(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bullish bias as markets await 0145 GMT HSBC flash China October manufacturing PMI. USD/JPY underpinned by positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.75 versus 85.39 early Wednesday) as U.S. Treasury yields inched higher (10-year at 2.219% versus 2.208% late Tuesday) after U.S. September CPI rose 0.1% in line with expectations, calming fears about the spread of deflation. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; wider-than-expected Japan September trade deficit. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; selling of yen crosses amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 11.13% to 17.87, S&P 500 closed 0.73% lower at 1,927.11 overnight) amid reports of shootings in Canada's parliament building. Other data: 0135 GMT Markit flash Japan October manufacturing PMI; 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended October 18, September Chicago Fed national activity index; 1300 GMT U.S. August monthly house price index; 1345 GMT Market flash U.S. October manufacturing PMI; 1400 GMT U.S. September Conference Board leading indicators; 1500 GMT U.S. October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish but stochastics rising from oversold. Resistance at 107.40-107.49 band (Monday's high-Oct. 15 high); breach would expose upside to 108.15 (Oct. 10 high), then 108.32 (Oct. 9 high), 108.74 (Oct. 8 high), 109.25 (Oct. 7 high) and 109.85-109.91 band (Oct. 6 high-Oct. 3 high). Support at 106.78 (Wednesday's low); breach would tilt near-term outlook negative, targeting 106.25 (Tuesday's low), then 106.13 (Friday's low), 105.51 (Oct. 16 low), 105.19 (Oct. 15 low), 104.67 (Sept. 5 low) and 100-day moving average (now at 104.26).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Spotlight Thursday on 0800 GMT Markit flash eurozone October PMI. EUR/USD undermined by expectations that the European Central Bank could include purchase of corporate bonds as part of its stimulus program; positive USD sentiment; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP crosses. Other data: 0730 GMT Markit flash Germany October PMI, 1400 GMT eurozone October flash consumer confidence indicator. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought. Support at 1.2637 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.2625-1.2620 (Oct. 15 low-Oct. 13 low), then 1.2605 (Oct. 10 low), 1.2583 (Oct. 7 low) and 1.2504-1.2500 (Oct. 6 low-Oct. 3 two-year low). Resistance at 1.2723 (hourly chart), then at 1.2740 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2841-1.2845 (Tuesday's high-Oct. 16 high), then 1.2887 (Oct. 15 high), 1.2901 (Sept. 23 high), 1.2929 (Sept. 19 high) and 1.2947 (55-day moving average).
AUD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by positive USD sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Aussie vulnerable to 0145 GMT HSBC flash China October manufacturing PMI data. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode but stochastics neutral, five- & 15-day moving averages meandering sideways. Support at 0.8750-0.8742 band (Wednesday's low-Monday's low), then at 0.8730 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8684 (Oct. 16 low), then 0.8673 (Oct. 15 low), 0.8649-0.8641 band (Oct. 13 low-Oct. 3 low), 0.8631 (July 19, 2010 reaction low) and 0.8314 (July 1, 2010 reaction low). Resistance at 0.8815 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.8832 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.8860 (Oct. 15 high), then 0.8898 (Oct. 9 high) and 0.8927 (Sept. 23 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by lower-than-expected New Zealand 3Q CPI of +0.3% on-quarter (versus forecast +0.5%); positive USD sentiment; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought. Support at 0.7860 (this morning low); breach would expose downside to 0.7804 (Oct. 15 low), then 0.7792 (Oct. 13 low) and 0.7780 (Oct. 8 low). Resistance at 0.7961 (hourly chart), then at 0.7990 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8033 (Tuesday's high); then 0.8093 (Sept. 24 high), 0.8145 (Sept. 23 high) and 0.8169-0.8178 band (Sept. 22-Sept. 19 highs).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive USD sentiment; dovish October Bank of England MPC meeting minutes showing the committee split 7-2 in favor of keeping rates on hold, with the majority far from convinced for an early rate increase; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. September retail sales, 1000 GMT U.K. October CBI quarterly industrial trends survey. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned bearish. Support at 1.6009 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5940 (Oct. 16 low), then 1.5873 (Oct. 15 11-month low), 1.5852 (Nov. 12, 2012 reaction low) and 1.5720 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4812-1.7191 July 9, 2013-July 15, 2014 advance). Resistance at 1.6077 (hourly chart), then at 1.6131 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.6184 (Tuesday's high), then 1.6226 (Oct. 9 high), 1.6251 (Oct. 1 high), 1.6287 (Sept. 30 high) and 1.6332 (Sept. 26 high).
USD/CHF--to trade in higher range. Supported by positive USD sentiment; dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy; franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; contagion from weak EUR on CHF. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold. Resistance at 0.9543 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.9562-0.9572 band (Oct. 15 high-Oct. 13 high), then 0.9593-0.9601 band (Oct. 10 high-Oct. 8 high), 0.9625 (Oct. 7 high), 0.9690 (11-month high hit Oct. 6) and 0.9751 (July 9, 2013 swing high). Support at 0.9469 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9395 (Tuesday's low), then 0.9358-0.9351 band (Oct. 15 low-Sept. 23 low), 0.9329 (Sept. 18 low, near 55-day moving average), 0.9298 (Sept. 16 low) and 0.9284 (Sept. 5 low).
USD/CAD--to range-trade. CAD sentiment boosted after Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 1.0% Wednesday, but the BOC's policy statement was more hawkish-than-expected as it left out the word "neutral" from its characterization of its policy stance. USD/CAD also undermined by loonie demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CAD downside limited by positive USD sentiment; surprise 0.3% drop in Canada August retail sales (versus forecast for flat reading); shootings in Canada's parliament building; weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.97 Wednesday at $80.52/bbl). Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada August employment insurance. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish. Support at 1.1181 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1168-1.1161 band (Oct. 13 low-Oct. 10 low), then 1.1077-1.1067 band (Oct. 9 low-Oct. 2 low) and 1.1049 (Sept. 24 low). Resistance at 1.1292-1.1296 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1360 (Oct. 16 high), then 1.1385 (Oct. 15 five-year high) and 1.1666 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009 high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011 low of 0.9403).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by bearish EUR sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics reverting to bearish mode; five- & 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 135.44 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 134.15-134.09 band (Oct. 16 low-Nov. 20 low), then 132.15 (Nov. 11, 2013 low). Resistance at 136.21 (Wednesday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 136.89 (Tuesday's high), then 137.00-137.06 band (Monday's high-Oct. 10 high), 137.86-137.95 band (Oct. 9 high-Oct. 8 high), 138.80 (Oct. 1 high), 138.92 (Sept. 30 high) and 139.13 (Sept. 29 high).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Undermined by negative EUR sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish, positive MACD histogram bars contracting. Support at 0.7870 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.7846 (Oct. 13 low), then 0.7832 (Oct. 7 low), 0.7821-0.7817 (Oct. 6 low-Oct. 3 low), 0.7781 (Oct. 2 low) and 0.7758-0.7753 (Sept. 30 two-year low-July 23, 2012 swing low). Resistance at 0.7925 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.7942 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7981 (Friday's high), then 0.8027 (Oct. 16 high), 0.8046 (Oct. 15 high), 0.8065 (Sept. 10 reaction high) and 0.8089 (200-day moving average).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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October 22, 2014 19:55 ET (23:55 GMT)
0 Response to "USD Up as CPI Lift Yields; China Factory PMI in Focus -- ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK"
Thanks for give comment.