USD Remains Vulnerable

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: The wave structure of the recovery from Friday's low at 1.1292 suggests a full retracement to last week's one-month high at 1.1440 is on the cards. A break above 1.1405 would open the 1.1440 high, and the broader-term bull wave from the May 27 reaction low at 1.0819 is sub-dividing, offering further upside scope to 1.15 and beyond. Support at 1.1340 and 1.1290 on last week's Market Profile chart indicate limited scope for downside risk.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Resistance at 123.25 is capping scope for corrective upside risk, leaving the recent lows at 122.46 and 122.56 vulnerable. USD bears will remain in overall control while 123.25 caps, and a concerted wave of renewed bear pressure on 122.46/122.56 would be enough to force a break lower towards 121.90 and 121.75. Loss of 122.46 would also generate a minimum downside requirement target at 121.10, although the wave structure of the broader bear wave from the June 5 peak at 125.86 suggests that 121.10 objective won't be met. Resistance at 123.45 would have to be reclaimed in order to question the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Last week's seven-month high at 1.5930 is braced for renewed pressure, and further gains are on the cards. The 1.60 level is now within striking distance, and the broader bull wave from the April base at 1.4568 now targets 1.6050, where the 260-day falling moving average lies. There is also a wave equality target that lies at 1.6468. Solid support lies at 1.5730/50, which has protection at 1.5820.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Pressure is building on last week's low five-week low at 0.9151, leaving the May lows at 0.9072/78 vulnerable. Thursday's bull hammer candle has been negated, and a push below 0.9151 would expose a minimum downside requirement target at 0.9119 - the last line of defence protecting the 0.9072/78 lows. Resistance at 0.9190 and 0.9220 would have to be broken just to provide respite, but only above 0.9250 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: The rally from Friday's three-week low at low at 0.7125 will struggle while resistance at 0.7204 and 0.7219 cap the upside. Renewed bear pressure would force a break below 0.7125, exposing support at 0.7115 and 0.7099 which are the last lines of defence protecting the May 27 reaction low at 0.7057. It would take a break above 0.7219 to question the bearish outlook.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The impasse between the June peaks at 141.06/141.02 and the June 12 reaction low at 138.00 is set to continue. Loss of internal support at 138.94 would bolster Thursday's 140.67 high, while threatening to challenge the 138.00 low. The support line of a bull flag continuation pattern lies at 137.59. Recapturing ground above 140.67 would give EUR bulls firmer control, opening the 141.02/141.06 peaks and beyond.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Near-term bulls have again come to the fore, to defend the 1.04 level during Monday's Asian session. However, a recovery above 1.0477 is required to create additional upside scope towards 1.05, although the two-week falling resistance line at 1.0528 indicates limited upside scope. The 1.0404 lows would be re-exposed on a break below 1.0425, threatening 1.0350.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: The rally from Friday's low at 0.7737 has the capacity to test Thursday's four-week high at 0.7849, although a push through 0.7849 is not on the cards just yet. Resistance at 0.7804 and 0.7831 is required to re-open the 0.7849 high, and only a concerted wave of AUD bull pressure would manage to forge a way higher towards 0.7869 and 0.7892. The support cluster between 0.7722 and 0.7748 inhibits scope to the downside, while a break below 0.7685 would spark a new wave of weakness down to 0.7643.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 22, 2015 02:33 ET (06:33 GMT)