Daily Economic Outlook: 27th July, 2015


27 July 2015, 07:34
The German IFO survey will provide further indications of economic activity in the euro area at the start of Q3. Coming after the expected pickup in Q2, recent survey evidence has been mixed. Last week's 'flash' euro area PMI reports suggest some easing of growth momentum at the start of Q3 and may point to some downside risks to the IFO survey.

However, some of the weakness was probably due to a negative impact from the Greek crisis and the overall level remained close to a 4-year high. On the other hand, the German ZEW survey posted a very strong increase for the current situation component and only a small decline in the expectations index.

Overall, the broad picture of strengthening activity compared with last year still remains intact and Lloyds Banka  notes a rise in the headline IFO index to 107.6 from 107.4, firmer than the market consensus of a slight dip to 107.2.

According to Lloyds Bank, "US durable goods orders for June are expected to post a rebound of 3.0% (consensus: 3.5%), following the 2.2% fall in the previous month. Much of the rebound is due to the volatile transport sector and reflects fluctuations in aircraft orders. Core sales, which tend to be more stable will be closely watched for further evidence on the impact of the stronger dollar on manufacturing activity. Shipments data, released in parallel, are used to calculate GDP, will be the final piece of information ahead of this week's advance Q2 GDP estimate."

Source : FX-Primus

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