EUR to Test The Upside; JPY Weak

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Holds onto the important 1.0950 support area, to stabilize the bear wave from the June 18 reaction high at 1.1440. A new range between 1.0950 and 1.1279 is being established, and the successful defence of 1.0950 on Monday suggests the upper half of the range is now in line for a test. Monday's high at 1.1095 guards a lower high at 1.1122, and a sustained break above 1.1122 would be the signal for new upside scope towards 1.1279. The 1.0997/1.1001 support area would have to be broken in order to re-expose the 1.0950 floor.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The recovery from a near six-week low of 121.70 on Monday suggests the corrective bear wave from 125.86 has run its course. Monday's low at 121.70 bears the hallmark of a significant bear trap and bear failure low, and a break above Monday's high at 122.93 would enhance this, opening 123.09 and 123.29. However, USD bulls would have to force a break above the intra-wave lower high at 123.75 to complete the bear failure. Support at 122.54 and 121.99 guard the 121.70 low.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Meeting a key downside objective near Monday's low at 1.5522 has prompted a recovery, targeting Friday's high at 1.5642. The strong rejection of the three-week low at 1.5522 suggests the bear wave from the June 18 peak at 1.5930 is undergoing consolidation, which could stretch up to the 1.5725 area. Weakness will attract support while above 1.5560.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Range.
        Intraday USD/CHF: The failure to meet a key upside objective at 0.9512 keeps the pressure on the July 3 low at 0.9399. Monday's USD strength was capped at 0.9471, and renewed pressure on 0.9399 should force a break lower to 0.9375, while bolstering last Thursday's five-week high at 0.9504. That 0.9375 support area is important on last week's Market Profile chart, so it would require a concerted wave of bear pressure to force a break lower towards 0.9305. Recapturing ground above 0.9471/80 is required to suggest a return to the 0.9504 high is on the cards.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Monday's low at 0.7055 is braced for renewed pressure, and a push lower to 0.7035 is on the cards. However, last week's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990 is not in danger just yet, while three downside objectives at 0.7035 are expected to attract some support. Respite would be achieved on a break above 0.7095, and only above 0.7122 would open Friday's high at 0.7136.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: Holds onto most of Monday's strong bounce from 133.60, and further EUR gains are in the offing. Consolidation beneath Monday's high at 136.06 suggests the 133.60 low is likely to become a significant bear trap, and the 136.06 high will remain vulnerable while support at 134.30 holds. Above 136.06 would open 136.55, threatening 136.90 and 137.42.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: Holds above the 1.04 level, while defending Monday's low at 1.0356. Strong support at 1.0356 keeps last week's low at 1.0300 low out of trouble, and Monday's 1.0456 high is part of key resistance up to 1.0460 on last week's Market Profile chart. Last week's high at 1.0524 would then become vulnerable on a break above 1.0460. Support at 1.0385 defends the 1.0356 low.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Monday's six-year low at 0.7452 remains under pressure, and intra-day support at 0.7465 is all that blocks the path to more weakness. Monday's rally peaked at 0.7533, and it was last Friday's downward break below 0.7587 that cemented the two lower highs at 0.7739 and 0.7849, producing two key downside objectives at 0.7325 and 0.7306. Last week's Market Profile chart highlights resistance at 0.7553, and only above 0.7589 would lift the tone.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        This Technical Analysis column will be discontinued in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 07, 2015 02:12 ET (06:12 GMT)

#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#TestUpside
#JPY_Weak