(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by flows to haven yen and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion as projection of Greece's referendum outcome indicated most Greeks voted "no" to creditors' demands, heightening fears of an eventual Greek exit from the eurozone. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields; Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 0500 GMT Japan May preliminary indexes of business conditions; 1345 GMT Markit final U.S. June services PMI; 1400 GMT U.S. June Conference Board employment trends index; 1400 GMT U.S. June ISM non-manufacturing PMI (forecast 56.3). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD in bearish mode; stochastics turning bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 121.72 (this morning low); breach would target 121.44 (May 25 low), then 120.98 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low). Resistance at 123.19 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 123.72 (Thursday's high), then 123.99 (June 26 high), 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high) and 124.74 (June 9 high).
EUR/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by fears of an eventual Greek exit from the eurozone as the anti-austerity Greek government looks set for a decisive victory, winning almost 61.5% with more than 90% of the votes counted in Sunday's referendum. EUR/USD also weighed by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program--ECB likely to ramp up its purchases of eurozone government debt if markets react badly to the Greek result. But EUR/USD losses tempered by unwinding of euro-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion; scaling down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fall. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany May industrial orders (forecast -0.5% on-month); 0810 GMT eurozone June retail PMI; 0830 GMT eurozone July Sentix index (forecast 15.0). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.0967 (this morning low); breach would target 1.0950 (June 29 low), then 1.0887 (June 1 low), 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1117-1.1122 (Friday's high-Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1171 (Wednesday's high), then 1.1243 (Tuesday's high), 1.1278 (June 29 high), 1.1347 (June 23 high), 1.1410 (June 22 high) and 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high).
AUD/USD--to trade with bearish bias after hitting six-year low 0.7448 this morning. Undermined by increased risk aversion; weak China equities; soft iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $1.70 Friday to more-than-two-month low $54.10/ton); weaker-than-expected Australia May retail sales; Aussie sales on retreating AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia June TD Securities monthly inflation gauge; 0130 GMT Australia June ANZ job ads. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7448 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low), then the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7648-0.7656 band (Thursday's high-Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7738 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7752 (June 25 high), 0.7771 (June 24 high), 0.7796 (June 22 high), 0.7809 (June 19 high), 0.7848 (June 18 high) and 0.7934 (May 20 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with bearish bias after hitting five-year low 0.6640 this morning. Undermined by increased risk aversion; soft dairy prices; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances. But NZD/USD losses tempered by Kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6640 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6731 (Friday's high), then at 0.6744 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.6810 (Wednesday's high), then 0.6854 (Tuesday's high), 0.6880 (June 29 high), 0.6909 (June 26 high) and 0.6924 (June 25 high).
GBP/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by increased risk aversion; broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 96.39 versus 96.07 early Friday). But sterling sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected U.K. June CIPS / Markit services PMI of 58.5 (versus forecast 57.3). GBP/USD losses also tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.5531 (this morning low); breach would target 1.5485 (June 15 low), then 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5643 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5732 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5774 (Tuesday's high), 1.5787 (June 29 high), 1.5802 (June 24 high), and 1.5831 (June 23 high).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Data focus: 0715 GMT Switzerland June CPI (forecast -0.1% on-month, -1.2% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.9449 (this morning high); breach would expose upside to 0.9506-0.9514 band (Thursday's high-May 28 high), then 0.9529 (200-day moving average), 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high). Support at 0.9392 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9337 (Wednesday's low), then 0.9241 (June 29 low), 0.9207 (June 23 low), 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low) and 0.9108 (May 15 low).
USD/CAD--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone; increased risk aversion. Data focus: 1215 GMT Canada June official international reserves; 1400 GMT Canada June Ivey PMI (forecast 54.0). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Resistance at 1.2609 (this morning high), then at 1.2633 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.2645 (April 13 high), then 1.2667 (April 10 reaction high), 1.2783 (March 31 reaction high) and 1.2833 (March 18 swing high). Support at 1.2534 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2471 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2358 (Tuesday's low), 1.2302 (June 29 low), 1.2273 (June 24 low) and 1.2215-1.2210 (June 22 low-June 19 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by fears of an eventual Greek exit from the eurozone after most Greeks voted "no" to creditors' demands in Sunday's referendum. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 133.67 (this morning low); breach would target 133.54 (100-day moving average), then 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 135.85-136.90 (Friday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 137.39 (Wednesday's high), then 137.74 (Tuesday's high), 138.07 (June 29 high), 138.67 (June 26 high) and 138.87 (June 25 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by fears of an eventual Greek exit from the eurozone after the "no" vote in Sunday's referendum. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 0.7050 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 0.6981 (seven-and-a-half year low hit June 29), then 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7140-0.7146 band (Friday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7168 (June 29 high), then 0.7179 (June 23 high), 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 05, 2015 19:10 ET (23:10 GMT)
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0 Response to "Major FX Bearish Amid Heightened Fears of Grexit -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.