(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to range-trade. Underpinned by higher longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 4.1 bps to 2.412% Thursday) after bigger-than-expected 0.9% on-month increase in U.S. May personal spending for largest increase since August 2009 (versus forecast +0.7%); fewer-than-expected 271,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended June 20 (versus forecast 273,000); stronger-than-expected June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index of -9 (versus forecast -10). USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected Markit U.S. June flash services PMI of 54.8 (versus forecast 56.7). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales; flows to haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.66% to 14.01, S&P 500 closed 0.3% lower at 2,102.31 overnight) as uncertainty over Greece continues--talks between Athens and eurozone finance ministers once again ended without agreement on Thursday, and are scheduled to reopen on Saturday; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 2330 GMT Japan May household spending, May labour force survey, May nation CPI, June Tokyo CPI; 1400 GMT U.S. June final University of Michigan consumers sentiment index. Daily chart mixed as stochastics rising from oversold levels; but MACD in bearish mode. Support at 123.31 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 122.56-122.46 band (Monday's low-June 10 low), then 121.44 (May 25 low, near 55-day moving average), 120.76 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low). Resistance at 123.96 (Thursday's high); breach would target 124.38-124.46 band (Wednesday's high-June 17 high), then 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with buoyant tone. Supported by trimming down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fell (Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.23% to 396.39 Thursday) amid continued uncertainty over Greece; unwinding of euro-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion. But euro sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected Germany July GfK consumer climate index of 10.1 (versus forecast 10.2). EUR/USD upside also limited by European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0800 GMT May monetary developments in the euro area (M3). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Resistance at 1.1228-1.1235 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1347 (Tuesday's high), then 1.1410 (Monday's high), 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high), 1.1466 (May 15 reaction high) and 1.1532 (Feb. 3 reaction high). Support at 1.1153 (Thursday's low), then at 1.1135 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1103 (55-day moving average), then 1.1082 (June 8 low), 1.1049 (June 5 low, near 100-day moving average) and 1.0915 (June 2 low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate with buoyant tone. Supported by Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD upside limited by increased investor risk aversion; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish; but MACD in bullish mode, inside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Resistance at 0.7752 (Thursday's high), then at 0.7771 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 0.7796 (Monday's high), then 0.7809 (June 19 high), 0.7848 (June 18 high), 0.7934 (May 20 high) and 0.8010 (May 19 high). Support at 0.7693 (Thursday's low), then at 0.7680-0.7677 (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7642-0.7634 band (June 17 low-June 10 low), then 0.7601-0.7595 band (June 8 low-June 1 reaction low), 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate. Undermined by comment from Reserve Bank of New Zealand that it will keep investigating the use of macroprudential tools to control the housing market. NZD/USD also weighed by Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; decreased investor risk appetite; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; soft dairy prices. But Kiwi sentiment boosted by surprise New Zealand May trade surplus of NZ$350 million (versus forecast for NZ$100 million deficit). NZD/USD downside also limited by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Resistance at 0.6924 (Thursday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average); breach would target 0.6938 (June 19 high), then 0.6994 (June 18 high), 0.7010 (June 17 high), 0.7026 (June 12 high), 0.7198 (June 11 high) and 0.7230 (June 10 high). Support at 0.6856 (this morning low), then at 0.6837 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 0.6813 (Tuesday's near-five-year low), then 0.6791 (July 1, 2010 reaction low) and 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate with buoyant tone. Supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/USD upside limited by reduced investor risk tolerance; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. May Land Registry house price index. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish; but stochastics falling from overbought levels, inside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Resistance at 1.5770 (Thursday's high), then at 1.5802 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.5831 (Tuesday's high), then 1.5909 (Monday's high), 1.5928 (June 18 high), 1.5944 (Nov. 11 reaction high) and 1.6021 (Nov. 5 high). Support at 1.5674-1.5666 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.5623 (June 17 low), then 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-week high 0.9416 Thursday. Underpinned by comments from Swiss National Bank chairman Thomas Jordan that the Swiss franc remains "significantly overvalued" and the central bank had no easy fix for the problems the strong currency was causing Switzerland. USD/CHF also supported by franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross; negative Swiss interest rates; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains tempered by positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish; five-day moving average rising above 15-day moving average. Resistance at 0.9416 (Thursday's high); breach would target 0.9429 (June 8 high), then 0.9503 (June 5 high), 0.9514 (May 28 high) and 0.9531 (200-day moving average). Support at 0.9319 (Thursday's low), then at 0.9278 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9207 (Tuesday's low), then 0.9152-0.9145 band (Monday's low-June 18 low), 0.9108 (May 15 low), 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128) and 0.8762 (Jan. 26 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bearish bias. Undermined by loonie demand on cross trades versus major currencies as strong U.S. May personal spending data boosted prospects for the Canadian economy. But USD/CAD losses tempered by softer oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 57 cents at $59.70/bbl Thursday); decreased investor risk appetite; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as stochastics in bullish mode, but MACD bearish, inside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Support at 1.2308 (Thursday's low), then at 1.2273 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2215-1.2210 (Monday's low-June 19 low), then 1.2124 (June 18 low), 1.1997 (May 18 low) and 1.1977 (200-day moving average). Resistance at 1.2398 (Thursday's high), then at 1.2422 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2441 (June 9 high), then 1.2472 (June 8 high) and 1.2562-1.2569 band (June 5 high-April 15 high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate after hitting three-week low 137.66 Thursday. Supported by buoyant EUR/USD undertone; demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY upside limited by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics in bearish mode, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 138.87 (Thursday's high), then at 139.18 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 140.01 (Tuesday's high), then 140.63-140.67 (Monday's high-June 18 high), 141.02-141.06 (June 9 high-June 4 high), 141.72 (Jan. 8 high) and 144.13 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 149.72-126.04 Dec. 8-April 14 decline). Support at 137.66 (Thursday's low); breach would target 137.26 (200-day moving average), then 136.11 (June 2 low) and 135.14 (June 1 low).
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining; but stochastics bullish at oversold levels. Support at 0.7096 (Thursday's low), then at 0.7077 (Tuesday's low); breach would target 0.7051 (May 27 low), then 0.7031 (March 12 low), 0.7010-0.7000 band (March 11 seven-year low-psychological line), 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7148 (Thursday's high), then at 0.7179 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7210-0.7213 (Monday's high-June 17 high), then 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2015 19:24 ET (23:24 GMT)
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2015 19:24 ET (23:24 GMT)
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0 Response to "Major FX Consolidating as Greece Uncertainty Drags On -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.