(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in higher range as markets await Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting decision. USD/JPY underpinned by weak yen sentiment amid speculation that the BOJ might ease monetary policy further by cutting the interest rate on commercial banks' excess reserves parked at the central bank (currently at 0.1%); yen-funded carry trades amid diminished risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 5.06% to 19.89; S&P 500 closed up 0.15% at 2,022.55 overnight) as expectations that the European Central Bank will unveil a large-scale bond-buying program Thursday aimed at reviving Europe's economy, and stronger-than-expected 7.3% on-year increase in China 4Q GDP (versus forecast +7.2%) overshadowed a renewed slide in oil prices. USD/JPY also supported by higher shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.499% versus 0.480% late Friday); broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 93.00 versus 92.58 early Tuesday); demand from Japan importers. But USD sentiment dented by lower-than-expected U.S. January NAHB housing market index of 57 (versus forecast 58). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales. Other data and event focus: 0200 GMT Obama delivers State of the Union address, 0200 GMT China December foreign direct investment, 0430 GMT Japan November all industry index, 1330 GMT U.S. December housing starts (forecast +1.0% to 1.04 million) and building permits (forecast +1.0% to 1.06 million). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 118.87 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 119.32 (Jan. 12 high), then 119.88-119.97 band (Jan. 9 high-Jan. 8 high), 120.68 (Jan. 5 high), 120.74-120.82 band (Jan. 2 high-Dec. 23 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8). Support at 118.23 (hourly chart), then at 117.96 (hourly chart) and 117.58 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 116.92 (Monday's low), then 115.85 (Friday's low), 115.56 (Dec. 16 reaction low), 115.44 (Nov. 17 low) and 114.88 (Nov. 12 low).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by expectations for full-blown quantitative easing measures from the European Central Bank at its meeting Thursday; lower-than-expected Germany December PPI of -1.7% on-year (versus forecast -1.4%); broadly firmer dollar undertone; fears of Greece exit from the eurozone if the anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party win snap elections Sunday and renege on the country's reform program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross. But EUR sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected rise in Germany ZEW indicator of economic sentiment to 48.4 in January from December's 34.9 (versus forecast 40.3). EUR/USD losses also tempered by euro demand on buoyant EUR/JPY cross amid subdued risk aversion and weak yen sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stay suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.1540-1.1530 band (Tuesday's low-Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1459 (Friday's 11-year low), then 1.1375 (Nov. 7, 2003, reaction low) and the psychological 1.1000 line. Resistance at 1.1615 (Tuesday's high), then at 1.1639-1.1649 band (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1792 (Thursday's high), then 1.1846 (Jan. 14 high), 1.1859 (Jan. 13 high), 1.1871 (Jan. 12 high) and 1.1897 (Jan. 7 high).
AUD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined broadly firmer dollar undertone; weak commodity (CRB spot index closed down 2.35% Tuesday at 218.97) and iron-ore prices. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion and weak yen sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turning bearish. Support at 0.8157 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.8130 (Thursday's low), then 0.8066 (Jan. 14 low), 0.8031 (five-and-a-half year low hit Jan. 7), psychological 0.8000 line and 0.7700 (July 13, 2009, reaction low). Resistance at 0.8218 (Tuesday's high), then at 0.8243 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.8256 (Friday's high), then 0.8295 (Thursday's high), 0.8334 (55-day moving average), 0.8375 (Dec. 11 reaction high) and 0.8429 (Dec. 4 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in lower range. Kiwi sentiment dented by lower-than-expected New Zealand 4Q CPI of -0.2% on-quarter (versus forecast -0.1%); weaker 1.0% rise in Fonterra's GDT Price Index at latest GlobalDairyTrade auction versus the 3.6% increase at its previous auction. NZD/USD also weighed by broadly firmer dollar undertone; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by subdued risk aversion; NZD-USD yield differential. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & slow stochastic indicators bearish. Support at 0.7616-0.7606 band (Jan. 5 low-Dec. 9 low); breach would expose downside to 0.7451 (June 1, 2012, swing low), then 0.7367 (Nov. 25, 2011, swing low). Resistance at 0.7685 (hourly chart), then at 0.7746 (hourly chart) and 0.7781 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7808 (Monday's high), then 0.7856 (Friday's high, near 100-day moving average), 0.7890 (Thursday's high) and 0.7910 (Dec. 1 high).
GBP/USD--to range-trade. Undermined by broadly firmer dollar undertone. But GBP/USD downside limited by sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid receding risk aversion and weak yen sentiment; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0930 GMT U.K. unemployment rate in the three months to November, U.K. December jobless claimant count change (forecast -25,000), January Bank of England MPC meeting minutes. Daily chart mixed as stochastics in bearish mode, but MACD turning bullish; five-day moving average meandering sideways below falling 15-day moving average. Support at 1.5055 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 1.5032-1.5026 band (Jan. 8 low-July 15, 2013, low), then psychological 1.5000 line and 1.4812 (July 9, 2013, swing low). Resistance at 1.5199 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5234 (Friday's high), then 1.5266-1.5273 band (Thursday's high-Jan. 6 high), 1.5336 (Jan. 5 high), 1.5584 (Jan. 2 high) and 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high).
USD/CHF--to range-trade. Undermined by franc demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF downside limited by broadly firmer dollar undertone; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of SNB CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 1000 GMT Switzerland January ZEW - Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bearish mode, but stochastics neutral. Support at 0.8682 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8548 (Monday's low), then 0.8452 (hourly chart), 0.8350 (Friday's low), 0.8252 (hourly chart), 0.8043 (hourly chart) and psychological 0.8000 line. Resistance at 0.8837 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9139 (hourly chart, near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from Jan. 14 high of 1.0240 to Thursday's low of 0.7360), then 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement) and psychological 1.0000.
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting five-and-a-half year high 1.2114 Tuesday as markets await 1500 GMT Bank of Canada interest rate decision: BOC is expected to leave its overnight target rate at 1.0%, but many market participants expect the central bank to lower its growth and inflation expectations and inject a more dovish tone into the statement as a result of the uncertainties surrounding the impact on Canada's economy of the plunge in oil prices. USD/CAD supported by broadly firmer dollar undertone; bigger-than-expected 1.4% on-month drop in Canada November manufacturing shipments to C$51.53 billion (versus forecast -0.7%); weak oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $2.30 at $46.39/bbl Tuesday). But USD/CAD gains tempered by improved risk tolerance. Other data: 1330 GMT Canada November wholesale trade. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.2114 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2200 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of decline from March 9, 2009, high of 1.3063 to July 26, 2011, low of 0.9403), then psychological 1.2500 line. Support at 1.2000 (hourly chart), then at 1.1930 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1799-1.1792 band (Thursday's low-Jan. 8 low), then 1.1728 (Jan. 6 low), 1.1596 (Jan. 2 low) and 1.1563-1.1557 band (Dec. 31 low-Dec. 17 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade with bullish bias. Supported by weak yen sentiment; subdued investor risk aversion; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; weak euro sentiment. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 137.64 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 138.20 (10-day exponential moving average), then 138.78-138.88 band (Thursday's high-Jan. 14 high), 140.51 (Jan. 13 high), 140.88 (Jan. 12 high), 141.36 (Jan. 9 high) and 141.71 (Jan. 8 high). Support at 136.45 (Tuesday's low); breach would tilt near-term view negative, exposing downside to 135.16 (Monday's low), then 134.70 (Friday's low), 134.11 (Oct. 16 swing low) and 131.18 (Nov. 7, 2013, low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
January 20, 2015 19:01 ET (00:01 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.