EUR Sinking; USD Recovers Poise

 
   By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA 
   A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN 
 

        LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
        Intraday EUR/USD: Tuesday's plunge puts the June 5 higher low at 1.1049 on red alert. Tuesday's push below 1.1293 completed a near three-week bearish rising diagonal triangle pattern on the daily chart, putting the pattern's low at 1.1049 within striking distance during the remainder of this week. Last Thursday's high of the triangle pattern at 1.1440 also suggests a broader double-top pattern at the 1.1468/40 peaks is developing, which would be enhanced on a break below 1.1049. The 1.1255/67 resistance area hampers scope for corrective gains.
        Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.
        Intraday USD/JPY: Meeting the 123.95 upside objective paves the way for further gains to the June 17 lower high at 124.46. Last Thursday's reaction low at 122.47 is part of a double-bottom base that incorporates the June 10 low at 122.46, and a push above 124.46 would open 124.92 and 125.32. Support at 123.73 and 123.38 inhibits scope for corrective weakness.
        Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
        Intraday GBP/USD: The bear wave from last Thursday's 1.5930 high extends, and the 1.5635/50 support area is now the target. The 200-period moving average on the daily chart caps broader-term GBP strength at last week's seven-month high at 1.5930, and loss of Tuesday's low at 1.5710 would expose the 1.5635/50 area. However, only below 1.5635 would concern GBP bulls. Resistance at 1.5775 and 1.5825 would have to be reclaimed in order to make the 1.5930 high accessible again.
        Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
        Intraday USD/CHF: USD bulls are in control, following Tuesday's upward breach of 0.9384. The June 15 reaction low at 0.9151 has been consigned to bear failure status, and a push above Tuesday's high at 0.9388 would prompt further gains to 0.9410 and 0.9460. Weakness will attract support while above 0.9270, and strong backup lies at 0.9205.
        Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/GBP: Tuesday's plunge beneath 0.7126 brings the May 27 reaction low at 0.7057 within striking distance. Tuesday's weakness to a four-week low at 0.7081 extends the powerful bear wave from the June 9 reaction high at 0.7388, and a push below 0.7081 would expose the 0.7057 low, while dragging the Mar. 11 base at 0.7015 into view. Resistance at 0.7210/19 defines upside scope, which has protection at 0.7146 and 0.7161.
        Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
        Intraday EUR/JPY: The impasse between the June peaks at 141.06/141.02 and the June 12 reaction low at 138.00 is set to continue, although the floor of the range is under scrutiny. Tuesday's weakness helped to define two measured downside objectives below 138.00, at 137.61 and 137.21 - the latter is derived from the recent double-top formation at the 140.67/140.63 highs. Resistance at 139.25/139.35 and 139.90 restrict corrective upside risk.
        Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
        Intraday EUR/CHF: The 1.04 level is likely to come under threat again, following earlier unsuccessful attempts at a push lower. The three-week falling resistance line continues to keep a lid on the recoveries, and a break below 1.0404 would spark further weakness 1.0350, while dragging the May 29 higher low at 1.0280 into view. Respite would be achieved on a break above 1.0480, and the resistance line moves down to 1.0520 during Wednesday's session.
        Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
        Intraday AUD/USD: Tuesday's low at 0.7679 is a pivotal support level, which remains vulnerable to renewed pressure. The setback from Wednesday's Asian session high at 0.7760 is threatening to negate Tuesday's lower low, higher close candle, and concerted bear pressure on 0.7679 would likely lead to a push lower to 0.7643 and 0.7623. Such a move would then bring the early June reaction lows at 0.7598 and 0.7599 within striking distance. Recapturing ground above 0.7760 would open the week's high at 0.7798, although last Thursday's four-week high at 0.7849 is out of reach.
        Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
        * The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
        For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
        By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
        It is with disappointment to report the closure of this Technical Analysis column in the not-too-distant future. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
        Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
        Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 24, 2015 02:28 ET (06:28 GMT)