(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting one-month low 115.56 Tuesday as markets await 1900 GMT Federal Reserve interest rate decision: Fed could drop its pledge to hold rates steady for a "considerable time," taking a step toward raising short-term U.S. interest rates in the middle of next year. USD/JPY undermined by flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 15.43% to 23.57, S&P 500 closed 0.85% lower at 1,972.74 overnight) as fears mount over Russian economic collapse and its contagion on emerging markets, while below-forecast HSBC flash China December manufacturing PMI of 49.5 and drop in oil prices to five-and-a-half year lows Tuesday--Nymex crude hit $53.60/bbl, its cheapest since May 6, 2009--stoke concerns over slowing global economy. USD/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales; weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 87.94 versus 88.43 early Tuesday) on surprise 1.6% on-month drop in U.S. November housing starts (versus forecast +2.9%), larger-than-expected 5.2% decrease in building permits (versus forecast -0.5%), weaker-than-expected Markit flash U.S. December manufacturing PMI of 53.7 (versus forecast 56.0); lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.064% versus 2.116% late Monday). But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy; caution ahead of Federal Reserve's monetary decision. Other data: 2350 GMT Japan November provisional trade statistics, 0600 GMT Japan November revised machine tool orders, 1330 GMT U.S. November CPI (forecast -0.1%). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 115.56 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 115.44 (Nov. 17 low), then 114.88 (Nov. 12 low), 113.84 (Nov. 10 low) and 113.59 (55-day moving average). Resistance at 117.75 (hourly chart), then at 118.01 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 119.13-119.21 band (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 119.55 (Thursday's high), 119.92 (Dec. 10 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting high near-one-month high 1.2570 Tuesday as markets await U.S. FOMC interest rate decision. Euro sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected rise in Germany ZEW economic sentiment indicator to 34.9 in December from November's 11.5 (versus forecast +18.0); stronger-than-expected Markit Germany flash December manufacturing PMI of 51.2 (versus forecast 50.2); stronger-than-expected Markit eurozone flash December composite PMI of 51.7 (versus forecast 51.5) and manufacturing PMI of 50.8 (versus forecast 50.5). EUR/USD also underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment. But EUR/USD gains tempered by expectations for more aggressive stimulus measures by the European Central Bank in coming months; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; euro sales on retreating EUR/GBP cross. Data and event focus: Greek parliament votes on new president; 1000 GMT eurozone November final harmonised CPI (forecast -0.2% on-month, +0.3% on-year). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.2570-1.2575 (Tuesday's high-Nov. 20 high); breach would target 1.2599 (Nov. 19 reaction high), then 1.2770 (Oct. 29 reaction high). Support at 1.2434 (Tuesday's low), then at 1.2414 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.2384 (Friday's low), then 1.2370-1.2362 band (Thursday's low-Dec. 10 low), 1.2292 (Dec. 9 low), 1.2247-1.2239 band (Dec. 8 low-Aug. 10, 2012 low) and 1.2132 (Aug. 2, 2012 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting four-year low 0.8197 Tuesday as markets await U.S. FOMC interest rate decision. AUD/USD undermined by Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; concerns over slowing Chinese economy after weaker-than-expected HSBC flash China December manufacturing PMI of 49.5 (versus forecast 50.0); Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross; weak commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.95% at 238.75 Tuesday); recent jawboning against Aussie exchange rate from RBA officials. But AUD/USD losses tempered by weaker dollar sentiment. Data focus: 2330 GMT Australia October Westpac-Melbourne Institute indexes of economic activity, 0000 GMT Australia December vacancy report. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining; stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Support at 0.8197 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8086 (June 8, 2010 reaction low), then 0.8065 (May 25, 2010 swing low) and psychological 0.8000 line. Resistance at 0.8274 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.8287 (10-day exponential moving average), then 0.8298 (Friday's high), 0.8375 (Thursday's high), 0.8392 (Dec. 5 high), 0.8429 (Dec. 4 high) and 0.8466 (Dec. 3 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate as markets await U.S. FOMC interest rate decision. NZD sentiment boosted by 2.4% rise in Fonterra's GDT Price Index at latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD also supported by weaker dollar sentiment; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross; NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD upside limited by Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion; contagion from weak Aussie. Daily chart