Eur Recovering Lost Grounds

   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:

        Intraday EUR/USD: The upward breach of 1.1095 during Thursday's Asian session puts EUR bulls in control of the near-term, signalling further recovery is on the cards. The move higher consigns Tuesday's five-week low at 1.0916 to bear failure status, opening 1.1136 and 1.1172, while generating new upside risk to the June 29 lower high at 1.1279. Key intra-day support lies at 1.1035, which has protection at 1.1063.

        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.

        Intraday USD/JPY: Recovers from Wednesday's seven-week low at 120.41, and resistance at 121.89 is targeted. It was Wednesday's plunge beneath 121.70 that produced a bearish marabuzo candle, and USD bulls are edging above the midpoint of that candle at 121.48 during Thursday's Asian session, creating the additional upside scope. Single print resistance at 121.89 and 122.37 on Wednesday's Market Profile chart are the next objectives. Intra-day support at 120.92 and 120.68 guard the 120.41 low.

        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.

        Intraday GBP/USD: Corrects higher from Wednesday's one-month low at 1.5332, which targets the 1.5425/40 area. The 1.5332 low marks a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, and lands on the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the broader 1.5172 to 1.5930 decline, and the correction higher would only gather legs on a break above 1.5440, opening 1.5500 and 1.5525. Failure to break above 1.5440 would bring the 1.5332 low back into focus, threatening 1.5275 and a full retracement to the June 1 reaction low at 1.5172.

        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.

        Intraday USD/CHF: A trading range is developing between 0.9399 and Tuesday's bull trap high at 0.9516. An upside resolution is expected further down the line, because Tuesday's six-week high at 0.9516 cemented the bear failure at the June 18 low at 0.9151, and USD bulls have the May 27 high at 0.9543 as their next target. Thereafter, there is also a broader upside equality target at 0.9626 to meet. Failure to hold onto the 0.9399 low would signal new downside risk to 0.9282.

        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.

        Intraday EUR/GBP: Wednesday's push and session close above 0.7166 generates a minimum upside requirement target at 0.7238. This week's strong bounce from 0.7060 protects last week's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990, and the 0.7238 objective would be opened on a break above Tuesday's 0.7223 high. A concerted wave of EUR bull pressure would then allow scope for gains to 0.7252 and 0.7276. The former range high at 0.7166 reverses polarity to become support, guarding 0.7124.

        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.

        Intraday EUR/JPY: Rejects a new six-week low at 133.31 on Wednesday, and strength during Thursday's Asian session targets a lower high at 135.41. The 133.31 bear trap low will become a confirmed bear failure if EUR bulls can force a break above 135.41, which would then create additional upside scope to the week's high at 136.06. The 133.31 low has protection at 134.20 and 133.65.

        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.

        Intraday EUR/CHF: Wednesday's strength brings the focus onto the July 2 high at 1.0524, and a push higher is the main threat. Wednesday's push and session close above 1.0456 suggests the short-term bull wave from the June 29 reaction low at 1.0300 is ready to extend above 1.0524, opening a five-week falling resistance line at 1.0530 and a wave equality target at 1.0582. Weakness will attract support while above 1.0410.

        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.

        Intraday AUD/USD: The upward breach of 0.7477 during Thursday's Asian session signals upside scope to 0.7533. However, the rally from Wednesday's six-year low at 0.7372 is corrective, and a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target lies at 0.7521 - beneath the week's high at 0.7533. Broader-term AUD bears remain in control, because the bear wave from the June 18 lower high at 0.7849 is sub-dividing, and downside objectives at 0.7342 and 0.7325 are on course to be met. It would take a recovery above 0.7533 to offer respite, opening strong resistance at 0.7600.

        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.

        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.

        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"

        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com

        Dow Jones will no longer be offering in-house Technical Analysis to subscribers, meaning this column will be discontinued in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.

        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.

        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.

        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.

        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 09, 2015 02:30 ET (06:30 GMT)

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