By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMNLONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Intraday EUR/USD: Recovers well from Monday's Asian session low of 1.1035, although more is needed to re-open Friday's peak at 1.1216. Recapturing ground above 1.1175 would be the signal for a full retracement up to 1.1216, and EUR bulls need to force a break above the June 29 lower high at 1.1279 in order to consign the July 7 low at 1.0916 to bear failure status. Closing the single print support at 1.1071 on this session's Market Profile chart would concern EUR bulls, exposing 1.0994.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Friday's high at 122.88 is back under pressure, and a push higher is on the cards. The strong recovery from last Wednesday's seven-week low at 120.41 targets 123.10 - the midpoint of the broader decline from to 120.41 from the June 5 peak at 125.86. That 123.10 objective is also resistance on the weekly Market Profile charts, and USD bulls have a solid bull hammer candle on the weekly chart to underpin their next push higher. Strong support lies at 121.32, which has protection at the session low of 121.95.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Friday's surge to 1.5549 helps to protect the key projected support level at 1.5289. The recovery from last Wednesday's low at 1.5332 keeps the wave structure of the advance from the June 1 higher low at 1.5172 intact, and the onus is now on GBP bulls to extend the move above 1.5549, opening last week's high at 1.5628. Weakness will attract support while above 1.5415, and only below 1.5390 would concern GBP bulls.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Friday's breakdown to 0.9330 leaves Thursday's high at 0.9515 as a truncated bull failure. That suggests USD bears have licence to renew pressure on the 0.9330 low, while threatening further weakness to the June 29 higher low at 0.9243. The downside threat will remain prevalent while resistance at 0.9450/65 caps the upside, protecting last week's 0.9515/16 highs.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/GBP: The 0.7238 minimum upside objective remains elusive, as resistance at 0.7223 continues to cap. It was Wednesday's powerful push above 0.7166 that generated the minimum upside requirement target at 0.7238, while preserving last week's seven-and-a-half year low at 0.6990 with a higher low at 0.7060. A concerted wave of EUR bull pressure above 0.7238 would then allow scope for further gains to 0.7252 and 0.7276. Solid support lies at 0.7124, which is guarded by 0.7149 and 0.7160.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Friday's seven-day high at 137.28 is likely to come under fresh pressure, especially while support at 135.00 holds. The surge to 137.28 left Thursday's marginal six-week low at 133.30 stranded, and a clean break above 137.28 would give EUR bulls licence for further gains to 138.45. Last week's bullish outside week and bullish engulfing candle underpins the prospect for more gains. It would take a setback below 135.00 and 134.00 to re-expose the 133.30 low.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Resistance at 1.0525 has refused to budge, and an impasse between 1.0426 and 1.0525 is developing on the 60-minute chart. Friday's high at 1.0525 marks a bull trap, which also is a point of contact of a five-week falling resistance line. Furthermore, that resistance line is preventing a wave equality target at 1.0572 from being met. Loss of 1.0426 would expose 1.0410, and should lead to further weakness to the July 6 higher low at 1.0356.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Range.
Intraday AUD/USD: Friday's bearish doji candle leaves last Wednesday's six-year low at 0.7372 vulnerable again. Resistance at 0.7499 on Friday prevented a wave equality target at 0.7544 from being met, and a break below 0.7409 would signal a return to the 0.7372 low. A push into new six-year lows below 0.7372 towards a broader-term objective at 0.7306 should then be expected, because single print resistance at 0.7552 on the weekly Market Profile charts remains unclosed. Resistance at 0.7484 and 0.7499 would have to be broken in order to question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Dow Jones will no longer be offering in-house Technical Analysis to subscribers after Friday 24 July, when this column will be discontinued. I would like to thank everyone for their valued support over the past six years.
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2015 02:36 ET (06:36 GMT)
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