EUR/CHF 1.20 To Be Tested; JPY Volatile

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Thursday's high at 1.2496 has become a pivotal level, and EUR bears are defending 1.2496 resolutely during Monday's Asian session. The 1.2359/70 support area is the target, and EUR bears would only regain control of the short-term on a sustained break below 1.2359, exposing 1.2320. Recapturing ground above 1.2473 would bring the 1.2496 high back into the immediate picture, threatening a push higher to 1.2507 and 1.2535, while leaving the Dec. 8 low at 1.2247 as a pending bear failure.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: The bounce from Monday's Asian session low at 117.78 drags resistance at 119.13 into the frame. The 117.87 low defends Thursday's two-week low at 117.44, and an inverse Head-and-Shoulders base is emerging on the 60-minute chart. A push through the neckline around 119.13 is required to give the short-term trend reversal pattern credence, opening 119.92. Loss of 117.78 would dampen the hopes of USD bulls, exposing 117.44 and threatening a much deeper setback in the broader-term.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: Pressure is building on resistance at 1.5757, and an upside break is expected. The Dec. 8 reaction low at 1.5542 bears the hallmark of a bear failure, and a break above 1.5757 would open the key Nov. 27 lower high at 1.5824. Support at 1.5660 would have to be broken in order to question the near-term bullish outlook, which has protection at 1.5685.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: Last week's decline is threatening to extend towards a wave equality target at 0.9525. The bear wave from the Dec. 8 peak at 0.9818 set a two-week low at 0.9610 during Monday's Asian session, and the 0.9525 objective lies close to the important Nov. 19 higher low at 0.9530. Breaching that 0.9530 higher low would consign the 0.9818 peak to bull failure status, creating additional downside risk to the Oct. 15 reaction low at 0.9360. Recapturing ground above 0.9700/10 is required to give USD bulls some control back.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Lies trapped in a near-term range between 0.7875 and 0.7953. More of the same is expected during Monday's session, and only a concerted wave of EUR bull pressure would manage to force a break last week's high at 0.7953, opening 0.7976 and the 0.80 area. EUR bears remain in control of the broader-term, and a break below 0.7875 would drag the December lows at 0.7833 and 0.7844 back into view.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: There is risk of a bearish outside day and bearish engulfing candle forming on the daily chart, following weakness from 148.44 during Monday's Asian session. The setback questions the recovery from Thursday's 146.45 bear trap low, and a push into new session lows below 146.86 would leave that 146.45 low exposed, threatening deeper weakness towards 145.10. The session high at 148.44 would have to be broken in order to put EUR bulls in control, opening the Dec. 8 peak at 149.79.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bullish.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The SNB floor at 1.20 remains under attack, helped by Thursday's dominant bearish outside day. A downwave equality target lies at 1.2006, although the structure of the decline suggests the 1.20 level will come under a barrage of bear pressure. However, it is unlikely that the 1.20 level will be decisively breached. Thursday's key high at 1.2038 would have to be exceeded in order to put EUR bulls in control, which has protection at 1.2020.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Bounces from a new four-and-a-half year low at 0.8204, although corrective upside risk is likely to be limited to 0.8294/99. The powerful bear wave from the Nov. 17 intra-wave lower high at 0.8797 has generated additional downside risk to 0.8140, which would become available on a break below 0.8204. An intra-wave lower high at 0.8299 has become a pivotal short-term resistance level, looking to prevent a push higher to Thursday's high at 0.8376.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        December 15, 2014 02:40 ET (07:40 GMT)

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