(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. Spot USD/CNY may stabilize Tuesday as the daily charts and the stalemate of the U.S. dollar index late Monday provide little impetus for direction. The People's Bank of China may hence set the daily USD/CNY benchmark rate close to Monday's 6.1311. China will release its producer and consumer price indices for January at 0130 GMT - an upbeat CPI reading would suggest Chinese consumers are spending more, which could buoy investor sentiment. Stocks have barely rallied since the PBOC's cutting of banks' reserve requirement ratios last week. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2313 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 6.2085 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 6.2541 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 6.2768 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2800 (psychological resistance).
USD/TWD--possible uptrend. USD/TWD may rise above the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone and enter the Bollinger uptrend channel at 31.690 as risk appetite faltered in U.S. stock markets overnight. Bullishness for the U.S. dollar has been increasing in the speculative trading community - as seen in the rising price of the 1-month USD/TWD non-deliverable forward contract. Risk aversion in Europe may increase as the standoff between Greece and the Troika could intensify, which might further depress the euro and thereby boost the U.S. dollar. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.500 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 31.310 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.160 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.640 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), then at 31.690 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.890 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW will retain a bullish technical bias for the near term on a Tuesday close above 1,094 - the base of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel. The pair is likely to follow regional lead indicator USD/JPY which appears to have run out of steam for now. The likely catalyst for the U.S. dollar's next move is new development in the Greek debt-renegotiation situation. If the new government refuses to adhere to the conditions of its 2010 financial bailout, the euro is likely to collapse again and propel the safe haven U.S. dollar higher. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,094 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,090 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,087 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1,100 (round-figure trading barrier), then at 1,102 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 1,110 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--uptrend. USD/SGD remains inside the daily Bollinger uptrend channel as U.S. stocks slipped overnight, casting a mild sense of risk aversion in Asia Tuesday. The bullish momentum for USD/SGD has been augmented by rising concerns that Greece is not giving in to pressure to stick to its bailout agreements and may default on debt repayment within weeks. USD/SGD could be on its way to 1.3600 on an intraday basis but may struggle to cross this round-figure trading barrier. Just above 1.3600 is the top of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel providing an extra deterrent to U.S. dollar bulls. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3522 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3500 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3432 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1.3613 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/MYR--possible end of downtrend. USD/MYR may attempt to break past the 3.5630 ceiling of the daily Bollinger downtrend channel as crude oil prices subsided overnight and U.S. stocks fell, triggering mild risk aversion in Asia Tuesday. If USD/MYR ends the day above 3.5650 it may rally higher to the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance mark at 3.5920. Weaker oil prices are a negative for the ringgit as analysts still consider Malaysia's economy captive to its oil exports, despite the country posting a marginal oil export deficit for 2014. Malaysia will release its industrial production data for January at 0401 GMT. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.5340 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 3.5200 (psychological support), before 3.5000 (round figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 3.5630 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 3.5800 (psychological resistance), before 3.5920 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance).
USD/THB--consolidation higher. USD/THB may stabilize or inch slightly higher as most a mild sense of risk aversion lingers after U.S. stocks slipped overnight. In the background, fears that Greece will not compromise in its demands to the Troika will keep the euro supressed and the U.S. dollar index supported by proxy. The daily USD/THB chart indicates that a near-term technical resistance looms at 32.71 - where the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone coincides with the entrance to the daily Bollinger uptrend channel. This chart barrier if broken on a daily closing basis could pave the way for baht weakness versus the greenback in the days ahead. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 32.54 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 32.47 (200-day moving average and base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 32.62 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 32.70 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance and entrance to daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 32.77 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/PHP--consolidation higher. USD/PHP has risen clear of the 200-day moving average resistance line and is likely to climb past the 20-day Bollinger mid resistance at 44.35 as well, thus increasing its bullish momentum. The break of the 200-day moving average line has been a technical catalyst for USD-short covering. Core U.S. dollar strength stemming from higher U.S. government bond yields and persistent euro weakness may propel USD/PHP as high as 44.64 in the days ahead. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 44.24 (200-day moving average), then at 44.06 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 44.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 44.35 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 44.50 (psychological resistance), 44.64 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--possible uptrend. USD/IDR needs to keep its head above 12,640 in order to maintain a bullish chart bias. If it ends Tuesday below and thus out of the daily Bollinger uptrend channel, a consolidation lower toward 12,500 might be in the cards. The main driver for U.S. dollar strength is rising U.S. Treasury yields and a likely fallout of the euro if Greece refuses to comply with its financial bailout obligations. Upon confirmation that the Bollinger uptrend channel is still in effect, USD/IDR could then make its way toward 12,800. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 12,640 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,570 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 12,520 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support). Immediate resistance is at 12,710 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 12,800 (psychological resistance), before 13,000 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/INR--uptrend. USD/INR may rally higher within the daily Bollinger uptrend channel as investor confidence deteriorates as the ruling BJP party appears likely to have lost a local election in Delhi; results of the polls will be announced later today. USD/INR may be targeting the 62.49 Ichimoku Cloud resistance on an intraday basis. In the background, risk aversion in Europe has been boosting the safe haven U.S. dollar, while rising U.S. Treasury yields have also prompted USD-short covering. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 62.00 (round-figure trading barrier and base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 61.75 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 61.50 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 62.24 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 62.49 (daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance zone), before 62.50 (psychological resistance).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@wsj.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 09, 2015 19:49 ET (00:49 GMT)
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