(Ranges are calculated using recent highs and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis--Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/CNY--consolidation. Consolidation is likely for USD/CNY as the pair continues to tread water within a range of 6.2042-6.2092 demarcated by the respective entrances of the Bollinger downtrend and uptrend channels. The yuan has been relatively stable even as China unleashes yet more interventionary measures to stem its stock market rout. Hopes for the IMF's inclusion of the yuan in its basket of reserve currencies later this year may be helping to keep the currency attractive to investors. The Shanghai Composite Index could attempt to rally out of bearish territory after China enounced that its top stock brokerages would together buy around $19 billion worth of equities to prop up the market. Additionally, new IPO launches have been suspended; they were partly blamed for triggering an outflow from stocks as investors liquidated positions to subscribe for the IPOs. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/CNY is at 6.2042 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 6.2033 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 6.2016 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 6.2000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 6.2067 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 6.2092 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 6.2117 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/TWD--consolidation. A fresh bout of risk aversion - triggered by early results of the Greek referendum - is rallying the safe haven U.S. dollar. The broad rise of the greenback could lift USD/TWD clear of the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone and into the Bollinger uptrend channel that begins at 31.240. If the pair closes Monday above this mark, more U.S. dollar strength is likely in the near term. Risk appetite is deteriorating after the early results of Greece's Sunday vote showed that most do not support further austerity measures in exchange for financial aid. U.S. stock futures slumped 1.5% in reaction and the euro fell, propelling the U.S. dollar index higher. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 31.100 (daily Ichimoku Cloud support), then at 31.040 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 31.000 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 31.140 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), then at 31.240 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 31.330 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/KRW--uptrend. USD/KRW opens higher Monday, affirming the bullish Bollinger uptrend channel, as markets reacted to the Greek vote against further EU-imposed austerity measures. The surprise result has hurt investor sentiment and lifted safe haven assets such as the U.S. dollar. Stock markets in Asia are already in the red, with South Korea's Kospi down 1.1% and Japan's Nikkei down 1.4%. USD/KRW is now more likely to rise past the 1,130 round-figure trading barrier and toward the 1,132 top of the weekly Bollinger uptrend channel. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 1,122 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,120 (round-figure trading barrier), before 1,115 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 1,130 (round-figure trading barrier and top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1,132 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1,140 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/SGD--possible uptrend. USD/SGD rallied as the euro dropped on a surprise "no" result from the Greek referendum Sunday, and may soon pop out of the Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone that has been holding the pair back for the past two weeks. If the pair closes Monday above 1.3522 it would be above the Cloud and also inside the Bollinger uptrend channel that could steer the pair toward 1.3600 in the near term. The greenback is broadly higher as investors fear the increasing likelihood of a Greek exit from the eurozone - which could tank the euro and thereby boost the U.S. dollar index even higher. Dow Jones technical analysis shows immediate support is at 1.3491 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 1.3436 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 1.3400 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is at 1.3522 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance), then at 1.3545 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 1.3600 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/MYR--uptrend. USD/MYR has hit a new 10-year peak of 3.8030 as external and internal factors contribute to a weaker Malaysia ringgit. The pair is inside the Bollinger uptrend channel, suggesting more U.S. dollar strength ahead. Stoploss orders to cover short-USD positions may soon be triggered now that USD/MYR has breached the 3.8000 round-figure trading barrier - also the level at which the ringgit was pegged to the U.S. dollar in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. The peg was lifted in July 2005 when China revalued its yuan. The Sunday Greek referendum has led to a euro slump which in turn has boosted the U.S. dollar across the board. Investor confidence in Malaysia has been shaken by fears of political instability ahead after the WSJ reports investigations into state-run investment firm 1MDB reveal money was transferred into Prime Minister Najib's personal bank accounts from the fund. Najib has said the allegations were an attempt by his political opponents to tarnish his reputation. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 3.7800 (psychological support), then at 3.7740 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 3.7540 (20-day Bollinger mid support). Immediate resistance is at 3.7940 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 3.8000 (round-figure trading barrier), before 3.8200 (psychological resistance).
USD/THB--possible uptrend. USD/THB is gaining technical momentum as it rises back into the daily Bollinger uptrend channel following a euro slump caused by the Greek vote against further eurozone austerity measures. If USD/THB closes Monday above 33.78 it would be inside the bullish channel and more likely to keep rising toward the 34.00 round-figure trading barrier. The U.S. dollar is higher across the board as traders react to the surprise Greek vote result - which makes a Greek exit from the eurozone more likely. The resulting slump of the euro has boosted the U.S. dollar index and triggered USD-short covering elsewhere. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 33.78 (base of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 33.71 (20-day Bollinger mid support), before 33.64 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 33.85 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel), before 34.00 (round-figure trading barrier).
USD/PHP--rebound into uptrend. USD/PHP is likely to rebound from its Friday selloff and may re-enter the Bollinger uptrend channel at 45.17. The U.S. dollar is broadly stronger as markets dumped the euro following a surprise "no" vote from Greece on further bailout measures from the eurozone. Risk-taking sentiment has dimmed because of uncertainty as to whether the eurozone will stay intact if Greece leaves, and has thus sent investors to the safe haven of the U.S. dollar. USD/PHP could be headed much higher in the near term if it closes Monday above 45.17 and inside the Bollinger uptrend channel. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 45.08 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 45.00 (round-figure trading barrier), before 44.99 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is likely at 45.17 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 45.20 (psychological resistance), before 45.26 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel).
USD/IDR--possible uptrend. USD/IDR can be expected to rally past 13,350 and thus trigger the Bollinger uptrend channel - which could lead the pair higher in the days ahead. Euro weakness and thereby U.S. dollar strength has swept across Asia, after Greece surprisingly voted against further bailout aid from the eurozone - increasing the likelihood of Greece leaving the eurozone and possibly motivating other peripheral nations to follow. The USD/IDR Bollinger uptrend channel if confirmed by the pair closing above 13,350 Monday would bring into view the 13,500 psychological resistance. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support for spot USD/IDR is at 13,320 (20-day Bollinger mid support), then at 13,300 (daily Bollinger downtrend channel), before 13,270 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel). Immediate resistance is at 13,350 (daily Bollinger uptrend channel), then at 13,370 (top of daily Bollinger uptrend channel and June's 17-year high), then at 13,400 (top of weekly Bollinger uptrend channel), before 13,500 (psychological resistance).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 05, 2015 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT)
USD/INR--downtrend. USD/INR could lose its bearish technical bias if U.S. dollar strength persists when India's markets open. The U.S. dollar has rallied across the board following the surprise "no" vote from Greece on accepting further bailout measures from the eurozone - which makes a Greek exit from the currency union more likely. But the greenback's rally could lose steam by the time India starts trading. If USD/INR ends Monday above 63.42 it would be out of the Bollinger downtrend channel. The pair could then gravitate higher within the daily Ichimoku Cloud consolidation zone that spans 63.15-63.74. Dow Jones technical analysis suggests immediate support is at 63.19 (base of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.15 (base of daily Ichimoku Cloud support), before 63.00 (round-figure trading barrier). Immediate resistance is likely at 63.42 (top of daily Bollinger downtrend channel), then at 63.68 (20-day Bollinger mid resistance), before 63.74 (top of daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance).
Write to Ewen Chew at ewen.chew@dowjones.com
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 05, 2015 21:18 ET (01:18 GMT)
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