USD Biased Down Vs Most Major FX This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 122.46 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 124.46 (minor)
        2nd support - 121.24 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 124.74 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 122.73) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below the Wednesday high of 124.46. The daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, but the latter is at oversold levels. Support is at the June 10 low of 122.46. A breach would expose the downside to the 55-day moving average, now at 121.24; and then to the May 22 low of 120.61 which is currently near the 100-day moving average. An extension of the fall would target the May 18 low of 119.22. But a rise above 124.46 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the June 9 high of 124.74; and then the 125.86-125.91 band, marked by the June 5 high and the June 30, 2002 high. The medium-term USD/JPY outlook is mixed as the five-week moving average is above the 15-week moving average and advancing, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is falling from overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below 125.86. A rise above 125.86 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, exposing the upside to the psychological 130.00 line; and then to the Jan. 31, 2002 swing high of 135.15.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.1205 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.1440 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.1151 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1468 (moderate)
        EUR/USD (last 1.1372) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above the Tuesday low of 1.1205. The five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but the daily slow stochastic measure is at overbought levels. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 1.1440. A breach would target the May 15 reaction high of 1.1468. An extension of the rise would target the Feb. 3 reaction high of 1.1534, and then the Jan. 21 reaction high of 1.1674. But a drop below 1.1205 would temper the positive near-term outlook, targeting the June 12 reaction low of 1.1151, and then the June 5 low of 1.1049 which is currently near the confluence of 55-day & 100-day moving averages. An extension of the fall would target the June 1 low of 1.0887, and then the May 27 reaction low of 1.0819, followed by the April 21 reaction low of 1.0660. The medium-term EUR/USD outlook is tilting positive as both the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are now bullish, while the five- and 15-week moving averages are turning upward. A breach of the 1.1468 resistance would expose the upside to 1.1807--the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the decline from the May 8, 2014 high of 1.3992 to the March 16 low of 1.0457.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7634 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7848 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7595 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.7931 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7777) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the currency pair stays above the 0.7642-0.7634 band, marked by Wednesday's low and the June 19 low. The daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish, but the latter is near overbought levels. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 0.7848. A breach would target the May 22 high of 0.7931, and then the May 19 high of 0.8010. An extension of the rise would target the May 14 reaction high of 0.8162. But a drop below 0.7634 would temper the positive near-term outlook, targeting the June 1 reaction low of 0.7595, and then the April 13 reaction low of 0.7550. An extension of the fall would target 0.7530--the near-six-year low hit April 2; and then the May 18, 2009 low of 0.7449. The medium-term AUD/USD outlook is consolidative as long as the currency pair stays above 0.7530. The weekly chart is mixed as the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining, but the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bullish. A drop below 0.7530 would tilt the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245 in the weeks ahead.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.6874 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7010 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.6791 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7230 (moderate)
        NZD/USD (last 0.6912) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Wednesday's high of 0.7010. The daily chart is negative-biased as the five- and 15-day moving averages are declining. Support is at Wednesday's low of 0.6874. A breach would expose the downside to the July 1, 2010 reaction low of 0.6791; and then to the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559. But a rise above 0.7010 would temper the negative near-term view, exposing the upside to the June 10 reaction high of 0.7230. An extension of the rise would target the May 28 high of 0.7271, and then the May 26 high of 0.7321, followed by the May 22 reaction high of 0.7394. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. The currency pair may fall to the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559; a breach would open the way down to the psychological 0.6000 line in the weeks ahead.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5833 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.5928 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.5803 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5944 (minor)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5883) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 1.5928. A breach would target the Nov. 11 high of 1.5944; and then the Nov. 5 high of 1.6021. An extension of the rise would target the Oct. 21 reaction high 1.6184 which is near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to the April 13 low of 1.4563. Support is at Friday's low of 1.5833. A breach would target Thursday's low of 1.5803, and then Wednesday's low of 1.5623. An extension of the fall would target Tuesday's low of 1.5539, and then the June 15 low of 1.5485 which is currently near the 200-day moving average. The medium-term GBP/USD outlook has turned positive after the spot rate last week breached resistance at the May 14 swing high 1.5814, while both the five- and 15-week moving averages are now advancing. The currency pair may rise to 1.6187--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to the April 13 low of 1.4563. A rise above 1.6187 would open the way up to the Sept. 19 reaction high of 1.6524 in the weeks ahead.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9145 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9251 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9065 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.9406 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9169) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below the Friday high of 0.9251. The five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but the daily slow stochastic measure is at oversold levels. Support is at Thursday's low of 0.9145. A breach would target the 0.9073-0.9065 band, marked by the May 14 low and the May 7 low which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128. A drop below 0.9065 would expose the downside to the Jan. 26 low of 0.8762. But a rise above 0.9251 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the June 11 high of 0.9406, and then the June 5 high of 0.9503. An extension of the rise would target the May 27 reaction high of 0.9545 which is currently near the 200-day moving average, and then the April 28 high of 0.9598. The medium-term USD/CHF outlook is tilting negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are turning downward, while the weekly MACD and slow stochastic indicators are both bearish. A drop below 0.9065 would expose the downside to 0.8744--the 50.0% Fibonacci correction level of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128--in the weeks ahead.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.2124 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.2359 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.1949 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.2410 (minor)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2260) is likely to consolidate this week as long as the currency pair stays above the June 18 low of 1.2124. The five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but the daily slow stochastic measure is turning bullish near oversold levels. Resistance is at the June 15 reaction high of 1.2359. A breach would target the 100-day moving average, now at 1.2410; and then the June 9 high of 1.2441. An extension of the rise would target the June 1 reaction high of 1.2562, and then the April 10 reaction high of 1.2667, followed by the March 31 reaction high of 1.2783. But a fall below 1.2124 would tilt the near-term outlook negative, targeting the 200-day moving average, now at 1.1949l and then the May 14 reaction low of 1.1916. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bearish, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is neutral. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the March 18 swing high of 1.2834. A breach of the 1.2834 resistance would tilt the medium-term outlook positive, targeting the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; and then the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 21, 2015 22:55 ET (02:55 GMT)

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        (END) Dow Jones Newswires

        June 21, 2015 22:55 ET (02:55 GMT)

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