(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate in lower range as markets await 1800 GMT Federal Reserve monetary policy decision: Fed is expected to stay pat on interest rates but market participants will scan accompanying statement and Chairwoman Yellen's comments at her press conference for clues to policy trajectory. USD/JPY undermined by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year slipped 4.9 bps to 2.309% Tuesday); flows to haven yen as Greek fears persist; Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan May provisional trade statistics (forecast Y245 billion deficit). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Support at 123.29 (Tuesday's low), then at 123.10 (Monday's low); breach would target 122.63 (Thursday's low), then 122.46 (June 10 low), 121.44 (May 25 low), 121.06 (55-day moving average), 120.61 (May 22 low), and 120.36 (100-day moving average). Resistance at 123.81-123.82 (Tuesday's high-Friday's high); breach would target 124.19 (Thursday's high), then 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high), 125.68 (June 8 high) and 125.86-125.91 (June 5 high-June 30, 2002 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await FOMC policy decision. EUR/USD undermined by increased worries about Greece as the risk of default grows; weaker-than-expected Germany June ZEW economic sentiment indicator of 31.5 (versus forecast 37.0); euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0900 GMT eurozone May final harmonized CPI (forecast +0.2% on-month, +0.3% on-year). Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.1205 (Tuesday's low), then at 1.1189 (Monday's low); breach would target 1.1151 (Friday's low), then 1.1082 (June 8 low), 1.1060 (100-day moving average), 1.1049 (June 5 low, near 55-day moving average) and 1.0915 (June 2 low). Resistance at 1.1281 (hourly chart), then at 1.1330-1.1335 (Tuesday's high-Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1387 (June 10 high), then 1.1450 (May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await FOMC policy decision. AUD/USD undermined by weaker iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron tumbled $2.40 to $62.10/ton Tuesday); contagion from weak euro. But AUD/USD losses tempered by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia April Westpac-Melbourne Institute indexes of economic activity. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.7719 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.7701 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7675 (Friday's low), then 0.7634 (June 10 low), 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.7779 (Tuesday's high) breach would target 0.7792 (Thursday's high), then 0.7818 (June 3 high), 0.7839 (May 26 high), 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await FOMC policy decision. NZD sentiment dented by 1.3% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and 0.1% drop in average price for whole milk powder to $2,327/mt at latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD also weighed by dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy stance; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; contagion from weak euro. But Kiwi sentiment soothed by larger-than-expected New Zealand 1Q current account surplus of NZ$662 million (versus forecast NZ$190 million). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 0.6971 (Tuesday's low), then at 0.6957 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.6941 (Friday's near-five-year low), then 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low) and 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low). Resistance at 0.7008 (Tuesday's high, matching Monday's high), then at 0.7026 (Friday's high); breach would target 0.7053 (10-day exponential moving average), then 0.7198 (Thursday's high), 0.7230 (June 10 high), 0.7271 (May 28 high), 0.7321 (May 26 high), 0.7394 (May 22 high) and 0.7443 (May 19 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 1.5653 Tuesday as markets await FOMC policy decision. GBP/USD underpinned by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. June Bank of England MPC meeting minutes; 0830 GMT U.K. unemployment rate in the three months to April (forecast 5.5%), average weekly earnings in the three months to April (forecast +2.1% on-year), U.K. jobless claimants change in May (forecast -12,500). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.5653 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 1.5699 (May 21 reaction high), then 1.5745 (May 18 high) and 1.5814 (May 14 swing high). Support at 1.5607 (hourly chart), then at 1.5539 (Tuesday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, exposing downside to 1.5485 (Monday's low), then 1.5465 (Friday's low), 1.5420 (Thursday's low), 1.5366 (June 10 low), 1.5256 (June 9 low, near 55-day moving average) and 1.5219 (June 8 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias as markets await FOMC policy decision. USD/CHF supported by contagion from weak euro on Swissie; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0900 GMT Switzerland June ZEW - Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment. Daily chart mixed as five-day moving average meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average; stochastics turning bullish near oversold levels. Resistance 0.9337 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.9383-0.9391 band (Monday's high-Friday's high), then 0.9406 (Thursday's high), 0.9429 (June 8 high, matching 55-day moving average), 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high), 0.9534 (200-day moving average) and 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high). Support at 0.9267 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.9238 (Friday's low), then 0.9226 (June 10 low), 0.9140 (May 18 low) and 0.9108 (May 15 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate in lower range as markets await FOMC policy decision. USD/CAD undermined by firmer oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 45 cents at $59.97/bbl Tuesday). But USD/CAD losses tempered by contagion from weak euro on loonie. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada April wholesale trade (forecast +0.3% on-month); 1430 GMT EIA weekly petroleum status report. Daily chart tilting negative as MACD bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; stochastics reverting to bearish mode near oversold levels. Support at 1.2280-1.2273 band (Tuesday's-Friday's low); breach would target 1.2249 (Thursday's low), then 1.2199 (June 10 low), 1.2165 (May 20 low), 1.2126 (May 19 low) and 1.1997 (May 18 low). Resistance at 1.2345 (Tuesday's high), then at 1.2359 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2441 (June 9 high), then 1.2472 (June 8 high), 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high), 1.2645 (April 13 high) and 1.2667 (April 19 reaction high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await FOMC policy decision. EUR/JPY undermined by fears that Greece might default on its debts and exit the eurozone. EUR/JPY also weighed by Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish. Support at 138.27 (Tuesday's low), then at 138.11 (Monday's low); breach would target 138.00 (Friday's low), then 137.26 (200-day moving average), 136.11 (June 2 low), 135.14 (June 1 low), 134.76 (May 28 low), 133.78 (May 27 low) and 133.10 (May 26 low). Resistance at 139.30 (hourly chart), then at 140.00 (Tuesday's high); breach would expose upside to 140.66 (June 10 high), then 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline).
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Cross undermined by jitters over possible Greece default and exit from the eurozone. Daily chart negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Tuesday; MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7171 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7140-0.7131 band (June 1 low-May 29 low), then 0.7090 (May 28 low), 0.7051 (May 27 low), 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7250 (Tuesday's high), then at 0.7266 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7316 (Thursday's high), then 0.7364 (June 10 high), 0.7388-0.7394 band (June 9 high-May 8 high), 0.7482 (May 7 swing high), 0.7558 (200-day moving average) and 0.7591 (Feb. 3 reaction high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 16, 2015 19:21 ET (23:21 GMT)
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June 16, 2015 19:21 ET (23:21 GMT)
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Thanks for give comment.