Dollar Biased Up VS Most Major FX This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 118.50 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 120.84 (moderate)
        2nd support - 118.33 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 121.20 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 120.02) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at the April 13 reaction high of 120.84. A breach would target the March 20 high of 121.20, and then the March 12 high of 121.67. An extension of the rise would target 122.04--the seven-and-a-half-year high hit March 10--and then the July 9, 2007 high of 123.66. Support is at Thursday's reaction low of 118.50. A breach would target the March 26 reaction low of 118.33, and then the Feb. 16 reaction low of 118.11. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 5 low of 117.02, and then the Feb. 2 reaction low of 116.64. USD/JPY is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as the currency pair stays below 122.04. The weekly chart is mixed as the 15-week moving average is meandering sideways and the weekly slow stochastic measure is neutral. A rise above 122.04 would tilt the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the June 22, 2007 swing high of 124.16; and then to the Dec. 5, 2002 reaction high of 125.70.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.1071 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.1290 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.0919 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1450 (minor)
        EUR/USD (last 1.1190) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays below Friday's high of 1.1290. The five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing, but the slow stochastic measure has turned bearish at overbought levels. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.1071. A breach would expose the downside to the 55-day moving average, now at 1.0919, and then to the April 27 low of 1.0819. An extension of the fall would target the April 21 low of 1.0660, and then the April 16 low of 1.0624, followed by the April 15 low of 1.0571. But a rise above the Friday high of 1.1290, currently near the 100-day moving average, would reinstate the positive near-term view, exposing the upside to the Feb. 19 reaction high of 1.1450, and then to the Feb. 3 reaction high of 1.1534. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 21 reaction high of 1.1674. The medium-term EUR/USD outlook has tilted positive after the spot rate last week breached the March 26 reaction high of 1.1052, and both the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are now positive. The currency pair may rise to the Feb. 3 reaction high of 1.1534, and then to 1.1807-the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the decline from the May 8, 2014 high of 1.3992 to the March 16 low of 1.0457--in the weeks ahead.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7748 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.8075 (moderate)
        2nd support - 0.7708 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.8233 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7821) is likely to trade in a lower range this week after completing a bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern ion the weekly chart Friday. Support may be encountered at the 55-day moving average, now at 0.7748. A breach would target the April 23 low of 0.7708, and then the April 21 reaction low of 0.7680. An extension of the fall would target the 0.7568-0.7550 band, marked by the April 15 low and the April 13 reaction low, and then 0.7530--the near-six-year low hit April 2; followed by the May 18, 2009 low of 0.7449. Resistance is at Wednesday's reaction high of 0.8075. A breach would expose the upside to the Jan. 21 high of 0.8233, and then to the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.8295. An extension of the rise would target the Dec. 11 high of 0.8375 which is currently near the 200-day moving average. The AUD/USD medium-term outlook is tilting positive as both the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are now bullish, while the five-week moving average is rising above the 15-week moving average. The currency pair may rise to the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.8295 in the weeks ahead. But a drop below 0.7530 would turn the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.7485 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7627 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7420 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7744 (moderate)
        NZD/USD (last 0.7522) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the April 15 low of 0.7485. A breach would target the April 13 reaction low of 0.7420, and then the April 1 reaction low of 0.7390. An extension of the fall would target the March 19 low of 0.7369, and then the March 18 reaction low of 0.7273; followed by the 0.7182-0.7174 band, marked by the March 11 low and the Feb. 3 low. Resistance is at Friday's high of 0.7627. A breach would expose the upside to Wednesday's reaction high of 0.7744, and then to the Jan. 19 high of 0.7808 which is currently near the 200-day moving average. An extension of the rise would target the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890; and then the 0.7926-0.7947 band, marked by the Nov. 27 high and the Nov. 21 high. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is positive as the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish. The currency pair may rise to the Jan. 15 reaction high of 0.7890, and then to the Nov. 17 reaction high of 0.7974 in the weeks ahead. But a drop below 0.7390 would temper the positive medium-term view.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5045 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.5396 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.4957 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5496 (moderate)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5156) is likely to trade in a lower range this week after completing a bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Support may be encountered at the 55-day moving average, now at 1.5045. A breach would target the April 23 low of 1.4957, and the April 21 reaction low of 1.4853. An extension of the fall would target the April 16 low of 1.4810, and then the April 15 low of 1.4699, followed by the April 14 low of 1.4601. Resistance is at Friday's high of 1.5396. A breach would target Wednesday's reaction high of 1.5496, and then the Feb. 26 swing high of 1.5552. An extension of the rise would target the Dec. 31 high of 1.5619, and then the 200-day moving average, now at 1.5667; followed by the Dec. 16 reaction high of 1.5785. The GBP/USD medium-term outlook is consolidative as the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish, but the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average. A drop below 1.4563--the near-five-year low hit April 13--would reinstate the negative medium-term outlook, exposing the downside to the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230; and then to the psychological 1.4000 line. But a rise above 1.5552 would tilt the medium-term view positive, exposing the upside to the 200-week moving average, now at 1.5896.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9193 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9446 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9169 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.9504 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9333) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 0.9446. The daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, but the latter is at oversold levels. Support is at the Feb. 9 low of 0.9193. A breach would target the Feb. 6 low of 0.9169, and then 0.9070--the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128. An extension of the fall would target the Jan. 26 low of 0.8762, and then 0.8744, the 50.0% Fibonacci correction level; followed by the Jan. 21 low of 0.8499. But a rise above 0.9446 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9504; and then the April 28 high of 0.9598. An extension of the rise would target the April 23 high of 0.9718, and then the April 13 reaction high of 0.9863. The medium-term USD/CHF outlook is tilting negative as both the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are now bearish, while the five-week moving average is falling below the 15-week moving average. The currency pair may fall to 0.8418--the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128--in the weeks ahead.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.1993 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.2305 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.1942 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 1.2464 (minor)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2174) is likely to trade in a higher range this week after completing a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart Friday. Resistance is at the April 21 reaction high of 1.2305 which is currently near the 100-day moving average. A breach would expose the upside to the 55-day moving average, now at 1.2464, and then to the April 15 high of 1.2569. An extension of the rise would target the April 10 reaction high of 1.2667, and then the March 31 reaction high of 1.2783. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.1993. A breach would target Wednesday's reaction low of 1.1942, and then the Jan. 15 low of 1.1799. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, now at 1.1717. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is negative as the weekly MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining. The currency pair may fall to the 200-day moving average, and then to 1.1464--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the impulsive advance from the July 3, 2014 low of 1.0616 to the March 18 high of 1.2833--in the weeks ahead.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        May 03, 2015 23:08 ET (03:08 GMT)

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        May 03, 2015 23:08 ET (03:08 GMT)

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