mixed as MACD histogram bars turned positive, but stochastics neutral. Support at 0.7719-0.7718 (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7659 (Dec. 10 low), then 0.7606 (two-and-a-half year low hit Dec. 9), 0.7451 (June 1, 2012 swing low) and 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011 swing low). Resistance at 0.7848 (Tuesday's high, matching Friday's high); breach would target 0.7870 (Thursday's high), then 0.7889 (Dec. 2 high), 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high) and 0.7926 (Nov. 27 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-three-week high 1.5785 Tuesday as markets await U.S. FOMC interest rate decision. GBP/USD supported by weaker dollar sentiment; sterling demand on retreating EUR/GBP cross. But GBP sentiment dented by softer-than-expected U.K. November CPI of -0.3% on-month, +1.0% on-year (versus forecast -0.1% on-month, +1.2% on-year). GBP/USD gains also tempered by sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Data focus: 0930 GMT U.K. unemployment rate in 3 months to October (forecast 5.9%), U.K. November jobless claimants (forecast -20,000); 0930 GMT U.K. December Bank of England MPC meeting minutes. Daily chart tilting positive as MACD bullish; stochastics reverting to bullish mode; five-day moving average staged bullish crossover against 15-day moving average. Resistance at 1.5785 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.5825 (Nov. 27 reaction high), then 1.5870 (55-day moving average), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high) and 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high). Support at 1.5713 (hourly chart), then at 1.5608-1.5599 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would target 1.5539 (Dec. 8 low), then 1.5504 (Sept. 2, 2013 low), 1.5426 (Aug. 28, 2013 reaction low) and 1.5205 (Aug. 7, 2013 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting high near-one-month low 0.9552 Tuesday as markets await U.S. FOMC interest rate decision. USD/CHF weighed by weaker dollar sentiment; spillover from stronger euro sentiment on the franc; flows to haven CHF amid increased risk aversion. But USD/CHF losses tempered by franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross; ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. Data focus: 1000 GMT Switzerland December ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.9552 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.9530 (Nov. 19 reaction low), then 0.9439 (Oct. 29 reaction low, near 100-day moving average), 0.9395 (Oct. 21 low) and 0.9358 (Oct. 15 reaction low). Resistance at 0.9658 (Tuesday's high), then at 0.9682 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.9699 (Friday's high), then 0.9710 (Thursday's high), 0.9723 (Dec. 10 high), 0.9778 (Dec. 9 high) and 0.9818 (one-and-a-half year high hit Dec. 8).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await U.S. FOMC interest rate decision. USD/CAD undermined by weaker dollar sentiment. But CAD sentiment dented by larger-than-expected 0.6% on-month drop in Canada October manufacturing shipments (versus forecast -0.3%). USD/CAD losses also tempered by weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit five-and-a-half year low $53.60/bbl Tuesday); loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. Data focus: 1330 GMT Canada October wholesale trade. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Support at 1.1604 (Tuesday's low), then at 1.1545 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.1512 (Friday's low), then 1.1449 (Thursday's low), 1.1430 (Dec. 10 low), 1.1394 (Dec. 9 low) and 1.1374 (Dec. 5 low). Resistance at 1.1672 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1724 (July 8, 2009 reaction high), then 1.1814 (May 18, 2009 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2014 18:31 ET (23:31 GMT)
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting high one-month low 144.96 Tuesday as markets await Federal Reserve interest rate decision. EUR/JPY undermined by increased risk aversion; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 144.96 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 144.75 (Nov. 17 low), then 144.27 (Nov. 14 low), 143.19 (Nov. 12 low) and 142.40 (55-day moving average). Resistance at 147.02 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 148.45 (Monday's high), then 148.86 (Dec. 9 high), 149.79 (Dec. 8 six-year high) and psychological 150.00 line.
EUR/GBP--to consolidate in lower range after hitting near-one-month high 0.8006 Tuesday. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.7931 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.7903 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7864-0.7856 band (Friday's low-Dec. 9 low), then 0.7835-0.7828 band (Dec. 8 low-Dec. 3 low), 0.7794 (Nov. 12 low), 0.7781 (Oct. 2 low) and 0.7758-0.7753 (Sept. 30 reaction low-July 23, 2012 swing low). Resistance at 0.8006 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.8027 (Nov. 20 high, near 200-day moving average), then 0.8039 (Nov. 19 reaction high), 0.8046 (Oct. 15 reaction high) and 0.8065 (Sept. 10 reaction high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2014 18:31 ET (23:31 GMT)
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