USD Biased Up VS Most Major Currencies This Week -- Charting Forex

 
   By Jerry Tan 
 

        The following is a technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
        USD/JPY
        1st support - 120.98 (minor)
        1st resistance - 123.72 (minor)
        2nd support - 120.61 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 123.98 (minor)
        USD/JPY (last 122.56) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 123.72. The daily chart is negative-biased as the five- and 15-day moving averages are declining. Support may be encountered at the 100-day moving average, now at 120.98. A breach would target the May 22 low of 120.61. An extension of the fall would target the May 18 low of 119.22, and then the May 14 reaction low of 118.86. But a rise above 123.72 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting the June 26 high of 123.98, and then the 124.38-124.46 band, marked by the June 24 high and the June 17 high. An extension of the rise would target the June 9 high of 124.74; and then the 125.86-125.91 band, defined by the June 5 high and the June 30, 2002 high. The medium-term USD/JPY outlook is mixed as the five-week moving average is positioned above the advancing 15-week moving average, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below 125.86. A rise above 125.86 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the psychological 130.00 line; and then to the Jan. 31, 2002 swing high of 135.15.
        EUR/USD
        1st support - 1.0950 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 1.1122 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.1887 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.1171 (minor)
        EUR/USD (last 1.1045) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 1.1122. The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at the June 29 low of 1.0950. A breach would target the June 1 low of 1.0887, and then the May 27 reaction low of 1.0819. An extension of the fall would target the April 21 reaction low of 1.0660, and then the April 13 reaction low of 1.0519. But a rise above 1.1122 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting Wednesday's high of 1.1171, and then the June 29 high of 1.1278. An extension of the rise would target the June 22 high of 1.1410, and then the June 18 reaction high of 1.1440, followed by the May 15 reaction high of 1.1468. The medium-term EUR/USD outlook is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bullish, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is bearish near overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays above 1.0819. A drop below 1.0819 would turn the medium-term outlook negative, exposing the downside to the 12-year low of 1.0457 hit March 16, and then to the psychological 1.0000 line; followed by the Sept. 17, 2002 reaction low of 0.9601.
        AUD/USD
        1st support - 0.7449 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.7648 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.7240 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.7738 (minor)
        AUD/USD (last 0.7493) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Friday's high of 0.7648. The five-day moving average is below the 15-day moving average and declining; meanwhile, the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, but the latter is at oversold levels. Support is at the May 18, 2009 low of 0.7449 which was tested this morning. A sustained breach would expose the downside to the May 1, 2009 low of 0.7240, and then to the psychological 0.7000 line. But a rise above 0.7648 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting Wednesday's high of 0.7738, and then the June 25 high of 0.7752. An extension of the rise would target the June 24 high of 0.7771, and then the June 22 high of 0.7796, followed by the June 18 reaction high of 0.7848. The medium-term AUD/USD outlook has turned negative after the spot rate last week fell below the April 2 low of 0.7530, while the five-week moving average is below the 15-week moving average and declining. The currency pair may decline to the psychological 0.7000 line; and then to the Feb. 2, 2009 reaction low of 0.6245 in the weeks ahead.
        NZD/USD
        1st support - 0.6559 (moderate)
        1st resistance - 0.6744 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.6192 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 0.6810 (minor)
        NZD/USD (last 0.6678) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Thursday's high of 0.6744. The five- and 15-day moving averages are declining; meanwhile, the daily MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, but the latter is at oversold levels. Support is at the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559. A breach would expose the downside to the July 13, 2009 low of 0.6192; and then to the June 8, 2009 low of 0.6148. But a rise above 0.6744 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting Wednesday's high of 0.6810, and then the June 29 high of 0.6880. An extension of the rise would target the June 25 reaction high of 0.6924, and then the June 17 high of 0.7010, followed by the June 10 reaction high of 0.7230. The medium-term NZD/USD outlook is negative as the five- and 15-week moving averages are declining. A drop below the May 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6559 would open the way down to the psychological 0.6000 line in the weeks ahead.
        GBP/USD
        1st support - 1.5485 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.5643 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.5445 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.5732 (minor)
        GBP/USD (last 1.5564) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the downside this week as long as the currency pair stays below Friday's high of 1.5643. The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and declining. Support is at the June 15 low of 1.5485 which is currently near the 55-day moving average. A breach would target the 200-day moving average, now at 1.5445, and then the June 11 low of 1.5420. An extension of the fall would target the June 9 low of 1.5256 which is currently near the 100-day moving average. But a rise above 1.5643 would temper the negative near-term view, targeting Wednesday's high of 1.5732, and then the June 29 high of 1.5787. An extension of the rise would target the June 24 high of 1.5802, and then the 1.5909-1.5928 band, marked by the June 22 high and the June 18 high. The positive medium-term GBP/USD outlook is tempered as the five- and 15-week moving averages are advancing, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is turning bearish at overbought levels. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the June 18 high of 1.5928. A rise above 1.5928 would reinstate the positive medium-term outlook, exposing the upside to 1.6187--the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the July 15, 2014 high of 1.7191 to the April 13 low of 1.4563.
        USD/CHF
        1st support - 0.9241 (minor)
        1st resistance - 0.9506 (minor)
        2nd support - 0.9145 (moderate)
        2nd resistance - 0.9529 (minor)
        USD/CHF (last 0.9428) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 0.9506. A breach would target the 200-day moving average, now at 0.9529, and then the May 27 reaction high of 0.9545. An extension of the rise would target the April 28 high of 0.9598, and then the April 23 reaction high of 0.9718. Support is at the June 29 reaction low of 0.9241. A breach would target the 0.9152-0.9145 band, marked by the June 22 low and the June 18 low. An extension of the fall would target the 0.9073-0.9065 band, defined by the May 14 low and the May 7 low which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the advance from the Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to the March 12 high of 1.0128. The medium-term USD/CHF outlook is mixed as the weekly slow stochastic measure is bullish near oversold levels, but the weekly MACD indicator is bearish. The currency pair may consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays below the May 27 reaction high of 0.9545. A rise above 0.9545 would tilt the medium-term outlook positive, exposing the upside to the April 13 reaction high of 0.9863, and then to the March 12 swing high of 1.0128.
        USD/CAD
        1st support - 1.2534 (minor)
        1st resistance - 1.2633 (minor)
        2nd support - 1.2471 (minor)
        2nd resistance - 1.2667 (minor)
        USD/CAD (last 1.2605) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 1.2633. A breach would target the April 10 reaction high of 1.2667, and then the March 31 reaction high of 1.2783. An extension of the rise would target the March 18 swing high of 1.2834. Support is at Friday's low of 1.2534. A breach would target Wednesday's low of 1.2471, and then Tuesday's low of 1.2358. An extension of the fall would target the June 29 low of 1.2302, and then the June 24 low of 1.2273 which is currently near the 55-day moving average. The medium-term USD/CAD outlook is tilting positive after the spot rate last week rose above the June 1 reaction high of 1.2562, while the five-week moving average is above the 15-week moving average and advancing. The currency pair may rise to the March 18 swing high of 1.2834. A breach would target the March 9, 2009 swing high of 1.3063; and then the May 18, 2004 reaction high of 1.4001 in the weeks ahead.
        Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
        (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

        July 05, 2015 22:37 ET (02:37 GMT)

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        July 05, 2015 22:37 ET (02:37 GMT)

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