USD Consolidating VS Most Major Currencies This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 121.13 (minor)
        1st resistance - 122.88 (minor)
        2nd support - 120.38 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 123.72 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 122.51) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at Friday's high of 122.88. A breach would expose the upside to the July 2 reaction high of 123.72, and then to the June 26 high of 123.98. An extension of the rise would target the 124.38-124.46 band, marked by the June 24 high and the June 17 high, and then the June 9 high of 124.74; followed by the 125.86-125.91 band, marked by the June 5 high and the June 30, 2002 high. Support may be encountered at the 100-day moving average, now at 121.13. A breach would target Wednesday's low of 120.38, and then the May 18 low of 119.22. An extension of the fall would target the May 14 reaction low of 118.86; and then the 200-day moving average, now at 118.69. The medium-term USD/JPY outlook is mixed as the five-week moving average is positioned above the advancing 15-week moving average, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below 125.86. A rise above 125.86 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the psychological 130.00 line; and then to the Jan. 31, 2002 swing high of 135.15.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.0989 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.1215 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.0915 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1278 (minor)
        EUR/USD (last 1.1122) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at Friday's high of 1.1215. A breach would target the June 29 high of 1.1278, and then the June 22 high of 1.1410. An extension of the rise would target the June 18 reaction high of 1.1440, and then the May 15 reaction high of 1.1468. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.0989. A breach would target Tuesday's reaction low of 1.0915, and then the June 1 low of 1.0887. An extension of the fall would target the May 27 reaction low of 1.0819, and then the April 21 reaction low of 1.0660, followed by the April 13 reaction low of 1.0519. The medium-term EUR/USD outlook is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bullish, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish near overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays above 1.0819. A drop below 1.0819 would turn the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the 12-year low of 1.0457 hit March 16, and then to the psychological 1.0000 line; followed by the Sept. 17, 2002 reaction low of 0.9601.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7368 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7533 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7240 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7648 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7439) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below the July 6 high of 0.7533. The five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but the daily slow stochastic indicator is at oversold levels. Support is at Wednesday's low of 0.7368. A breach would expose the downside to the May 1, 2009 low of 0.7240, and then to the psychological 0.7000 line. But a rise above 0.7533 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the July 3 high of 0.7648, and then the July 1 high of 0.7738. An extension of the rise would target the June 25 high of 0.7752, and then the June 24 high of 0.7771, followed by the June 22 high of 0.7796. The medium-term AUD/USD outlook is negative as the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining. The currency pair may fall to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245 in the weeks ahead.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.6619 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.6771 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.6559 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.6810 (minor)
        NZD/USD (last 0.6728) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays above Tuesday's low of 0.6619. The five-day moving average is below the declining 15-day moving average, but the slow stochastic indicator is bullish at oversold levels. Resistance is at Friday's high of 0.6771. A breach would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the July 1 high of 0.6810, and then the June 29 high of 0.6880. An extension of the rise would target the June 25 reaction high of 0.6924, and then the June 17 high of 0.7010, followed by the June 10 reaction high of 0.7230. But a drop below 0.6619 would turn the near-term outlook negative, targeting the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559. An extension of the fall would target the July 13, 2009 low of 0.6192; and then the June 8, 2009 low of 0.6148. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. A drop below 0.6559 would open the way down to the psychological 0.6000 line in the weeks ahead.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5328 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.5550 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.5271 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5643 (minor)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5500) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays above Wednesday's low of 1.5328. The five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but the slow stochastic indicator is bullish at oversold levels. Resistance is at Friday's high of 1.5550. A breach would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the July 3 high of 1.5643, and then the July 1 high of 1.5732. An extension of the rise would target the June 29 high of 1.5787, and then the June 24 high of 1.5802; followed by the 1.5909-1.5928 band, marked by the June 22 high and the June 18 high. But a drop below 1.5328 would turn the near-term outlook negative, targeting the 100-day moving average, now at 1.5271, and then the June 9 low of 1.5256. An extension of the fall would target the June 5 reaction low of 1.5188, and then the June 1 reaction low of 1.5168. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bullish, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish at overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the June 18 high of 1.5928. A rise above 1.5928 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to 1.6187--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to the April 13 low of 1.4563.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9329 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9517 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9241 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.9545 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9395) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 0.9517. The daily chart is mixed as the MACD indicator is bullish, but the slow stochastic measure is bearish at overbought levels. Support is at Friday's low of 0.9329. A breach would tilt the near-term outlook negative, targeting the June 29 reaction low of 0.9241, and then the 0.9152-0.9145 band, marked by the June 22 low and the June 18 low. An extension of the fall would target the 0.9073-0.9065 band, defined by the May 14 low and the May 7 low which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128. But a rise above 0.9517, which is near the 200-day moving average, would turn the near-term outlook positive, targeting the May 27 reaction high of 0.9545. An extension of the rise would target the April 28 high of 0.9598, and then the April 23 reaction high of 0.9718. The medium-term USD/CHF outlook is mixed as the weekly slow stochastic measure is bullish near oversold levels, but the weekly MACD indicator is bearish. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the May 27 reaction high of 0.9545. A rise above 0.9545 would tilt the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the April 13 reaction high of 0.9863, and then to the March 12 swing high of 1.0128.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.2560 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.2753 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.2534 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.2783 (moderate)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2705) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays below Friday's high of 1.2753. The five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but the slow stochastic measure is bearish at overbought levels. A rise above 1.2753 would turn the near-term view positive, targeting the 1.2779-1.2783 band, marked by Tuesday's high and the March 31 reaction high, and then the March 18 swing high of 1.2834. An extension of the rise would target the psychological 1.3000 line, and then the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; followed by the Sept. 1, 2004 high of 1.3166. Support is at the July 6 low of 1.2560. A breach would tilt the near-term outlook negative, targeting the July 3 low of 1.2534, and then the July 1 low of 1.2471. An extension of the fall would target the June 30 low of 1.2358, and then the June 29 low of 1.2302, followed the June 24 low of 1.2273. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is positive as the five-week moving average is above the 15-week moving average and advancing. A breach of the March 18 swing high of 1.2834 would target the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; and then the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001 in the weeks ahead.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 12, 2015 22:47 ET (02:47 GMT)

        This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 12, 2015 22:47 ET (02:47 GMT)

#ChartingForex
#SaleForex
#USD_Consolidating
#FX
#Forex
#MostMajor
#CurrenciesWeek