(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--possible uptrend. Overnight U.S. dollar index strength - due to the euro's slide - could result in a higher daily USD/CNY benchmark rate, which could propel spot USD/CNY higher. If the pair ends Tuesday above 6.2102 it would be in the Bollinger uptrend channel and thus display a bullish technical bias for the short term. The euro fell sharply after an initial spike when headlines of a new bailout agreement for Greece broke. The common currency later gave up gains and ended lower on concerns that the deal leaves Greece in a worse position than before, while the eurozone as a whole still struggles with persistently low growth. Now that Greece is likely to remain in the eurozone, avoiding the worst-case scenario of a Grexit, it might make the U.S. Federal Reserve more confident in raising interest rates later this year - a bullish factor for the greenback. The Fed has previously said that global financial market instability might cause a deferral of the first U.S. interest rate increase in this cycle. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2076 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2051 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.2043 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 6.2102 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2127 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2355 (weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--possible uptrend. USD/TWD could be on its way higher in the short term if it closes Tuesday higher and inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel which begins at 31.230. The U.S. dollar is stronger across the board following a sharp drop in EUR/USD and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The euro fell despite the eurogroup ministers reaching an agreement to offer Greece a new bailout. Fears of U.S. interest rates rising - now that the global financial market is more likely to stabilize with Greece remaining in the eurozone - sent U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback higher. Bullishness for the USD would be confirmed if the price of the benchmark 1-month USD/TWD nondeliverable forward contract in the offshore market rises above par from Monday's discount of 0.020. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.140 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 31.050 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.230 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 31.320 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.500 (psychological resistance).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW gaps higher for a second day as the U.S. dollar roars back up following a sharp drop in EUR/USD overnight. The pair is likely to break the round-figure trading barrier of 1,140 and in so doing, trigger stoploss orders that might cause another spike. The pair will notch a new two-year high if it surpasses last week's peak of 1,140. The driver for the euro's overnight fall was the eurogroup's fresh bailout plan for Greece - contingent on harsher austerity measures - that should keep it in the eurozone. This would make global financial markets more stable, therefore more conducive for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year - a big positive factor for the greenback. U.S. Treasury yields rose overnight, augmenting that rally of the U.S. dollar index. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,130 (round-figure trading barrier and base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1,140 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and round-figure trading barrier), before 1,150 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD is on track toward 1.3692 - where the weekly Bollinger uptrend channel begins - now that the new bailout plan for Greece makes it more likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will stick to its agenda of raising interest rates later this year. USD/SGD confirmed entry into the daily Bollinger uptrend channel overnight as EUR/USD sank and closed near its low, while U.S. Treasury yields rose on heightened rate-hike expectations. USD/SGD could take on a medium-term bullish bias if it also activates the weekly Bollinger uptrend channel. With Greece potentially out of the limelight for now, traders are focusing on a likely U.S. rate hike in September - which is a positive factor for the greenback. Domestic data released earlier showed Singapore's second-quarter GDP grew 1.7% on year, versus expectations for a rise of 2.3%, confirming that the city-state's economy continues to slow. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1.3532 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1.3650 (psychological resistance), then at 1.3692 (weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3700 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR is likely to keep rising, although speculation of central bank intervention has been keeping a lid on it for now, as the U.S. dollar index surges on an overnight tanking of EUR/USD. The euro has fallen sharply since a new bailout plan for Greece was announced Monday. The market reckons that this makes the global financial environment more stable, and therefore makes it more likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lift interest rates later this year. Domestic political instability may also add to bullish-USD/MYR pressure. Investigations into allegations of government corruption are likely to keep investors wary of holding the ringgit. USD/MYR could head back up to the 16.5-year high of 3.8150 recorded last week if the pair stays above 3.8000 by Tuesday's close. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.8000 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and round-figure trading barrier), then at 3.7800 (psychological support), before 3.7700 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.8280 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.8500 (psychological resistance).
USD/THB--uptrend. USD/THB regained bullish momentum overnight as the steep drop of EUR/USD sent the U.S. dollar index soaring into a bullish technical pattern. The euro has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar now that Greece is getting a fresh bailout - making the global financial environment more stable and thereby more conducive for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon. Monday's rise of the greenback - partially due to higher U.S. Treasury yields - has triggered a bullish chart signal for the U.S. dollar index, suggesting that the greenback will keep advancing in the near term. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 34.00 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 33.93 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 33.81 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 34.05 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 34.20 (psychological resistance).
USD/PHP--possible uptrend. USD/PHP is likely to rally, as the U.S. dollar index soared overnight, and may activate a bullish chart signal that might propel the pair higher in the near term. If USD/PHP ends Tuesday above 45.18 it would be inside the Bollinger uptrend channel and likely to rise toward 45.35 in the days ahead. The U.S. dollar is on the rise as traders expect that the U.S. Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates now that Greece is likely to remain in the eurozone thus averting a potential global financial crisis. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 2.45% from 2.38%, implying that investors are pricing in a U.S. rate increase ahead. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is 45.12 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 45.06 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.18 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.24 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 45.35 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--possible uptrend. USD/IDR is likely to rebound from weakness seen on Monday as the greenback rallies across the board following the announcement of the eurogroup's new bailout plan for Greece. The agreement reached between eurozone ministers on Monday makes it likely that Greece can stay in the eurozone, which has recently become a factor for the U.S. Federal Reserve in deciding whether to raise interest rates. The Fed has said that it may hold off from tightening monetary policy if the global financial environment is unstable. The greenback therefore rallied as markets priced in the higher likelihood of a U.S. interest rate increase. Indonesia's central bank meets later today to decide on monetary policy but no change is expected - despite signs of slowing economic growth - as Bank Indonesia is wary of tipping the rupiah into further weakness. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,300 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 13,270 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,210 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support zone). Immediate resistance is at 13,320 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 13,350 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,370 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,440 (top of
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2015 21:05 ET (01:05 GMT)
weekly Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/INR--consolidation higher. USD/INR may consolidate toward the top of its current range of 63.34-63.66. If the pair ends Tuesday above 63.66 it would be inside the Bollinger uptrend channel and likely to keep climbing. While the recent slippage of crude oil prices is positive for the rupee and thereby ought to weigh on USD/INR, the overarching bullish-USD tone that has emerged with Monday's sharp drop of the euro makes it unlikely for USD/INR to fall much. The U.S. dollar is rising as markets expect that the stabilizing outlook for the European Union - due to the new bailout plan that will help keep Greece in the eurozone - will make the U.S. Federal Reserve more willing to raise interest rates later this year. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.34 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.18 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.50 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 63.66 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 63.81 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2015 21:05 ET (01:05 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD/Asia Rallies as Euro Tanks, U.S. Yields Rise -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.