By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Intraday EUR/USD: The setback from Monday's 1.1279 high has a minimum downside objective to meet at 1.1100. Meeting that 1.1100 objective would require a fresh wave of EUR bear pressure, which would also validate the decline from the 1.1279 high. Deeper weakness to 1.1045/50, then 1.1008 should then be allowed for. The 1.1191/1.1203 resistance area would have to be broken in order to give near-term EUR bulls a lift, opening the 1.1245 lower high.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/JPY: The downtrend from 125.86 to Tuesday's five-week low at 121.93 is struggling to gather momentum. Monday's downward breach of 122.46 produced two key objectives at 121.02 and 120.46, and the bear threat will remain valid while resistance at 123.25 caps the upside. Breaking above Tuesday's high at 122.72 would strengthen the 121.02 low somewhat, opening 123.25.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday GBP/USD: The key 1.5635/50 support area is likely to come under fresh pressure during Wednesday's session. This week's successful defence of the 1.58 resistance area is likely to confirm Monday's high at 1.5787 as an orthodox lower high, and renewed pressure on last week's low at 1.5669 would expose the 1.5635/50 area, while threatening a deeper push lower towards 1.5540. That 1.5540 support area is where the 50% Fibonacci level of the broader 1.5172 to 1.5930 rally coincides with the 200-day rising moving average. Respite would be achieved on a break above 1.5730, although upside scope is hampered.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Tuesday's strength took a large chunk out of Monday's bearish outside day. An impasse is developing within Monday's 0.9435 to 0.9243 range, and internal resistance at 0.9385 is under scrutiny. Monday's Market Profile chart suggests the three-week high at 0.9435 would be opened on a break above 0.9385. Internal support at 0.9295 has the responsibility for protecting the 0.9243 low.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/GBP: Consolidates the strong bounce from Monday's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990. The setback from Monday's four-day high at 0.7166 is struggling to meet a minimum downside requirement target at 0.7042, and the 0.6990 low is preventing a broader downside requirement target at 0.6968 from being met, enhancing the potential for a major turnaround. Failure to meet the 0.7042 objective, combined with a break above the lower high at 0.7128 would bring the 0.7168 high back into the immediate picture.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: The setback from Monday's 138.10 high has produced a minimum downside requirement target at 135.33. However, to get to that target, a break below support at 135.88 is required, which would then create deeper risk to the 134.80. That said, Monday's five-week low at 133.80 was decisively rejected, and the setback from 138.10 is considered corrective. Recapturing ground above 137.52 is required to re-open the 138.10 high.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Euro bulls are testing the water above the 1.04 level, following Monday's recovery from 1.0300. However, a push through strong resistance at 1.0452 is required to strengthen the 1.0300 low, while opening additional upside scope to 1.0490. Weakness will attract support while above 1.0330, protecting the 1.0300 low.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the recovery from Monday's marginal ten-week low at 0.7587, to put pressure on resistance at 0.7740. The failure to attract follow-through weakness on Monday's downward breach of 0.7598/99 should concern AUD bears, and a push above 0.7740 would make the June 18 bull failure lower high at 0.7849 more accessible, opening 0.7771 and 0.7798. Intra-day support at 0.7655 and 0.7622 guard the 0.7587 low.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
This Technical Analysis column will be discontinued in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2015 02:23 ET (06:23 GMT)
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