(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. USD/CNY could take on a bullish technical bias if it closes Monday above 6.2100 and thus in the Bollinger uptrend channel. U.S. dollar strength may return as the euro retreats on the heightened possibility of Greece being forced out of the eurozone. Discussions between eurogroup ministers over the weekend resulted in no bailout deal offered to Greece yet, but the group of creditors removed the possibility of a haircut on Greece's debt obligations--unless it leaves the eurozone. China stocks are still in focus across the region, with hopes that recent government market intervention has restored confidence in the stock market. If the Shanghai composite index manages to close above 4,063 Monday, it will nullify the bearish signal of the Bollinger downtrend channel, which could spur more bottom-picking by punters and thus push the index higher in the near term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2076 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2051 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.2043 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 6.2100 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2127 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2355 (weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--possible uptrend. USD/TWD is turning bullish as the pair inches into the Bollinger uptrend channel at 31.230. A Monday close above this mark is required to confirm the bullish technical signal that might lead the pair higher toward 31.500. The pricing of the benchmark 1-month nondeliverable forward contract in the offshore market has risen to just above par from a discount of 0.020 on Friday, indicating that punters are turning bullish on the greenback. The safe haven U.S. dollar is broadly stronger Monday after the eurogroup meetings over the weekend effectively tightened the noose for Greece. The likelihood of a Greek exit from the eurozone has hence risen, thus weighing on EUR/USD and thereby rallying the U.S. dollar index. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.230 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 31.140 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 31.050 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.310 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.500 (psychological resistance).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW opens higher Monday, reflecting bullish-USD pressure arising from the increasing likelihood that Greece may be forced out of the eurozone. The Bollinger uptrend channel has thus been kept in play, pointing USD/KRW toward the round-figure trading barrier of 1,140. The pair will notch a new two-year high if it surpasses last week's peak of 1,140. eurozone creditors, in a series of meetings over the weekend, offered no immediate lifeline for Greece but ruled out debt forgiveness unless Greece leaves the eurozone. The euro has hence weakened and rallied the U.S. dollar index, thereby lifting USD/Asia up as well. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,130 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,129 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,139 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,140 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,150 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--possible uptrend. USD/SGD may reinstate a bullish chart bias if it ends Monday above 1.3515 and thereby inside the Bollinger uptrend channel. Helping the greenback to rise is euro weakness sparked by the tough stance of eurozone creditors against Greece. EUR/USD has declined since the weekend meetings between eurozone leaders failed to provide a bailout deal for Greece. Instead, they have suggested tougher reform measures, while saying that a debt haircut won't be considered unless Greece leaves the currency union. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3457 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 1.3449 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3515 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3571 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR is holding on to its bullish technical bias--provided it closes Monday above 3.7950--as risk appetite subsides on the increasing likelihood that Greece might be forced out of the eurozone. The safe haven U.S. dollar is creeping back up as the EUR/USD pair declines on the lack of a bailout deal for Greece over the weekend. Domestic political instability may also add to bullish-USD/MYR pressure. Investigations into allegations of government corruption are likely to keep investors wary of holding the ringgit. USD/MYR could head back up to the 16.5-year high of 3.8150 recorded last week if the pair stays above 3.7950 by Monday's close. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7950 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.7800 (psychological support), then at 3.7690 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.8000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.8220 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB has lost some momentum but remains biased higher as long as it stays inside the Bollinger uptrend channel that currently supports at 33.89. The U.S. dollar could rise again if the euro declines further. The EUR/USD pair has retreated as traders react to the increasing possibility that Greece might be forced to leave the eurozone so that creditors will agree to reduce its debt obligations. Overall risk appetite is tentatively bullish due to optimism that China's government has arrested the selloff in its stock market, but if Greece indeed opts to leave the eurozone, investor sentiment may crater again and the safe haven U.S. dollar will soar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.89 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.79 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 33.68 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 34.00 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and round-figure trading barrier), before 34.20 (psychological resistance).
USD/PHP--consolidation. USD/PHP is likely to consolidate within a range of 45.06-45.18 as the safe haven U.S. dollar firms up due to a retreat of the euro after weekend meetings between eurozone leaders offered no immediate bailout for Greece. If USD/PHP ends Monday above 45.15 the bullish signal of the Bollinger uptrend channel will be reinstated and could lead the pair up toward 45.32 in the days ahead. The screws have been tightened on Greece as creditors laid down tougher conditions for the resumption of bailout talks, while saying that a partial debt write-off won't be considered unless Greece leaves the eurozone. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is 45.12 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 45.06 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.18 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.24 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 45.32 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--consolidation. USD/IDR may continue to bob in a span of 13,300-13,350 with a chance of heading higher initially as the U.S. dollar firms up due to the euro's retreat. If USD/IDR closes Monday above 13,350, a bullish technical bias would be confirmed that might motivate punters to bet on more U.S. dollar strength. The weekend discussions between Greece's eurozone creditors has revealed a hardline stance that makes a Greek exit from the eurozone seem more likely than before. The euro has hence come off from its Friday highs, which were indicative of market optimism that a new bailout deal might be agreed upon. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,300 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 13,280 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,210 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone). Immediate resistance is at 13,320 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 13,350 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,370 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,440 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/INR--possible downtrend. A bearish USD/INR technical bias could return as crude oil prices drift back down--a positive for India's current account deficit and thereby the rupee. If USD/INR closes Monday below 63.31 it would be inside the Bollinger downtrend channel--a bearish chart signal that might motivate short-term punters to short the U.S. dollar. But overarching U.S. dollar strength due to the retreat of the euro--after eurozone creditors adopted a tougher stance on Greece's bailout terms over the weekend--may keep USD/INR supported. The increasing possibility that Greece might be forced to leave the eurozone so as to gain partial debt forgiveness has depressed the euro and thereby pushed the U.S. dollar index higher. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.31 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 63.09 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.52 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 63.74
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 12, 2015 21:08 ET (01:08 GMT)
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