EUR Remains Vulnerable; JPY Corrects Higher

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The recovery from Tuesday's low at 1.1135 is struggling to make an impression, especially while resistance at 1.1241 caps the upside. Tuesday's bearish marubozu candle makes the subsequent rally to 1.1235 look pale in comparison, and a fresh attack on 1.1135 would increase the prospects of a strong downward break. The daily chart remains dominated by the recently-completed three-week bearish diagonal triangle pattern, and a push below 1.1135 would then expose the June 5 higher low at 1.1049. Respite would only be achieved on a break above projected resistance at 1.1253, although more resistance at 1.1268 and 1.1294 loom large overhead.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Presses lower during Friday's Asian session, to challenge support at 123.15. The bear wave from Wednesday's bear hammer candle high at 124.38 keeps the key June 17 high at 124.46 out of reach, and support at 123.15 and 123.03 are at risk during this corrective setback. However, the two reaction lows at 122.46 and 122.47 aren't vulnerable at this stage, while additional support at 122.80 holds. Recapturing ground above 123.66 and 123.89 is required to put bulls back in control of the near-term, opening the 124.38/124.46 highs.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The key 1.5635/50 support area is holding, offering near-term GBP bulls the opportunity to test resistance at 1.5775. GBP bulls are underpinned by the successful defence of 1.5546, which is the 50% Fibonacci level of the broader 1.5172 to 1.5930 rally. That said, bulls need to force a break above 1.5775 and 1.5825, in order to open the June 18 reaction high at 1.5930.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Thursday's bull trap high at 0.9417 conversely helps to strengthen the bear failure at last week's 0.9151 low. USD bulls will remain in control while support at 0.9330 holds, and renewed pressure on 0.9417 would lead to further gains to 0.9460. The June 5 lower high at 0.9502 would also be brought into view. Only a sustained break below 0.9330 would question the bullish outlook, exposing 0.9270 and potentially 0.9225.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Thursday's cap at 0.7147 brings Tuesday's four-week low at 0.7081 back into the immediate picture. EUR bears are threatening to extend the powerful decline from the June 9 high at 0.7388, and a push below 0.7081 would expose the May 27 reaction low at 0.7057. The Mar. 11 base at 0.7015 would also become vulnerable. Resistance at 0.7160/70 indicates limited scope for corrective gains.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Thursday's three-week low at 137.66 is braced for renewed pressure, despite the day's bull hammer candle. The downward breach of 138.00 generated two measured objectives at 137.61 and 137.21 - the 137.61 target coinciding with the falling support line of a three-week bear channel. The deeper objective of 137.21 is derived from the recent double-top formation at the 140.67/140.63 highs, as well as a key projected support level. Resistance at 138.80 and 139.25 would have to be broken in order to improve the outlook, opening 139.90.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The strong rejection of Thursday's spike high at 1.0546 highlights the difficulty for EUR bulls to regain a foothold above the 1.05 level. The setback from 1.0546 meant the breach of a three-week falling resistance trendline has not been validated, and EUR bears are defending the June 4 peak at 1.0574. Support at 1.0450 is now the main protector of the recent 1.0404/06 lows.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Tuesday's low at 0.7679 remains vulnerable to renewed pressure, and is a pivotal support level. The consolidation phase above 0.7679 has taken the shape of a bear pennant continuation pattern, and a push below 0.7679 would lead to a push lower to 0.7643 and 0.7623, while exposing the early June reaction lows at 0.7598 and 0.7599. Recapturing ground above 0.7753 is required to defer the bearish outlook, although last week's high at 0.7849 bears the hallmarks of a significant bull failure.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        It is with disappointment to report the closure of this Technical Analysis column in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their invaluable support over the past six years.
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 26, 2015 02:32 ET (06:32 GMT)