(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.32 versus 94.06 early Monday) after stronger-than-expected 5.1% rise in U.S. May existing home sales for strongest pace of increase in nearly six years (versus forecast +4.2%). USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 10.7 bps to 2.374% Monday); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 8.74% to 12.74; S&P 500 closed up 0.61% at 2,122.85 overnight) on the strong U.S. housing data and signs of progress in Greece's bailout negotiations. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 0135 GMT Markit Japan June flash manufacturing PMI; 0145 GMT HSBC China June flash manufacturing PMI (forecast 49.4); 1230 GMT U.S. May durable goods orders (forecast -1.0%); 1300 GMT U.S. April monthly house price index; 1345 GMT Markit U.S. June flash manufacturing PMI (forecast 54.0); 1400 GMT U.S. May new home sales (forecast +1.0%); 1400 GMT U.S. June Richmond Fed business activity survey (forecast 4). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 123.42 (Monday's high); breach would target 123.61 (Thursday's high), then 124.46 (Wednesday's high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high). Support at 122.99 (hourly chart), then at 122.56-122.46 band (Monday's low-June 10 low); breach would expose downside to 121.44 (May 25 low), then 121.31 (55-day moving average), 120.61 (May 22 low), and 120.58 (100-day moving average).
EUR/USD--to consolidate. Supported by comments from European policy makers on Monday suggesting Greece and its international lenders are closer to a deal; stronger-than-expected eurozone June flash consumer confidence indicator of -5.6 (versus forecast -5.8); euro demand on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But EUR/USD upside limited by bullish dollar sentiment; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0730 GMT Markit Germany June flash manufacturing PMI (forecast 51.3); 0800 GMT Markit eurozone June flash manufacturing PMI (forecast 52.2). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.1312 (Monday's low), then at 1.1292 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1205 (June 16 low), then 1.1189 (June 15 low), 1.1151 (June 12 low), 1.1082 (June 8 low), 1.1061 (confluence of 55-day & 100-day moving averages), 1.1049 (June 5 low) and 1.0915 (June 2 low). Resistance at 1.1410 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.1440-1.1450 band (Thursday's high-May 18 high), then 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by bullish dollar sentiment; contagion from weak Kiwi; soft iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron slipped $0.1o Monday to $60.60/ton). But AUD/USD losses tempered by positive risk sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Aussie vulnerable to 0145 GMT HSBC China June flash manufacturing PMI (forecast 49.4). Other data focus: 0000 GMT Australia April Conference Board leading index; 0130 GMT Australia 1Q residential property price indexes. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.7717-0.7708 band (Monday's low-Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7642-0.7634 band (Wednesday's low-June 10 low), then 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.7796 (Monday's high), then at 0.7809 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7848 (Thursday's high), then 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-five-year low 0.6854 this morning. Undermined by bullish dollar sentiment; dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy stance; soft dairy prices; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by positive risk sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6854 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low). Resistance at 0.6929-0.6938 band (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.6959 (10-day exponential moving average), then 0.6994 (Thursday's high), 0.7010 (Wednesday's high), 0.7026 (June 12 high), 0.7198 (June 11 high) and 0.7230 (June 10 high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by bullish dollar sentiment; sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD losses tempered by positive risk sentiment. Data focus: 1000 GMT U.K. June CBI monthly industrial trends survey. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Monday, stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.5803 (Monday's low, matching Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5623 (Wednesday's low), then 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5879 (hourly chart), then at 1.5909 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.5928 (Thursday's seven-month high), then 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high), 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high) and 1.6184 (Oct. 21 reaction high, near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of decline from July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to April 13 low of 1.4563).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by bullish dollar sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance 0.9227 (Monday's high), then at 0.9251 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9327-0.9337 band (Wednesday's high-June 16 high), then 0.9383-0.9391 band (June 15 high-June 12 high), 0.9406 (June 11 high, near 55-day moving average), 0.9429 (June 8 high), 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9531 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.9152-0.9145 band (Monday's low-Thursday's low); breach would target 0.9108 (May 15 low), then 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade in higher range. Supported by bullish dollar sentiment. But USD/CAD gains tempered by positive risk sentiment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2328-1.2333 (Monday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2345 (June 16 high), then 1.2359 (June 15 high), 1.2441 (June 9 high), 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high). Support at 1.2215-1.2210 (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2124 (Thursday's low), then 1.1997 (May 18 low) and 1.1956 (200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to range-trade. Supported by signs of progress in Greece's bailout negotiations; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY upside limited by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bearish; but five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 140.63-140.67 (Monday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), then 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline). Support at 139.66 (hourly chart), then at 139.28 (Monday's low); breach would target 138.94 (Friday's low), then 138.74 (Wednesday's low), 138.27 (June 16 low), 138.11 (June 15 low), 138.00 (June 12 low), 137.29 (200-day moving average), 136.11 (June 2 low) and 135.14 (June 1 low).
EUR/GBP--to trade with risks skewed higher. Supported by hopes that Greece and its international lenders would reach a deal. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7210-0.7213 (Monday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7250 (June 16 high), then 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high). Support at 0.7128-0.7118 band (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would target 0.7090 (May 28 low), then 0.7051 (May 27 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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June 22, 2015 19:28 ET (23:28 GMT)
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June 22, 2015 19:28 ET (23:28 GMT)
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June 22, 2015 19:28 ET (23:28 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD Up on Strong Housing: Yen Soft Amid Positive Risk -- ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK"
Thanks for give comment.