U.S. dollar index, USD/INR is likely to retain its bullish chart bias within the Bollinger uptrend channel. The pair is likely to keep climbing toward the round-figure trading barrier at 64.00 as the greenback rallies broadly after the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.12% on Friday. The rise in Treasury yield signifies that the market is anticipating the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. India releases its April manufacturing PMI at 0500 GMT - a weak number could make the case for another interest rate cut in India, as has already been suggested by the Reserve Bank of India. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.40 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 63.20 (psychological support), before 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.80 (psychological resistance), then at 63.94 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 03, 2015 20:53 ET (00:53 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Rallies on U.S. Yields, PMI Data Due -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook "
Thanks for give comment.