(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate with buoyant tone after hitting five-week low 118.33 Thursday. Underpinned by improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.33 versus 96.92 early Thursday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.996% versus 1.920% late Wednesday) after fewer-than-expected 282,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended March 21 (versus forecast 290,000); stronger-than-expected rise in Markit flash U.S. composite PMI to 58.5 in March from 57.2 in February (versus forecast 57.0); while Fed's Lockhart said that a strong U.S. economy meant that summer Fed meetings are "in play" for possible rate increases, and Fed's Bullard said that interest rates should rise soon as the risks for holding them near zero for too long remained significant. USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid reduced investor risk tolerance (VIX fear gauge rose 2.33% to 15.80, S&P 500 closed 0.24% lower at 2,056.15 overnight) as oil prices spiked (Nymex crude settled up $2.22 at $51.43/bbl Thursday) on increased military tension in Yemen; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan February preliminary retail sales; 0130 GMT China February industrial profit; 1230 GMT U.S. 4Q 3rd estimate GDP (forecast +2.4%); 1400 GMT U.S. March University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index (forecast 92.0). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 119.57 (Thursday's high); breach would target 119.83 (Wednesday's high), then 119.98 (Tuesday's high), 120.17 (Monday's low), 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.41 (March 18 high). Support at 118.87 (hourly chart), then at 118.33-118.30 (Thursday's low- Feb. 20 low); breach would reinstate negative near-term view, targeting 118.11 (Feb. 16 low), then 117.17 (Feb. 6 low).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by improved dollar sentiment; euro sales on soft EUR/JPY cross amid reduced investor risk appetite; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; less-than-expected 4.0% annual growth in eurozone February M3 money supply (versus forecast +4.3%); euro sales on retreating EUR/GBP cross; lingering uncertainty over Greece. But Euro sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected rise in Germany GfK consumer confidence to 10.0 in April from 9.7 in March (versus forecast 9.9). EUR/USD losses also tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0830 GMT March EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics in bullish mode, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Support at 1.0856 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0768 (Monday's low), then 1.0650 (March 20 low), 1.0613 (March 19 low), 1.0580 (March 18 low) and 1.0551 (March 17 low). Resistance at 1.0945 (hourly chart), then at 1.1052 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1115 (March 5 high), then 1.1185 (March 4 high) and 1.1218 (March 3 high).
AUD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by improved dollar sentiment; Aussie sales on soft AUD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite; month-end portfolio hedge adjustments. But AUD/USD losses tempered by firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 1.07% Thursday at 219.48); positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.7798 (Thursday's low); breach would target 0.7761 (Monday's low), then 0.7608 (March 19 low), 0.7588 (March 18 low), 0.7570 (March 12 low) and 0.7558 (near-six-year low hit March 11). Resistance at 0.7884 (Thursday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7904 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7937 (Tuesday's high), 0.8025 (Jan. 28 reaction high), 0.8069 (100-day moving average) and 0.8233 (Jan. 21 high).
NZD/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by improved dollar sentiment; Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses tempered by firmer commodity prices; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.7551-0.7546 (Thursday's low-Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7359 (March 19 low), then 0.7273-0.7269 (March 18 low-March 12 low), 0.7182-0.7174 band (March 11 low-Feb. 3 low) and 0.7113 (March 17, 2011 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7663 (Thursday's high); breach would tilt near-term view positive, targeting 0.7691-0.7695 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high), then 0.7709 (Jan. 21 high), 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high) and 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high).
GBP/USD--to trade with bearish bias. Undermined by improved dollar sentiment; sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid waning investor risk appetite. But sterling sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected 0.7% on-month and 5.7% on-year growth in U.K. February retail sales (versus forecast +0.4% on-month, +4.7% on-year); bigger-than-expected rise in U.K. CBI retail sales volume to +18 in March from +1 in February (versus forecast +15). GBP/USD losses also tempered by sterling demand on retreating EUR/GBP cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0700 GMT U.K. March Nationwide house price index, 0930 GMT U.K. February Land Registry house price index. Daily chart mixed as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Thursday; but stochastics neutral, five-day moving average meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average. Support at 1.4805 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4720 (March 20 low), then 1.4685 (March 19 low), 1.4632 (near-five-year low hit March 18), 1.4344 (June 8, 2010 low), 1.4230 (May 20, 2010 swing low) and the psychological 1.4000 line. Resistance at 1.4921 (hourly chart), then at 1.4993 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.5008 (March 19 high), then 1.5147 (March 18 high, near 55-day moving average), 1.5255 (March 6 high) and 1.5397 (March 3 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate in higher range after hitting one-month low 0.9484 Thursday. Underpinned by comment from SNB's Fritz Zurbrugg that Switzerland is facing difficult times and a short period of deflation following January's unwinding of the EUR/CJF currency peg; improved dollar sentiment; Swissie sales on cross trades versus major currencies; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; MACD bearish; but bullish outside-day-range pattern completed Thursday, stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.9658 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.9694 (Tuesday's high), then 0.9812 (Monday's high), 0.9984 (March 19 high), 1.0069 (March 18 high) and 1.0091 (March 17 high). Support at 0.9550 (hourly chart), then at 0.9484 (Thursday's low); breach would reinstate negative near-term view, targeting 0.9466 (55-day moving average), then 0.9444 (Feb. 27 low), 0.9422 (200-day moving average) and 0.9383 (Feb. 23 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate after hitting three-week low 1.2406 Thursday. Undermined by stronger oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $2.22 at $51.43/bbl Thursday). But USD/CAD downside limited by improved dollar sentiment; loonie sales on soft CAD/JPY cross amid receding investor risk appetite; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 1.2531 (Thursday's high), then at 1.2546 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.2615 (Monday's high), then 1.2723 (March 20 high), 1.2757 (March 19 high), 1.2834 (March 18 six-year high), the psychological 1.3000 line and 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high). Support at 1.2406-1.2404 (Thursday's low-March 4 low); breach would expose downside to 1.2383 (Feb. 26 low), then 1.2359-1.2351 band (Feb. 17 low-Feb. 3 low) and 1.2310 (Jan. 22 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by diminished investor risk appetite; weaker EUR/USD undertone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish but stochastics turning neutral. Support at 129.55 (Thursday's low); breach would target 129.29 (Monday's low), then 128.72 (March 20 low), 128.37-128.27 band (March 19 low-March 18 low), 128.11 (March 17 low) and 126.91 (20-month low hit March 13). Resistance at 130.85 (hourly chart), then at 131.10 (Thursday's high); breach would target 131.41 (Wednesday's high), then 131.52 (Tuesday's high), 131.67 (March 18 high), 131.87 (March 10 high) and 132.50 (March 6 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
March 26, 2015 20:01 ET (00:01 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving and advancing; but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 0.7299 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.7225 (Monday's low), then 0.7211 (March 20 low), 0.7147 (March 19 low), 0.7109 (March 17 low) and 0.7090 (March 16 low). Resistance at 0.7384-0.7385 (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would reinstate positive near-term view, targeting 0.7405 (Feb. 23 high, near 55-day moving average), then 0.7427 (Feb. 20 high), 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high) and 0.7459 (Feb. 9 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 26, 2015 20:01 ET (00:01 GMT)
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