(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low 118.86 Tuesday. Liquidity thin as financial markets in Japan, Germany, Italy and Switzerland are shut for public holiday; while financial markets in several other countries will close early for New Year's Eve. USD/JPY undermined by flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.71% to 15.92, S&P fell 0.49% overnight) as ongoing political uncertainty in Greece crimps investor risk appetite. USD/JPY also weighed by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 89.93 versus 90.19 early Tuesday) after less-than-expected rise in U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index to 92.6 in December (versus forecast 94.0) from November's upwardly revised 91.0 (first reported as 88.7), smaller-than-expected 4.5% on-year rise in U.S. October S&P / Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (versus forecast +4.7%); lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.191% versus 2.204% late Monday); buy-yen orders from Japan exporters. But USD/JPY losses tempered by sell-yen orders from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy. Yen crosses vulnerable to 0145 GMT HSBC final China December manufacturing PMI data. Other data: 1330 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended Dec. 27 (forecast 290,000), 1445 GMT U.S. December ISM-Chicago PMI (forecast 60.0 versus November's 60.8), 1500 GMT U.S. November pending home sales index (forecast +0.5%). Daily chart tilting negative as MACD in bearish mode, stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 118.86-118.82 (Tuesday's low-Dec. 19 low); breach would expose downside to 118.26 (Dec. 18 low), then 116.30 (Dec. 17 low), 115.84 (55-day moving average) and 115.56 (Dec. 16 low). Resistance at 119.84 (hourly chart), then at 120.74-120.82 band (Monday's high-Dec. 23 high); breach would target 121.00 (Dec. 9 high), then 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8), 123.66 (July 9, 2007 high) and 124.16 (June 22, 2007 swing high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate after hitting two-year low 1.2123 Tuesday. Financial markets in Germany and Italy are shut for New Year's Eve. EUR/USD undermined by concerns that the Greek left-wing Syriza party--a potent opponent of the austerity-led policies ordered by Greece's international rescuers in exchange for two financial bailouts in 2010 and 2012--could win snap elections on Jan. 25 and disrupt external funding support for the country. EUR/USD also weighed by euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But euro sentiment soothed by larger-than-expected 3.1% on-year increase in eurozone November M3 money supply (versus forecast +2.6% and October's +2.5%). EUR/USD downside also limited by weaker dollar sentiment. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Resistance at 1.2188 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.2220-1.2226 (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 1.2256 (Thursday's high), 1.2273 (Dec. 22 high), 1.2302 (Dec. 19 high) and 1.2353 (Dec. 18 high). Support at 1.2123 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2040 (July 31, 2012 swing low), then psychological 1.2000 line and 1.1875 (June 7, 2010 swing low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting eight-day high 0.8203 Tuesday. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment; firmer iron ore prices (rose $3.30 Tuesday to $71.20/ton); month-end portfolio hedge adjustments; Aussie demand on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD gains tempered by Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia November financial aggregates, private sector credit, 0530 GMT Australia November international reserves. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish. Resistance at 0.8203 (Tuesday's high, matching Dec. 18 high); breach would target 0.8235 (Dec. 17 high), then 0.8274 (Dec. 15 high), 0.8298 (Dec. 12 high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 high). Support at 0.8119 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.8107-0.8101 band (Monday's low-Friday's low), then 0.8084 (Dec. 23 low), 0.8065 (May 25, 2010 swing low), psychological 0.8000 line and 0.7700 (July 13, 2009 reaction low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-three-week high 0.7849 Tuesday. Supported by weaker dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD gains tempered by Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Resistance at 0.7849 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7870 (Dec. 11 high), then 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high), 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high) and 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high). Support at 0.7768 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.7741 (Monday's low), then 0.7726 (Friday's low), 0.7690 (Dec. 23 low), 0.7679 (Dec. 18 low) and 0.7659 (Dec. 10 low).
GBP/USD--to trade in higher range. Underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD gains tempered by sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Daily chart mixed as bullish-piercing candlestick pattern completed Tuesday, MACD and stochastics turning bullish; but five-day moving average meandering sideways below falling 15-day moving average. Resistance at 1.5573 (Tuesday's high), then at 1.5585 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.5607 (Dec. 23 high), then 1.5665 (Dec. 22 high), 1.5682 (Dec. 19 high), 1.5756 (Dec. 17 high) and 1.5785 (Dec. 16 reaction high). Support at 1.5498 (Tuesday's low), then at 1.5484 (Dec. 23 near-16-month low); breach would expose downside to 1.5426 (Aug. 28, 2013 reaction low), then 1.5205 (Aug. 7, 2013 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate after hitting two-year high 0.9920 Tuesday. Financial markets in Switzerland are shut for New Year's Eve. USD/CHF undermined by weaker dollar sentiment. But USD/CHF downside limited by franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Support at 0.9864 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.9842-0.9832 band (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would target 0.9793-0.9785 band (Thursday's low-Dec. 19 low), then 0.9719 (Dec. 18 low), 0.9592 (Dec. 17 low) and 0.9552 (Dec. 16 low). Resistance at 0.9920 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9972 (July 24, 2012 swing high), then psychological 1.0000 line and 1.0066 (Dec. 1, 2010 reaction high).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; rebounding oil prices (Nymex crude hit five-and-a-half year low $52.70/bbl Tuesday but settled up at 51 cents $54.12/bbl). But USD/CAD losses tempered by loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Daily chart tilting negative as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday; MACD in bearish mode; stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.1598 (Tuesday's low), then at 1.1586 (Dec. 24 low); breach would target 1.1575 (Dec. 22 low), then 1.1562-1.1557 (Dec. 19 low-Dec. 17 low), 1.1545 (Dec. 15 low), 1.1512 (Dec. 12 low) and 1.1449 (Dec. 11 low). Resistance at 1.1650 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.1667-1.1673 band (Dec. 23 high-Dec. 17 five-year high), then 1.1724 (July 8, 2009 reaction high) and 1.1814 (May 18, 2009 high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-week low 144.76 Tuesday. Undermined by increased investor risk aversion; weak EUR sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD in bearish mode; stochastics turned bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 144.76-144.75 (Tuesday's low-Nov. 17 low); breach would target 144.15 (55-day moving average), then 143.19 (Nov. 12 low) and 142.06 (Nov. 10 low). Resistance at 145.66 (hourly chart), then at 146.73 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 147.23 (Monday's high), then 148.45 (Dec. 15 high), 148.86 (Dec. 9 high) and 149.79 (six-year high hit Dec. 8).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weak euro sentiment amid ongoing political uncertainty in Greece. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels. Support at 0.7805 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7794 (Nov. 12 low), then 0.7781 (Oct. 2 low), 0.7758-0.7753 (Sept. 30 reaction low-July 23, 2012 swing low) and 0.7692 (Oct. 20, 2008 swing low). Resistance at 0.7844 (Tuesday's high), then at 0.7857 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7877 (Thursday's high), then 0.7930 (Dec. 18 high), 0.7954 (Dec. 17 high), 0.7993 (200-day moving average) and 0.8006 (Dec. 16 high).
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 30, 2014 18:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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December 30, 2014 18:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
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