(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to trade in lower range. Liquidity thin later in global day as financial markets in U.S. are shut for Independence Day holiday. USD/JPY undermined by weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.09 versus 96.32 early Thursday) after fewer-than-expected 223,000 increase in U.S. June non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +233,000), flat on-month growth in U.S. June average hourly earnings (versus forecast +0.2%), although the unemployment rate fell more than expected to 5.3% in June from 5.5% in May (versus forecast 5.4%). USD/JPY also weighed by more-than-expected 281,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended June 27 (versus forecast 270,000); larger-than-expected 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. May factory orders (versus forecast -0.5%); lower U.S. Treasury yields (2-year fell 5.5 bps to 0.632% Thursday); Japan exporter sales; flows to haven yen amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 4.35% to 16.79; S&P 500 closed down 0.03% at 2,076.78 overnight) as caution prevails ahead of Sunday's Greek referendum on whether to accept the terms of bailout creditors' latest offer. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0135 GMT Nikkei Japan June services PMI; 0145 GMT HSBC China June services PMI. Daily chart mixed as MACD in bearish mode, bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern completed Thursday; but stochastics neutral. Support at 122.94 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 122.33 (Wednesday's low), then 121.92 (Tuesday's low, near 55-day moving average), 121.44 (May 25 low), 120.94 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low). Resistance at 123.72 (Thursday's high); breach would target 123.99 (June 26 high), then 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high).
EUR/USD--to consolidate. Underpinned by weaker dollar sentiment; euro demand on buoyant EUR/SEK cross after the Riksbank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 10 bps to minus 0.35%; scaling down of short-euro hedges as European stocks fell (Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.42% to 385.46 Thursday); unwinding of euro-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk appetite. But euro sentiment dented by flat on-month eurozone May PPI (versus forecast +0.1% on-month). EUR/USD upside also limited by uncertainty over the situation in Greece ahead of Sunday's Greek referendum on whether to accept the terms of bailout creditors' latest offer; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program--ECB on Thursday announced it would expand the scope of its asset purchase program to include bonds of state-owned infrastructure companies, fueling speculation it is moving closer to outright purchases of corporate bonds and could ramp up its asset purchases if the Greece crisis escalates further; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0755 GMT Markit final Germany June services PMI (forecast 54.2); 0800 GMT Markit final eurozone June composite PMI (forecast 54.1); 0900 GMT eurozone May retail sales (forecast +0.1% on-month, +2.3% on-year). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 1.1122 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1171 (Wednesday's high), then 1.1243 (Tuesday's high), 1.1278 (Monday's high), 1.1347 (June 23 high), 1.1410 (June 22 high) and 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high). Support at 1.1030 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0950 (Monday's low), then 1.0887 (June 1 low), 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low).
AUD/USD--to consolidate. Undermined by soft iron ore prices (benchmark 62% grade iron fell $3.10 Thursday to two-month low $55.80/ton); wider-than-expected Australia May trade deficit of A$2.751 billion (versus forecast A$2.2 billion); diminished investor risk appetite. But AUD/USD downside limited by weaker dollar sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia May retail sales (forecast +0.5% on-month); 0200 GMT Australia June VFACTS vehicle sales. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 0.7656 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.7738 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7752 (June 25 high), 0.7771 (June 24 high), 0.7796 (June 22 high), 0.7809 (June 19 high), 0.7848 (June 18 high) and 0.7934 (May 20 high). Support at 0.7587-0.7584 (Thursday's low-Monday's low); breach would target 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), then 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low).
NZD/USD--to consolidate after hitting five-year low 0.6659 Thursday. Undermined by soft dairy prices; diminished investor risk appetite; divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD downside limited by weaker dollar sentiment; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Resistance at 0.6744 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.6810 (Wednesday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average), then 0.6854 (Tuesday's high), 0.6880 (Monday's high), 0.6909 (June 26 high) and 0.6924 (June 25 high). Support at 0.6659 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low).
GBP/USD--to consolidate after hitting two-week low 1.5560 Thursday. Sterling sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected U.K. June CIPS / Markit construction PMI of 58.1 (versus forecast 56.5). GBP/USD also supported by weaker dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD upside limited by sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross; diminished investor risk appetite; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Data focus: 0830 GMT U.K. June CIPS / Markit services PMI (forecast 57.3). Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 1.5638 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5732 (Wednesday's high), then 1.5774 (Tuesday's high), 1.5787 (Monday's high), 1.5802 (June 24 high), and 1.5831 (June 23 high). Support at 1.5560 (Thursday's low); breach would target 1.5539 (June 16 low), then 1.5485 (June 15 low), 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low).
USD/CHF--to trade in lower range. Undermined by weaker dollar sentiment; franc demand on retreating EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses tempered by threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Support at 0.9413 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9337 (Wednesday's low), then 0.9241 (Monday's low), 0.9207 (June 23 low), 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low) and 0.9108 (May 15 low). Resistance at 0.9506-0.9514 band (Thursday's high-May 28 high); breach would target 0.9529 (200-day moving average), then 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high).
USD/CAD--to trade in lower range after hitting near-three-month high 1.2633 Thursday. Loonie sentiment boosted by rise in Canada's RBC manufacturing PMI to 51.3 in June from 49.8 in May. USD/CAD also weighed by weaker dollar sentiment. But USD/CAD losses tempered by weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit two-month low $56.40/bbl on Globex this morning); diminished investor risk appetite; positions adjustment ahead of weekend. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels. Support at 1.2471 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2358 (Tuesday's low), then 1.2302 (Monday's low), 1.2273 (June 24 low), 1.2215-1.2210 (June 22 low-June 19 low), 1.2124 (June 18 low), 1.2012 (200-day moving average) and 1.1997 (May 18 low). Resistance at 1.2633 (Thursday's high); breach would target 1.2645 (April 13 high), then 1.2667 (April 10 reaction high), 1.2783 (March 31 reaction high) and 1.2833 (March 18 swing high).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate ahead of Sunday's Greek referendum. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Resistance at 136.90 (Thursday's high), then at 137.39 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 137.74 (Tuesday's high), then 138.07 (Monday's high), 138.67 (June 26 high), 138.87 (June 25 high) and 139.18 (June 24 high). Support at 136.00 (Thursday's low), then at 135.84 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.68 (Monday's low), then 133.53 (100-day moving average), 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2015 19:35 ET (23:35 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with buoyant tone. Supported by profit-taking on short EUR/GBP positions ahead of Sunday's Greek referendum on whether to accept the terms of bailout creditors' latest offer. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics in bullish mode, inside-day-range pattern completed Thursday. Resistance at 0.7118-0.7128 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high), then at 0.7146 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7168 (Monday's high), then 0.7179 (June 23 high), 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high). Support at 0.7064-0.7058 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6981 (Monday's seven-and-a-half year low), then 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2015 19:35 ET (23:35 GMT)
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