(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. USD/CNY is currently caught in a narrow consolidation range spanning 6.2044-6.2085 - supported by the base of the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone which is also the 20-day Bollinger mid line. If the pair closes above the 6.2085 barrier which is the entrance of the Bollinger uptrend channel, the upside potential for the U.S. dollar will increase, suggesting a relatively weaker yuan in the near term. The Chinese stock market rebounded a second straight day on Wednesday and could rise higher now that the Shanghai Composite Index has nullified a bearish chart signal which appeared Monday. A rise in stocks could boost speculative demand for the yuan. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2044 (20-day Bollinger mid support and base of daily Ichimoku Cloud), before 6.2006 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 6.2085 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2124 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2238 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone).
USD/TWD--consolidation. USD/TWD has been consolidating higher over the last few days and could trigger a mild bullish chart signal if it ends Thursday above 31.105 and thus out of the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone. But the overnight slippage of the U.S. dollar index - as the euro held on to subtle gains - could delay a USD/TWD rally. On Wednesday, Taiwan's industrial output data for May disappointed, as it fell for the first time in more than a year. The index dropped 3.2% on-year, well below the median estimate for a 0.2% rise, due to waning demand for electronics from China and Europe. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 30.900 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 30.740 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone and base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.070 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 31.105 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 31.230 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--possible uptrend. USD/KRW could rally a third day and attempt to enter the Bollinger uptrend channel at 1,117 as global equities retreated overnight - partly due to concerns that Greece is still not out of the woods. South Korea's main stock market index is down 0.4% at its opening. Greece's failure to win approval from all its creditors - due to disagreements regarding pension reforms - could weigh on investor sentiment and thus depress emerging market assets broadly. If USD/KRW closes Thursday above 1,117 it might be headed for higher ground in the near term, implying a weaker won versus the U.S. dollar. South Korea's consumer inflation expectation index for June published earlier showed no change from its previous reading of 2.5%. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,105 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 1,102 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,111 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 1,117 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/SGD--consolidation. USD/SGD is likely to range between 1.3376-1.3509 - a range demarcated by the respective entrances of the daily Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. A daily close outside of this range may be needed to strengthen directional trading cues in USD/SGD. The pair is currently hovering near the 20-day Bollinger mid line of 1.3443 - which denotes a neutral technical stance. Overnight, the U.S. dollar index higher slipped slightly as the euro held on to gains ahead of another round of emergency talks between Greece and its creditors Thursday. Hopes have dimmed for a quick resolution after the Greek prime minister said the IMF rejected the proposal due to contention with pension plan reforms. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3387 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 1.3318 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone). Immediate resistance is at 1.3443 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 1.3450 (psychological resistance), before 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--possible uptrend. USD/MYR is inching higher into the daily Bollinger uptrend channel as the dollar rises for a third straight day. If USD/MYR ends the day above 3.7590 it would be inside the uptrend channel - which could encourage more bullish bets on the dollar in the near term. The safe haven U.S. dollar is up despite a slight drop in U.S. Treasury yields overnight. Weighing on emerging market assets such as the Malaysia ringgit is the 1.0% fall of U.S. stocks on Wednesday, coupled with a resurgence of uncertainty over the Greek-eurozone bailout talks. Disagreements over pension plan reforms has delayed a resolution that would free up debt-repayment funds for Greece. A fresh round of negotiations begins Thursday, as the June 30 deadline for meeting loan obligations to the IMF looms. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7590 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.7500 (psychological support), before 3.7340 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7800 (psychological resistance), then at 3.7890 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.8000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/THB--possible uptrend. USD/THB has tentatively entered the daily Bollinger uptrend channel - which would be confirmed on a Thursday close above 33.76 - as safe haven assets received a boost from fresh uncertainty surrounding Greece bailout talks. If USD/THB closes above 33.76 it could be on its way to the 34.00 round-figure trading barrier. Overnight, stocks retreated and U.S. government bonds rallied after it was revealed that Greece's proposed budget reforms were rejected by the IMF due to disagreements regarding pension plans. A fresh round of talks begins Thursday, sustaining hopes that a deal can be struck before the June 30 debt repayment deadline to the IMF. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.76 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.69 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 33.62 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 33.84 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 34.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--uptrend. USD/PHP has triggered a bullish chart signal with its Wednesday closing inside the Bollinger uptrend channel that now supports the pair at 45.13. The chart suggests that the peso could weaken versus the U.S. dollar in the near term, possibly to 45.35 in the next few days. A hiccup in Greece debt negotiation talks may be driving the safe haven U.S. dollar higher in Asia, but a more pertinent factor affecting USD/PHP today would be the central bank interest rate decision due at 0800 GMT. The central bank has said that a rate cut is not needed for now, but if there is a surprise change in policy, USD/PHP is likely to react significantly and thereby trigger fresh technical signals. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 45.13 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 44.92 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.20 (psychological resistance), before 45.35 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--consolidation. Indonesia's rupiah has completely given up the gains chalked up versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday when speculative demand for the currency was stoked by a large government bond auction. The USD/IDR pair rebounded Wednesday and is now above the 20-day Bollinger mid line where it may consolidate until a fresh catalyst appears. That catalyst could be the return of uncertainty over Greece debt negotiations. The latest Greek budget restructuring proposal has been rejected, delaying the release of much-needed financial bailout funds. A new round of discussions starting Thursday is keeping alive hopes that Greece will be able to clinch a deal that would allow it to meet debt repayments to the IMF due June 30. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,290 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 13,240 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,190 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,340 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,390 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,400 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
USD/INR--consolidation higher. A mild bullish technical signal in USD/INR would be confirmed if the pair ends Thursday above 63.59. This would place the pair above the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone and also out of the Bollinger downtrend channel - which might prompt short-covering of bearish-USD positions. The safe haven U.S. dollar is creeping up in Asia Thursday on a return of uncertainty surrounding Greek debt negotiation talks. Creditors have rejected Greece's latest budget reform proposal, and will kick off a fresh round of talks later today to iron out disagreements mainly centered on pension plans. As the June 30 deadline for debt repayments to the IMF looms closer, investors might get more jittery and dump riskier emerging market assets due to returning fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.36 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone), before 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.59 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud and top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.80 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 64.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 20:56 ET (00:56 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.