(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate after hitting near-one-month high 124.23 Friday. Liquidity thin in Asia on Monday as financial markets in Japan are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.96 versus 97.66 early Friday) on larger-than-expected 9.8% on-month increase in U.S. June housing starts (versus forecast +7.1%), while +0.3% U.S. June CPI (matching forecast) bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin tightening policy this year. USD/JPY also supported by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy; reduced safe-haven appeal of yen as investor risk aversion recedes (VIX fear gauge eased 1.32% to 11.95; S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 2,126.64 Friday) amid easing concerns about Greece and signs of stabilization in China stock markets. But USD sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected U.S. July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 93.3 (versus forecast 95.5). USD/JPY upside also limited by profit-taking on short-JPY positions; buy-yen orders from Japan exporters. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 124.23 (Friday's high); breach would target 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), then 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high). Support at 123.89 (Friday's low); breach would target 123.71 (Thursday's low), then 123.23 (Wednesday's low), 122.91 (Tuesday's low), 122.00 (July 13 low), 121.55 (July 10 low) and 120.44-120.38 band (July 9 low-July 8 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-two-month low 1.0826 Friday. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program; euro sales on soft EUR/GBP cross; euro-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk aversion. But euro sentiment soothed as Germany's Parliament on Friday backed rescue plan for Greece; eurozone officials finalized plans to provide Greece with EUR7 billion bridge financing to keep the debt-laden nation from defaulting on an ECB loan on Monday. Data focus: 0600 GMT Germany June PPI; 0800 GMT eurozone May balance of payments; 1000 GMT Germany July Bundesbank monthly report. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.0826-1.0819 band (Friday's low-May 27 reaction low); breach would target 1.0784 (April 24 low), then 1.0666-1.0660 band (April 22 low-April 21 low). Resistance at 1.0906 (Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 1.0962 (Thursday's high), then 1.1034 (Wednesday's high), 1.1081 (Tuesday's high), 1.1196 (July 13 high), 1.1215 (July 10 high) and 1.1243 (June 30 high).
AUD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; soft commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 0.47% at 214.54 Friday); Aussie sales on retreating AUD/NZD cross. But AUD/USD losses tempered by diminished investor risk aversion. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; although inside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at 0.7365 (Friday's low), then at 0.7347 (Thursday's six-year low); breach would expose downside to 0.7240 (May 1, 2009 low), then the psychological 0.7000 line. Resistance at 0.7418 (Friday's high), then at 0.7437 (Thursday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7488 (Wednesday's high), then 0.7496-0.7501 (July 10 high-July 7 high), 0.7533 (July 6 high), 0.7648-0.7656 band (July 3 high-July 2 high), 0.7738 (July 1 high) and 0.7752 (June 25 high).
NZD/USD--to trade in lower range. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; soft dairy prices; dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy stance. But NZD/USD losses tempered by diminished investor risk aversion; Kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; although inside-day-range pattern completed Friday. Support at 0.6502-0.6496 band (Friday's low-Thursday's five-year low); breach would expose downside with no significant support until 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low), then 0.6148 (June 8, 2009 low) and the psychological 0.6000. Resistance at 0.6556 (Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.6601 (Thursday's high), then 0.6723 (Wednesday's high), 0.6742-0.6752 band (Tuesday's high-July 13 high), 0.6771 (July 10 high), 0.6810 (July 1 high) and 0.6854 (June 30 high).
GBP/USD--to range-trade. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD downside limited by hawkish Bank of England monetary policy stance; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; diminished investor risk aversion. Daily chart mixed as negative MACD histogram bars contracting, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing; but stochastics neutral. Resistance at 1.5671-1.5674 (Friday's high-Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5732 (July 1 high), then 1.5787 (June 29 high) and 1.5802 (June 24 high). Support at 1.5554-1.5449 (Friday's low-Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5361 (July 10 low), then 1.5341 (July 9 low), 1.5328 (July 8 low), 1.5280 (100-day moving average), 1.5256 (June 9 low) and 1.5219 (June 8 low).
USD/CHF--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting near-three-month high 0.9626 Friday. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. But USD/CHF gains tempered by franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 0.9626 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high), then 0.9863 (April 13 reaction high). Support at 0.9551 (Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 0.9510 (Thursday's low), then 0.9436 (Wednesday's low), 0.9399 (Tuesday's low), 0.9365 (July 13 low), 0.9329 (July 10 low), 0.9241 (June 29 low) and 0.9207 (June 23 low).
USD/CAD--to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting six-year high 1.3007 Friday. Underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; soft oil prices (Nymex crude hit three-month low $50.14/bbl Friday, last down eight cents at $50.81/bbl on Globex); dovish Bank of Canada monetary policy stance. But loonie sentiment soothed by higher-than-expected Canada June core CPI of +2.3% on-year (versus forecast +2.2%). USD/CAD gains also tempered by diminished investor risk aversion. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada May wholesale trade. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five- and 15-day moving averages advancing. Resistance at 1.3007 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.3063 (March 9, 2009 swing high), then 1.3166 (Sept. 1, 2004 high). Support at 1.2944 (Friday's low); breach would temper positive near-term view, targeting 1.2901 (Thursday's low), then 1.2719-1.2715 (Wednesday's low-Tuesday's low), 1.2668 (July 13 low), 1.2652 (July 9 low), 1.2640 (July 7 low), 1.2560 (July 6 low) and 1.2534 (July 3 low).
EUR/JPY--to trade in lower range, undermined by soft EUR/USD undertone. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish. Support at 134.27 (Friday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.72 (July 10 low), then 133.26 (July 9 low), 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 135.27 (Friday's high); breach would temper negative near-term view, exposing upside to 135.87 (Thursday's high), then 136.37 (Wednesday's high), 138.07 (June 29 high), 139.15 (June 24 high) and psychological 140.00 line.
EUR/GBP--to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting seven-and-a-half year low 0.6930 Friday. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.6930 (Friday's low); breach would target 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low), then 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.6992 (Friday's high), breach would temper negative near-term view, targeting 0.7011 (Thursday's high), then 0.7068 (Wednesday's high), 0.7137 (Tuesday's high), 0.7202 (July 13 high) and 0.7223 (July 10 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 19, 2015 19:46 ET (23:46 GMT)
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0 Response to "USD Buoyant as Fed Rate Expectations Prevail -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.