GBP Correcting Lower

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The recovery from Tuesday's low at 1.1135 is struggling to make an impression, especially while resistance at 1.1241 caps the upside. Tuesday's bearish marubozu candle makes Wednesday's minor recovery a bearish inside day, leaving support at 1.1135 vulnerable, and the daily chart remains dominated by the recently-completed three-week bearish rising diagonal triangle pattern. Loss of 1.1135 would then expose the June 5 higher low at 1.1049. Respite would be achieved on a break above 1.1241, but resistance at 1.1268 and 1.1294 further hamper corrective upside scope.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Consolidates lower, after faltering shy of the key June 17 high at 124.46. Wednesday's bear hammer candle has been confirmed, and allowance for corrective weakness to the 123.38/123.44 support area is on offer. However, the broader-term tone remains positive for USD, because the June 18 reaction low at 122.47 is part of a double-bottom base that incorporates the June 10 low at 122.46, and a push above 124.46 would complete the trend-reversal pattern, initially opening 124.92 and 125.32. Those 122.46/122.47 lows would only become vulnerable on a break below 122.80.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The bear wave from the June 18 peak at 1.5930 extends, bringing the 1.5635/50 support area closer. However, the move lower is still considered corrective, especially while the midpoint of the broader 1.5172 to 1.5930 rally at 1.5546 remains intact. Three nodes of resistance at 1.5740, 1.5775 and 1.5825 dominate this week's Market Profile chart.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Wednesday's inside day maintains the pressure on Tuesday's seven-day high at 0.9388. It was Tuesday's upward breach of 0.9384 that consigned the June 15 reaction low at 0.9151 to bear failure status, and a push above 0.9388 would prompt further gains to 0.9410 and 0.9460. Weakness will attract support while above 0.9270, and strong backup lies at 0.9205.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Wednesday's rally defers the main threat of a downtrend extension to the May 27 reaction low at 0.7057. Tuesday's four-week low at 0.7081 will remain vulnerable while resistance at 0.7165 caps the upside, and the powerful bear wave from the June 9 reaction high at 0.7388 also has the Mar. 11 base at 0.7015 in its sights. Resistance at 0.7210/19 provides back-up for 0.7165.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The impasse between the June peaks at 141.06/141.02 and the June 12 reaction low at 138.00 is set to be resolved to the downside. The 138.00 floor remains under scrutiny, and Tuesday's weakness helped to define two measured downside objectives below 138.00, at 137.61 and 137.21 - the latter is derived from the recent double-top formation at the 140.67/140.63 highs. Resistance at 139.25/139.35 and 139.90 restrict corrective upside risk.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Resistance at 1.0480 is under threat, although there is little momentum behind the recovery from Monday's 1.0406 low. A break above 1.0480 would open a wave equality target at 1.0492, but a three-week falling resistance line continues to keep a lid on recoveries, lying at 1.0517 during Thursday's session. Loss of 1.0424 would expose the 1.0404/06 lows, while threatening a deeper setback towards 1.0350.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Tuesday's low at 0.7679 is a pivotal support level, which remains vulnerable to renewed pressure. The setback from Wednesday's high at 0.7771 is threatening to extend the bear wave from the June 18 peak at 0.7849, and concerted bear pressure on 0.7679 would likely lead to a push lower to 0.7643 and 0.7623. Such a move would then bring the early June reaction lows at 0.7598 and 0.7599 within striking distance. Recapturing ground above 0.7771/75 is required to question the bearish outlook, opening the week's high at 0.7798.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        It is with disappointment to report the closure of this Technical Analysis column in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 25, 2015 02:40 ET (06:40 GMT)

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