LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
Intraday EUR/USD: The June 29 low at 1.0950 has come under scrutiny during Monday's Asian session, and a push lower is the main threat. That's because the bear wave from last week's high at 1.0279 confirmed a truncated bull failure at 1.1119 on Friday, and the 1.0950 low will remain vulnerable while a downside gap at 1.1108 exists on the 60-minute chart. Further weakness to the 1.0900/10 area would be signalled on a break below 1.0950, dragging the May 27 low at 1.0819 into view. It would require a push through 1.1119 to give EUR bulls some control, opening 1.1135, then 1.1191.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Set a near six-week low at 121.70 during Monday's Asian session, enhancing the threat of more weakness to the 121 area this week. The downward breach of 121.93 now leaves support at 121.35 exposed, which forms the upper boundary of a major support cluster above 121.02. It would take a push into new session highs above 122.71 to put USD bulls back in control, opening 122.93 and 123.09.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Met a key downside objective near Monday's Asian session low at 1.5522, and new downside scope has been created. The powerful bear wave from the June 18 peak at 1.5930 is sub-dividing, and renewed pressure on 1.5522 would threaten to expose 1.5485 and a minimum downside requirement target at 1.5423. Deeper backup support lies at 1.5385. Projected resistance at 1.5598 would have to be broken in order to question the bearish outlook, opening the intra-wave lower high at 1.5642.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/CHF: The failure to meet a key upside objective at 0.9512 last week puts USD bears in a strong position. Furthermore, Monday's USD strength during the Asian session has been capped, putting pressure on support at 0.9399. Loss of 0.9399 would bolster last Thursday's five-week high at 0.9504, and challenging support at 0.9375 is the main objective for near-term USD bears. That 0.9375 support area is important on last week's Market Profile chart, so it would require a concerted wave of bear pressure to force a break lower towards 0.9305. Recapturing ground above 0.9460 and 0.9480 is required to suggest a return to the 0.9504 high is on the cards.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/GBP: Continues to consolidate between 0.7136 and last week's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990. The downward breach of 0.7065 failed to attract follow-through, leaving the lower high at 0.7136 vulnerable. A break above 0.7136 would consign the session low at 0.7061 to bear failure status, offering additional upside scope back to last week's 0.7166 high. Only a sustained break below 0.7035 would suggest a return to the 0.6990 low is on the cards.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Bounces strongly from Monday's Asian session low at 133.60, to challenge resistance at 135.90. Monday's marginal low at 133.60 is threatening to become a significant bear trap low, and recapturing ground above 135.90 would clear the path for further gains to 136.55. Monday's fledgling Market Profile chart indicates intra-day support at 134.85 and 134.30 is guarding the 133.60 low.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Recovers from Monday's Asian session low of 1.0356, to put pressure on resistance at 1.0435. Strong support at 1.0356 keeps last week's low at 1.0300 low out of trouble, and a break above 1.0435 would open key resistance at 1.0460/65 on last week's Market Profile chart. Last week's high at 1.0524 would then become vulnerable on a break above 1.0465. It would take a reversal below 1.0356 to switch the focus onto the 1.0300 reaction low.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Set a new six-year low at 0.7452 during Monday's Asian session, and further weakness to 0.7306 has been signalled. It was Friday's downward break below 0.7587 that cemented the two lower highs at 0.7739 and 0.7849, producing two key downside objectives at 0.7325 and 0.7306. Last week's Market Profile chart highlights resistance at 0.7521 and 0.7553, although only above 0.7589 would lift the tone.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
This Technical Analysis column will be discontinued in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2015 02:38 ET (06:38 GMT)
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