(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--closed.
USD/TWD--consolidation lower. USD/TWD has dropped out of its daily Bollinger uptrend channel as of its Friday close, signalling that upward momentum has been exhausted. This could trigger a capitulation of long-USD positions that might weigh the pair down toward 30.770 where the daily Bollinger downtrend channel begins. The greenback has been trading with a heavy tone since the U.S. Federal Reserve last week hinted that it is no rush to raise interest rates. Position trimming of short EUR/USD positions ahead of today's emergency meeting between Greece and its eurozone creditors has also depressed the U.S. dollar index. There is a possibility that a compromise will be reached that would unlock financial bailout funds for Greece to meet its month-end debt repayments due to the IMF. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier and 20-day Bollinger mid support line), then at 30.790 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone), before 30.770 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.120 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), then at 31.240 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.480 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--consolidation. USD/KRW is likely to hover near the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone that spans 1,102-1,087. The pair on Friday showed resilience despite an early drop, ending just outside the Bollinger downtrend channel thus averting the bearish technical signal. But if USD/KRW closes Monday below 1,102, it would be inside the downtrend channel and inside the Ichimoku Cloud support zone and thus likely to consolidate in a lower range. The catalyst for the pair's next move could be the upcoming meeting between Greece and its creditors in Brussels later today. If the latest proposal to rein in government spending is approved by the eurozone group, the euro will likely rally and thus send the safe haven greenback lower across the board. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,103 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1,102 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier and 20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1,118 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--downtrend. A couple of bearish technical signs on the daily chart suggest that the Singapore dollar will add to recent gains versus the U.S. unit. USD/SGD has entered the daily Bollinger downtrend channel and is also below the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone. The pair could slide to the 1.3200 round-figure trading barrier, guided by the downtrend channel. The greenback has been under pressure since the U.S. Federal Reserve last week hinted that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. In addition, the possibility of a last-minute deal between Greece and its creditors - to unlock bailout funds - at an emergency meeting later today has been propping up the euro, thus weighing on the U.S. dollar index and thereby most USD/Asia currency pairs. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3317 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1.3300 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3250 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is 1.3363 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), then at 1.3385 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--consolidation lower. USD/MYR may slip a tad as the euro inches higher on hopes for a Greece financing deal later today, but the daily chart support at 3.7120 - the 20-day Bollinger mid line - has been firm over the last two sessions and could continue to keep the pair propped up. The euro has recently been rising - thereby depressing the U.S. dollar index - on hopes that Greece can clinch a last-minute deal with its creditors for the release of bailout funds with its latest revised budget proposal. But if negotiations at the emergency meeting later today fall through again, the euro could collapse as punters bet on Greece missing debt repayments due end-June - which could precipitate into a debt default and a possible exit from the eurozone. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7120 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 3.7000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.6800 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7500 (psychological resistance), then at 3.7550 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.7800 (psychological resistance).
USD/THB--consolidation. USD/THB continues to be caught in a narrow range of 33.62-33.76 demarcated by the respective entrances to the daily Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. The pair has slipped gradually over the last week as the U.S. Federal Reserve snuffed out hawkish views on interest rates, but has consistently bounced off the entrance to the Bollinger downtrend channel, suggesting that buying on dips is still prevalent. Traders are likely to take a wait-and-see approach on the U.S. dollar as Greece seeks a last-minute deal with its creditors at an emergency meeting later today. If the eurozone ministers maintain their hard line stance and refuse to release additional bailout funds to Greece, debt repayments due end-June will be missed, which could lead to a default and subsequent Greece exit from the eurozone. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.62 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 33.55 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 33.50 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is at 33.69 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 33.76 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 33.83 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/PHP--uptrend. USD/PHP has surprisingly reinstated a bullish chart bias despite the broadly softer U.S. dollar in Asia. USD/PHP is inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel that now supports at 45.07 and could lead to 45.30 in the near-term. The peso may have declined against the dollar on bets that the central bank might ease interest rates at its Thursday policy meeting, despite comments from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas that a rate cut is not needed. A reduction in lending rates ought to bolster economic growth, but at the same time diminishes the yield for those holding peso-denominated assets. But external event risk could cause unexpected volatility in USD/PHP before Thursday's central bank decision. A possible deal between Greece and its eurozone creditors at an emergency meeting scheduled later today could trigger a reaction in USD/PHP. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 45.07 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 44.80 (psychological support). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.20 (psychological resistance), then at 45.30 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 45.50 (psychological resistance).
USD/IDR--consolidation, possible uptrend. USD/IDR is likely to range within a span of 13,280-13,340 as technical signals are weak, and traders may decide sit on the sidelines before the Greece-Eurozone meeting later today. The pair is still on a bullish trendline projected from mid-April, but is no longer in the Bollinger uptrend channel and thus appears to be lacking in momentum. If Greece fails to get its latest budget restructuring proposal approved by the Eurogroup ministers, the euro may fall sharply and thus boost the U.S. dollar all around. Failure to reach a deal at the meeting later today would make it highly likely that Greece will miss its IMF debt repayment deadline due end-June, which could lead to an exit from the eurozone. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,310 (April trendline support), then at 13,280 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 13,220 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,340 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,400 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,500 (psychological resistance).
USD/INR--consolidation lower. USD/INR may consolidate lower within the daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone as the Bollinger downtrend channel has now been triggered. The rupee could hence appreciate against the dollar but its gains may be limited unless USD/INR manages to break through the 63.15 floor of the Ichimoku Cloud support zone. A confirmed break could see USD/INR swiftly fall past the round-figure trading barrier of 63.00 and to the weekly Cloud support at around 62.25. The U.S. dollar has been declining since the U.S. Federal Reserve snuffed out hawkish views on interest rates last week. Also weighing on USD/INR has been the 6-day rally of the main India stock exchange index, which could attract more foreign investment inflows that would further boost the rupee's value. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.43 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone), before 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.56 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone), then at 63.63 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 63.83 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 21, 2015 21:04 ET (01:04 GMT)
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 21, 2015 21:04 ET (01:04 GMT)
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