The following are projected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:
(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
Immediate Range Larger Range
USD/JPY 103.82-104.49 103.50-104.92
EUR/USD 1.3157-1.3261 1.3104-1.3297
AUD/USD 0.9229-0.9329 0.9211-0.9345
NZD/USD 0.8336-0.8409 0.8277-0.8434
GBP/USD 1.6525-1.6601 1.6459-1.6678
USD/CHF 0.9121-0.9189 0.9100-0.9231
USD/CAD 1.0924-1.0986 1.0881-1.1004
EUR/JPY 137.32-138.05 137.03-138.46
EUR/GBP 0.7965-0.8016 0.7921-0.8036
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting seven-month high 104.49 this morning. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 82.56 versus 82.16 early Friday) after less-dovish-than-expected speech from Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole on Friday--her comments appeared more neutral than previously about concerns over slack in the labor market, encouraging market participants to prepare for the eventual rise in official short-term interest rates. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers, rise in shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.492% versus 0.468% late Thursday). But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; selling of yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (S&P 500 slipped 0.2% Friday to close at 1,988.4) on fresh signs of Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Data focus: 1230 GMT New York Fed President William Dudley speaks, July Chicago Fed National Activity Index; 1345 GMT Markit flash U.S. August services PMI; 1400 GMT U.S. July new home sales (forecast +4.7% to 425,000). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought; five- & 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 104.49 (this morning high); breach would expose upside to 104.84-104.92 band (Jan. 23 high-Jan. 16 high), then 105.45-105.49 band (five-year high hit Jan. 2 - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of decline from June 22, 2007 high of 124.14 to Oct. 31, 2011 low of 75.32). Support at 103.82 (hourly chart), then at 103.50 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 102.90 (Wednesday's low), then 102.53 (Tuesday's low), 102.20-102.13 band (Aug. 18 low-Aug. 15 low) and 102.02 (Aug. 11 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting 11-and-a-half month low 1.3185 this morning. EUR sentiment dented as ECB President Draghi said at the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium that he was confident the policy moves announced in June would bolster the euro-zone economy but the ECB stood ready to do more. EUR/USD also weighed by positive dollar sentiment; receding investor risk appetite; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0800 GMT Germany August Ifo business climate index. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold; five- & 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.3157 (Sept. 9, 2013 low); breach would expose downside to 1.3104 (Sept. 6, 2013 reaction low), then 1.2992 (July 15, 2013 low) and 1.2755 (July 9, 2013 swing low). Resistance at 1.3261 (hourly chart), then at 1.3297 (Friday's high); breach would target 1.3324 (Wednesday's high), then 1.3364 (Tuesday's high), 1.3401 (Aug. 18 high), 1.3412-1.3416 (Aug. 15 high-Aug. 13 high) and 1.3433 (Aug. 8 high).
AUD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; subdued investor risk appetite; soft iron ore prices. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral. Support at 0.9238-0.9229 band (Thursday's low-June 3 reaction low); breach would target 0.9211 (May 28 low), then 0.9205-0.9200 (May 21 low-May 2 low), 0.9172 (200-day moving average) and 0.9051 (March 24 low). Resistance at 0.9329 (Friday's high), then at 0.9345 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.9357 (Aug. 7 high), then 0.9373 (Aug. 6 high), 0.9388 (July 30 high) and 0.9416-0.9424 band (July 29 high-July 25 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-six-month low 0.8336 this morning. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; waning investor risk appetite; weak dairy prices; reduced expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold; five- & 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.8336 (this morning low), then at 0.8277 (Feb. 26 low); breach would target 0.8258 (Feb. 24 low), then 0.8240 (March 20 reaction low) and 0.8048 (Feb. 4 swing low). Resistance at 0.8409 (hourly chart), then at 0.8429-0.8434 (Friday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.8483 (Tuesday's high), then 0.8502 (Aug. 15 high), 0.8514 (Aug. 14 high), 0.8531-0.8534 (Aug. 5 high-Aug. 1 high) and 0.8556 (July 29 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting five-month low 1.6525 this morning. Financial markets in U.K. are shut Monday for a public holiday. GBP/USD weighed by positive dollar sentiment; decreased investor risk appetite. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold; five- & 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.6525 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 1.6459 (March 24 swing low), then 1.6380 (Feb. 10 low) and 1.6250 (Feb. 5 reaction low). Resistance at 1.6595-1.6601 band (Friday's high-Thursday's high), then at 1.6678 (Wednesday's high, near 200-day moving average); breach would target 1.6728 (Tuesday's high), then 1.6739 (Aug. 18 high), 1.6842 (Aug. 13 high) and 1.6864 (Aug. 7 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting nine-month high 0.9179 this morning. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains tempered by flows to haven CHF on renewed Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought; five- & 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 0.9189 (Nov. 20 high); breach would expose upside to 0.9231 (Nov. 11 high), then 0.9249 (Nov. 7 swing high) and 0.9301 (Sept. 16, 2013 high). Support at 0.9121 (hourly chart), then at 0.9100 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.9086 (Wednesday's low), then 0.9061 (Tuesday's low), 0.9020 (Aug. 15 low), 0.9002 (July 24 low, near 55-day moving average) and 0.8964 (July 18 low).
USD/CAD--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by positive dollar sentiment; diminished investor risk tolerance; soft oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 31 cents Friday at $93.65/bbl). Canadian data were mixed on Friday as stronger-than-expected 1.1% on-month increase in Canada retail sales to C$42.58 billion in June (versus forecast +0.3%) offset lower-than-expected Canada July CPI of +2.1% on-year (versus forecast +2.2%). Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics in bullish mode; five-day moving average rising above 15-day MA. Resistance at 1.0980-1.0986 band (Friday's high-Thursday's high); breach would target 1.1004 (May 2 high), then 1.1053 (April 23 reaction high). Support at 1.0924 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0881 (Tuesday's low), then 1.0871-1.0861 band (Aug. 18 low-Aug. 15 low), 1.0844 (July 30 low), 1.0792 (July 28 low) and 1.0732 (July 25 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bearish bias. Weighed by diminished investor risk appetite; Japan exporter sales; weak EUR sentiment. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; buoyant USD/JPY undertone. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode; five-day moving average above 15-day MA and advancing. Support at 137.32 (Friday's low), then at 137.03 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 136.82-136.78 (Tuesday's low-Aug. 15 low), then 136.62 (Aug. 13 low), 136.37 (Aug. 12 low), 135.73 (eight-and-a-half month low hit Aug. 8) and psychological 135.00 line. Resistance at 138.05 (this morning high); breach would target 138.46 (July 14 high), then 138.77 (July 9 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in bearish mode. Support at 0.7965 (Wednesday's low, matching 55-day moving average); breach would expose downside to 0.7921 (Aug. 13 low), then 0.7907-0.7897 band (Aug. 6 low-July 25 low), 0.7882 (July 24 low), 0.7866 (near-two-year low hit July 23) and 0.7810 (Aug. 16, 2012 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8016 (Friday's high), then at 0.8027-0.8036 band (Tuesday's high-Aug. 14 high); breach would target 0.8064 (June 12 high, near 100-day moving average), then 0.8122 (June 9 high) and 0.8149-0.8152 (June 4 high-May 29 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 24, 2014 19:53 ET (23:53 GMT)
0 Response to "USD Up As Yellen Keeps Tightening Expectations Intact - ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK"
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