(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade with bullish bias. Underpinned by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 17.41% to 13.9; S&P 500 closed up 1.11% at 2,099.6 overnight) after Greece and its creditors reached a conditional deal--eurozone leaders would give Greece up to EUR86 billion in fresh aid as long as the Greek Parliament by Wednesday passes pension overhauls and sales-tax increases that voters overwhelmingly rejected in a referendum just a week ago. USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 3.1 bps to 2.446% Monday); positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.80 versus 96.01 early Monday) as reduced risk of "Grexit" clears way for the Federal Reserve to begin raising U.S interest rates; demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales. Data focus: 1000 GMT U.S. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism (forecast 98.4); 1230 GMT U.S. June import price index (forecast +0.1% on-month); 1230 GMT U.S. June retail sales (forecast +0.3% on-month); 1400 GMT U.S. May business inventories (forecast +0.3% on-month). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels. Resistance at 123.72 (July 2 high); breach would target 123.99 (June 26 high), then 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high). Support at 122.40 (hourly chart), then at 122.00 (Monday's low); breach would target 121.55 (Friday's low), then 120.44-120.38 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low), psychological 120.00 line, 119.22 (May 18 low) and 118.86 (May 14 reaction low).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; increase in short-euro hedges as European stocks rise (Stoxx Europe 600 closed up 1.97% at 396.46 Monday); euro-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk appetite; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment soothed by conditional deal reached between Greece and its international creditors. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany June final HCPI (forecast -0.2% on-month, +0.1% on-year); 0900 GMT Germany July ZEW Indicator of economic sentiment (forecast 28.0); 0900 GMT eurozone May industrial production (forecast +0.2% on-month, +1.9% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.0994-1.0989 (Monday's low-Thursday's low); breach would target 1.0972 (Wednesday's low), then 1.0915 (July 7 low), 1.0887 (June 1 low) and 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1119 (hourly chart), then at 1.1196 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.1215 (Friday's high), then 1.1243 (June 30 high), 1.1278 (June 29 high) and 1.1347 (June 23 high).
AUD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment. But AUD/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk tolerance. Aussie vulnerable to movements in China stocks. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia June NAB business survey. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics reverted to bearish mode at oversold levels. Support at 0.7380 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7368 (Wednesday's six-year low), then 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low) and psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7444 (hourly chart), then at 0.7468 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7496-0.7501 (Friday's high-July 7 high), then 0.7533 (July 6 high), 0.7648-0.7656 band (July 3 high-July 2 high), 0.7738 (July 1 high), 0.7752 (June 25 high) and 0.7771 (June 24 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk appetite. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.6619 (five-year low hit July 7); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6721 (hourly chart), then at 0.6752 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.6771 (Friday's high), then 0.6810 (July 1 high), 0.6854 (June 30 high), 0.6880 (June 29 high) and 0.6924 (June 25 reaction high).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD losses tempered by improved investor risk appetite; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May CML monthly lending trends; 0830 GMT U.K. June CPI (forecast +0.1% on-month, 0.0% on-year); 0830 GMT U.K. June producer prices. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Support at 1.5477 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5361 (Friday's low), then 1.5341 (Thursday's low), 1.5328 (Wednesday's low), 1.5272 (100-day moving average), 1.5256 (June 9 low), 1.5219 (June 8 low) and 1.5188 (June 5 reaction low). Resistance at 1.5547 (hourly chart), then at 1.5588 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.5608 (July 7 high), then 1.5628 (July 6 high), 1.5643 (July 3 high) and 1.5732 (July 1 high).
USD/CHF--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. Data focus: 0715 GMT Switzerland June PPI, import price index. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels. Resistance at 0.9517 (Thursday's high, near 200-day moving average); breach would target 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), then 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high). Support at 0.9452 (hourly chart), then at 0.9365 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.9329 (Friday's low), then 0.9241 (June 29 low), 0.9207 (June 23 low), 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low) and 0.9108 (May 15 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-four-month high 1.2790 Monday. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; soft oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 54 cents at $52.20/bbl Monday). But USD/CAD gains tempered by loonie demand on buoyant CAD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.2790 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.2833 (March 18 swing high), then psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high). Support at 1.2694 (hourly chart), then at 1.2668 (Monday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.2652 (Thursday's low), then 1.2640 (July 7 low), 1.2560 (July 6 low), 1.2534 (July 3 low), 1.2471 (July 1 low) and 1.2358 (June 30 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by soft EUR/USD undertone. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by reduced safe-haven appeal of yen as global risk sentiment improves on Greek deal. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels. Support at 135.31 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.72 (Friday's low), then 133.26 (Thursday's low), 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 136.97 (hourly chart), then at 137.76 (Monday's high); breach would target 138.07 (June 29 high), then 139.15 (June 24 high) and psychological 140.00 line.
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Undermined by soft EUR/USD undertone. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish near overbought levels. Support at 0.7084 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7056-0.7050 band (July 7 low-July 6 low), then 0.6981 (seven-and-a-half year low hit June 29), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7157 (hourly chart), then at 0.7202 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7223 (Friday's high), then 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2015 19:27 ET (23:27 GMT)
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