(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate. Liquidity thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY underpinned by positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.44 versus 95.25 early Monday), helped by stronger-than-expected 2.1% increase in U.S. March factory orders (versus forecast +1.9%). USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.145% versus 2.117% late Friday), ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY upside limited by buy-yen orders from Japan exporters. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. March trade deficit (forecast $42.5 billion); 1345 GMT U.S. April services PMI; 1400 GMT U.S. April ISM non-manufacturing PMI (forecast 56.3 versus March's 56.5), 1400 GMT U.S. May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. Daily chart mixed as MACD and stochastics bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but bearish harami candlestick pattern completed Monday. Support at 120.00 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 119.38 (Friday's low), then 118.50 (Thursday's low), 118.33-118.30 (March 26 low-Feb. 20 low), 118.11 (Feb. 16 low) and 117.17 (Feb. 6 low). Resistance at 120.28-120.29 (Monday's high-Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 120.84 (April 13 high), then 121.20 (March 20 high) and 121.53 (March 17 high).
EUR/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive USD sentiment; weaker-than-expected eurozone May Sentix Index of 19.6 (versus forecast 19.8); European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on retreating EUR/GBP cross. But euro sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected Markit final eurozone April manufacturing PMI of 52.0 (versus forecast 51.9). EUR/USD losses also tempered by higher German 10-year bund yields (10-year rose 9.0 bps to 0.453% Monday). Data focus: 0900 GMT eurozone March PPI (forecast +0.3% on-month, -2.3% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.1123 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1071 (Thursday's low), then 1.0959 (Wednesday's low), 1.0860 (April 28 low), 1.0819 (April 27 low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0666-1.0660 band (April 22 low-April 21 low). Resistance at 1.1225 (Monday's high); breach would target 1.1268 (100-day moving average), then 1.1290 (Friday's high), 1.1388 (Feb. 25 high), 1.1450 (Feb. 19 high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate after hitting one-week low 0.7800 Monday as markets await 0430 GMT Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision: many expected the RBA to cut its policy rate to 2.00% from 2.25%. AUD/USD also weighed by positive USD sentiment. But AUD/USD losses tempered by stronger iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron rose $1.60 Monday to $57.80/ton). Other data: 0130 GMT Australia March trade balance (forecast A$1.0 billion deficit), 0200 GMT Australia April VFACTS vehicle sales. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Resistance at 0.7851 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7917 (Friday's high), then 0.8022 (Thursday's high), 0.8075 (Wednesday's high), 0.8233-0.8243 band (Jan. 21 high-Jan. 19 high), 0.8295 (Jan. 15 reaction high) and 0.8375 (Dec. 11 high). Support at 0.7800-0.7790 band (Monday's low-April 27 low); breach would target 0.7762 (April 24 low), then 0.7708-0.7701 band (April 23 low-April 22 low), 0.7680 (April 21 reaction low) and 0.7568 (April 15 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias. Undermined by positive USD sentiment; dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance; weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses tempered by NZD-USD interest differential. Data focus: 1200 GMT NZ GlobalDairyTrade auction. "The GDT auction should keep NZD offered," ANZ Bank says. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; although inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 0.7506-0.7503 (Monday's low-Friday's low); breach would target 0.7485 (April 15 low), then 0.7436 (April 14 low), 0.7420 (April 13 reaction low) and 0.7390 (April 1 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7556 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 0.7627 (Friday's high), then 0.7744 (Wednesday's high), 0.7808 (Jan. 19 high, near 200-day moving average), 0.7890 (Jan. 15 reaction high) and 0.7910 (Dec. 2 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting six-day low 1.5088 Monday. GBP/USD undermined by positive USD sentiment; continued impact from Friday's weak U.K. April manufacturing PMI data; uncertainty over outcome of U.K. May 7 general election. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on retreating EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. April CIPS / Markit construction PMI (forecast 57.5 versus March's 57.8). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics falling from overbought levels. Support at 1.5088 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5025 (April 24 low), then 1.4957 (April 23 low) and 1.4853 (April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.5174 (Monday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.5396 (Friday's high), then 1.5490-1.5496 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high), 1.5552 (Feb. 26 swing high), 1.5619 (Dec. 31 high) and 1.5658 (200-day moving average).
USD/CHF--to trade with buoyant tone. Supported by positive USD sentiment; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But Swissie sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected Switzerland April PMI of 47.9 (versus forecast 47.7). USD/CHF gains also tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.9384 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9447 (Thursday's high), then 0.9574 (Wednesday's high), 0.9599 (April 28 high), 0.9718 (April 23 high) and 0.9770 (April 15 high). Support at 0.9305 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.9272 (Friday's near-three-month low), then 0.9193 (Feb. 9 low) and 0.9169 (Feb. 6 reaction low).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by loonie demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CAD losses tempered by positive USD sentiment; softer oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 22 cents at $58.93/bbl Monday). Data focus: 1215 GMT Canada April official international reserves, 1230 GMT Canada March trade balance (forecast C$0.85 billion deficit). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish; but stochastics rising from oversold levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 1.2083 (Monday's low), then at 1.2059 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1993 (Thursday's low), then 1.1942 (Wednesday's three-month low), 1.1930 (Jan. 19 low) and 1.1799 (Jan. 15 low). Resistance at 1.2180 (Monday's high), then at 1.2204 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2268 (April 23 high), then 1.2286 (April 22 high), 1.2305 (April 21 high) and 1.2327 (April 16 high).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker EUR/USD undertone. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by buy-euro orders from Japan importers. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, 5- & 15-day moving averages advancing; but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Support at 133.71 (Monday's low); breach would target 131.29 (Thursday's low), then 130.28 (Wednesday's low), 129.38 (April 28 low), 129.04 (April 27 low), 128.85 (April 24 low) and 127.89 (April 23 low). Resistance 134.71 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 135.29 (Friday's two-month high), then 135.93 (Feb. 23 high), 136.23 (Feb. 17 high) and 136.68 (Feb. 12 reaction high).
EUR/GBP--to trade with risks skewed lower as the cross extends its corrective retreat from the two-month high of 0.7419 hit Friday. Daily chart still positive-biased as five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Monday. Support at 0.7344 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7296 (Friday's low), then 0.7180 (Thursday's low), 0.7128-0.7123 (Wednesday's low-April 28 low), 0.7107 (April 23 low), 0.7090 (March 16 low) and 0.7031 (March 12 low). Resistance at 0.7400 (Monday's high); breach would target 0.7419-0.7427 band (Friday's high-Feb. 20 high, near 100-day moving average), then 0.7443 (Feb. 17 high), 0.7459 (Feb. 9 high) and 0.7591 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 04, 2015 19:44 ET (23:44 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD Buoyant as U.S. Yields Edge Higher; RBA in Focus -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.