(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by flows to haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 9.5% to 13.26, S&P 500 closed 0.74% lower at 2,108.58 overnight) on renewed worries over Greece's debt crisis after a list of economic measures Greece said it was willing to undertake in exchange for financial aid was rejected. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.7 bps to 2.372% Wednesday); Japan exporter sales. But USD sentiment soothed as U.S. 1Q GDP was revised to -0.2% from previous estimate of -0.7%. USD/JPY losses also tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended June 20 (forecast 273,000); 1230 GMT U.S. May personal income (forecast +0.5%) & spending (forecast +0.7%), PCE core price index (forecast +0.1%); 1345 GMT Markit U.S. June flash services PMI (forecast 56.7); 1500 GMT U.S. June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index (forecast -10 versus May's -13). Daily chart mixed as stochastics rising from oversold levels; but MACD bearish, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern completed Wednesday. Support at 123.71 (Wednesday's low), then at 123.35 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 122.56-122.46 band (Monday's low-June 10 low), then 121.44 (May 25 low, near 55-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low, near 100-day moving average). Resistance at 124.38-124.46 band (Wednesday's high-June 17 high); breach would target 124.63 (June 10 high), then 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate. Underpinned by scaling down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fell (Stoxx Europe 600 closed down 0.38% at 397.32) on fading optimism about a bailout deal for Greece as significant divisions remain over measures Greece must implement to receive bailout funds. EUR/USD also supported by unwinding of euro-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion; euro demand on rebounding EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected Germany June Ifo business climate index of 107.4 (versus forecast 108.0). EUR/USD upside also limited by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany July GfK consumer climate index (forecast 10.2). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; although inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 1.1235 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1347 (Tuesday's high), then 1.1410 (Monday's high), 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high). Support at 1.1155 (Wednesday's low), then at 1.1135 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1082 (June 8 low, near 55-day moving average), then 1.1049 (June 5 low, near 100-day moving average) and 1.0915 (June 2 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias. Undermined by Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; Aussie sales on retreating AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD losses tempered by firmer iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rose $1.20 Wednesday to $61.70/ton). Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia May job vacancies. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, but MACD in bullish mode. Support at 0.7680-0.7677 (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7642-0.7634 band (June 17 low-June 10 low), then 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.7771 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7796 (Monday's high), then 0.7809 (Friday's high), 0.7848 (June 18 high), 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias. Supported by Kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains tempered by increased investor risk aversion; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics turned bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.6907 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.6929-0.6938 band (Monday's high-Friday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then 0.6994 (June 18 high), 0.7010 (June 17 high), 0.7026 (June 12 high), 0.7198 (June 11 high) and 0.7230 (June 10 high). Support at 0.6837 (Wednesday's low), then at 0.6813 (Tuesday's near-five-year low); breach would target 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting one-week low 1.5666 Wednesday. Undermined by sterling sales on rebounding EUR/GBP cross; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But sterling sentiment soothed by comment from BOE's Weale that the central bank should be prepared to raise U.K. interest rates as early as August given the upswing in British wages growth. Data focus: 1000 GMT U.K. June CBI monthly distributive trades survey. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 1.5666 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.5623 (June 17 low), then 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5750 (hourly chart), then at 1.5802 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.5831 (Tuesday's high), then 1.5909 (Monday's high), 1.5928 (June 18 high), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high) and 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with buoyant tone. Underpinned by franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; although inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 0.9371 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.9386-0.9391 (Tuesday's high-June 12 high, near 55-day moving average); breach would target 0.9406 (June 11 high), then 0.9429 (June 8 high), 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9531 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.9278 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9207 (Tuesday's low), then 0.9152-0.9145 band (Monday's low-June 18 low), 0.9108 (May 15 low), 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-week high 1.2422 Wednesday. Underpinned by softer oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 74 cents at $60.27/bbl Wednesday); loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada April payroll employment, earnings & hours. Daily chart positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday; stochastics rising from oversold levels; MACD histogram bars turning positive; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Resistance at 1.2422 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2441 (June 9 high), then 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high). Support at 1.2330 (hourly chart), then at 1.2273 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2215-1.2210 (Monday's low-Friday's low), then 1.2124 (June 18 low), 1.1997 (May 18 low) and 1.1970 (200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to range-trade. Supported by steady EUR/USD undertone; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY upside limited by Japan exporter sales. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; although inside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday. Resistance at 139.18 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 140.01 (Tuesday's high), then 140.63-140.67 (Monday's high-June 18 high), 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline). Support at 138.27 (Wednesday's low), then at 138.21-138.11 band (Tuesday's low-June 15 low); breach would target 138.00 (June 12 low), then 137.27 (200-day moving average), 136.11 (June 2 low) and 135.14 (June 1 low).
EUR/GBP--to trade in higher range. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.7144 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.7179 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7210-0.7213 (Monday's high-June 17 high), then 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high). Support at 0.7077 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7051 (May 27 low), then 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 19:16 ET (23:16 GMT)
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June 24, 2015 19:16 ET (23:16 GMT)
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