(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by flows to haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 7.29% to 18.55, S&P 500 closed 0.42% lower at 2,046.74 overnight) as deepening standoff between Greece and its creditors heightened fears of a forced exit by the debt-laden nation from Europe's single-currency union, while decline in China's January exports and imports raised concerns about slowing global economy. USD/JPY also weighed by broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.51 versus 94.70 early Monday) on profit-taking of long-USD positions; Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.977% versus 1.938% late Friday); demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data and event focus: 2350 GMT Japan December tertiary industry index, Japan January money stock; 0130 GMT China January CPI (forecast +0.9% on-year), PPI (forecast -3.7% on-year); 1320 GMT Fed's Lacker speaks; 1400 GMT U.S. January NFIB index of small business optimism (forecast 101.0 versus December's 100.0); 1500 GMT U.S. December wholesale inventories (forecast +0.4%), 1500 GMT U.S. December job openings (forecast 4.99 million) and labor turnover survey, 1500 GMT U.S. February IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Support at 118.33 (Monday's low), then at 117.95 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 117.17 (Friday's low), then 117.02 (Thursday's low), 116.87 (Feb. 3 low), 116.64 (Feb. 2 low) and 115.85 (Jan. 16 low). Resistance at 119.23-119.32 band (Friday's high-Jan. 12 high); breach would expose upside to 119.88-119.97 band (Jan. 9 high-Jan. 8 high), then 120.68 (Jan. 5 high), 120.74-120.82 band (Jan. 2 high-Dec. 23 high), 121.00 (Dec. 9 high) and 121.86 (seven-year high hit Dec. 8).
EUR/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by increased fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone after Athens announced plans to cancel about a third of the debt-reduction and economic reform measures that are key conditions for its international bailout. EUR/USD also weighed by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But euro sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected rise in eurozone Sentix investor confidence index to 12.4 in February from January's 0.9 (versus forecast 3.0); larger-than-expected Germany December trade surplus of EUR21.8 billion (versus forecast EUR18.8 billion). Daily chart mixed as MACD in bullish mode, but stochastics neutral. Support at 1.1270-1.1262 band (Monday's low-Jan. 29 low); breach would expose downside to 1.1224 (Jan. 27 low), then 1.1098 (11-year low hit Jan. 26) and psychological 1.1000 line. Resistance at 1.1359 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1486 (Friday's high), then 1.1499 (Thursday's high), 1.1534 (Feb. 3 high), 1.1652 (Jan. 22 high) and 1.1680 (Jan. 21 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate. Undermined by increased investor risk aversion; Aussie sales on soft AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD downside limited by broadly weaker dollar undertone; firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 1.36% Monday at 227.91). Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia January NAB business survey, 0030 GMT Australia 4Q residential property price indexes, eight capital cities. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics rising from oversold levels, five-day moving average meandering sideways below falling 15-day moving average. Support at 0.7745 (Monday's low), then at 0.7732 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7623 (Feb. 3, 5 1/2-year low), then 0.7449 (May 18, 2009, low) and psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7834 (Monday's high), then at 0.7875 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7905 (Jan. 29 high), then 0.8025 (Jan. 28 high), 0.8049 (Jan. 23 high), 0.8135 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in higher range. Supported by broadly weaker dollar undertone; firmer commodity prices; Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains tempered by increased investor risk aversion. Daily chart tilting positive as stochastics rising from oversold levels; MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Resistance at 0.7439-0.7448 band (Monday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7494 (Jan. 28 high), then 0.7526 (Jan. 23 high), 0.7582 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.7663 (55-day moving average). Support at 0.7321 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7288 (Wednesday's low), then 0.7174 (Feb. 3 low), 0.7113 (March 17, 2011, reaction low), psychological 0.7000 line and 0.6944 (Aug. 25, 2010, low).
GBP/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But GBP/USD losses tempered by broadly weaker dollar undertone. Data focus: 0001 GMT U.K. January BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor, 0930 GMT U.K. December industrial production (forecast +0.1% on-month) and manufacturing output (forecast flat on-month), 1500 GMT U.K. January NIESR Monthly GDP estimates. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.5198 (Monday's low), then at 1.5161 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5135 (Wednesday's low), then 1.4986 (Feb. 3 low), 1.4973 (Jan. 26 low), 1.4948 (1 1/2-year low hit Jan. 23) and 1.4812 (July 9, 2013, swing low). Resistance at 1.5267 (Monday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, exposing upside to 1.5352 (Friday's high), then 1.5389 (55-day moving average) and 1.5619 (Dec. 31 reaction high).
USD/CHF--to range-trade. Supported by negative Swiss interest rates; threat of SNB CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF upside limited by broadly weaker dollar undertone. Data focus: 0645 GMT Switzerland January unemployment rate (forecast 3.2%), 0815 GMT Switzerland January CPI (forecast -0.7% on-year). Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode. Resistance at 0.9289 (Friday's high), then at 0.9312 (Thursday's high, near 200-day moving average); breach would expose upside to 0.9347 (Feb. 2 high), then 0.9562 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0240-0.7360 Jan. 14-Jan. 15 low decline; near 55-day and 100-day moving averages) and psychological 1.0000. Support at 0.9193 (Monday's low), then at 0.9165 (Jan. 30 low); breach would expose downside to 0.9040 (Jan. 29 low), then 0.8980 (Jan. 28 low), 0.8933 (Jan. 27 low) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to trade with risks skewed lower. CAD sentiment boosted by higher-than-expected 187,276 Canada January housing starts (versus forecast 178,000). USD/CAD also weighed by broadly weaker dollar undertone; firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.17 at $52.86/bbl Monday). But USD/CAD losses tempered by increased investor risk aversion. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Support at 1.2425 (Monday's low), then at 1.2384 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2351 (Feb. 3 low), then 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low) and 1.2060 (Jan. 21 low). Resistance at 1.2546 (Friday's high), then at 1.2585-1.2593 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2643 (Feb. 3 high), then 1.2772 (Feb. 2 high), 1.2799 (nearly six-year high hit Jan. 30) and psychological 1.3000 line.
EUR/JPY--to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by worries over Greece; increased investor risk aversion; and Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 133.67 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 132.55 (Wednesday's low), then 132.40 (Feb. 3 low), 132.00 (Feb. 2 low), 130.16 (16-month low hit Jan. 26), psychological 130.00 line and 129.26 (Aug. 20, 2013, low). Resistance at 134.98 (Monday's high), then at 135.19 (Friday's high); breach would target 135.35 (Wednesday's high), then 137.31 (Jan. 22 high), 137.64 (Jan. 20 high) and 138.78-138.88 band (Jan. 15 high-Jan. 14 high).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate after hitting two-week low 0.7407 Monday. Daily chart still negative-biased as stochastics bearish; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 0.7459 (Monday's high), then at 0.7491 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7510 (Thursday's high), then 0.7574 (Wednesday's high), 0.7591 (Feb. 3 high), 0.7677 (Jan. 22 high) and 0.7715 (Jan. 21 high). Support at 0.7407-0.7402 (Monday's low -- nearly seven-year low hit Jan. 26); breach would reinstate negative near-term view, exposing downside to 0.7340 (Jan. 2, 2008, low), then 0.7087 (Dec. 3, 2007, low).
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February 09, 2015 18:55 ET (23:55 GMT)
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