(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)
USD/JPY--to consolidate in higher range as markets await 1230 GMT U.S. June non-farm payrolls (forecast +233,000), unemployment rate (forecast 5.4%), average hourly earnings (forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.32 versus 95.60 early Wednesday) after stronger-than-expected U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI of 53.5 (versus forecast 53.2); larger-than-expected 0.8% on-month increase in U.S. May construction spending (versus forecast +0.5%); ADP employment report showing more-than-expected 237,000 increase in U.S. private sector jobs in June (versus forecast +220,000). USD/JPY also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year rose 9.4 bps to 2.427% Wednesday); reduced safe-haven appeal of yen amid improved global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 11.74% to 16.09; S&P 500 closed up 0.69% at 2,077.42 overnight) as a less pessimistic view of the situation in Greece emerged on news of a fresh bailout proposal from Greek PM Tsipras conceding to almost all of the demands made by creditors, even though the proposal was subsequently dismissed by European officials as insufficient to revive negotiations. But USD/JPY gains tempered by Japan exporter sales; caution ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Other data: 2350 GMT Japan June monetary base; 1230 GMT U.S. jobless claims in week ended June 27 (forecast 270,000); 1345 GMT U.S. June ISM-NY business index; 1400 GMT U.S. May factory orders (forecast -0.5%). Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish. Resistance at 123.23 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 123.99 (Friday's high), then 124.38-124.46 band (June 24 high-June 17 high), 124.63 (June 10 high), 124.74 (June 9 high) and 125.68 (June 8 high). Support at 122.87 (hourly chart), then at 122.33 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 121.92 (Tuesday's low), then 121.76 (55-day moving average), 121.44 (May 25 low), 120.90 (100-day moving average) and 120.61 (May 22 low).
EUR/USD--to consolidate in lower range as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Undermined by positive dollar sentiment; uncertainty over the situation in Greece ahead of Sunday's Greek referendum on whether to accept the terms of the creditors' proposal; increase in short-euro hedges as European stocks advanced (Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.51% to 387.07 Wednesday); euro-funded carry trades amid improved risk sentiment; European Central Bank's large-scale quantitative easing program. Data focus: 0900 GMT eurozone May PPI (forecast +0.1% on-month, -2.0% on-year). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD in bearish mode; stochastics turning bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 1.1041 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0950 (Monday's low), then 1.0887 (June 1 low), 1.0819 (May 27 reaction low), 1.0784 (April 24 low) and 1.0658 April 21 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1109 (hourly chart), then at 1.1171 (Wednesday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.1243 (Tuesday's high), then 1.1278 (Monday's high), 1.1347 (June 23 high), 1.1410 (June 22 high) and 1.1440-1.1450 band (June 18 high-May 18 high).
AUD/USD--to consolidate in lower range as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Undermined by soft commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.37% at 224.06 Wednesday); positive dollar sentiment. But AUD/USD losses tempered by improved risk sentiment; Aussie demand on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia May trade balance. Daily chart negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern completed Wednesday; MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 0.7584 (Monday's low); breach would target 0.7550 (April 13 reaction low), then 0.7530 (near-six-year low hit April 2) and 0.7449 (May 18, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.7697 (hourly chart), then at 0.7738-0.7740 (Wednesday's high-Friday's high); breach would target 0.7752 (June 25 high), then 0.7771 (June 24 high), 0.7796 (June 22 high), 0.7809 (June 19 high), 0.7848 (June 18 high) and 0.7934 (May 20 high).
NZD/USD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting five-year low 0.6708 this morning as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. NZD sentiment hurt by 5.9% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and 10.8% drop in average price for whole milk powder to $2,054/mt at latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. NZD/USD also weighed by divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances; positive dollar sentiment; Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses tempered by improved risk sentiment. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support may be encountered at 0.6704 (downtrend support line that runs from May 29 low of 0.7078); breach would expose downside to 0.6559 (May 25, 2010 reaction low), then 0.6192 (July 13, 2009 low). Resistance at 0.6758 (hourly chart), then at 0.6810 (Wednesday's high, near 10-day exponential moving average); breach would target 0.6854 (Tuesday's high), then 0.6880 (Monday's high), 0.6909 (Friday's high), 0.6924 (June 25 high) and 0.6938 (June 19 high).
GBP/USD--to consolidate in lower range after hitting two-week low 1.5589 Wednesday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Sterling sentiment dented by weaker-than-expected U.K. June CIPS / Markit manufacturing PMI of 51.4 (versus forecast 52.3). GBP/USD also weighed by positive dollar sentiment. But GBP/USD losses tempered by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; improved risk sentiment. Data focus: 0600 GMT U.K. June Nationwide house price index; 0830 GMT U.K. June CIPS / Markit construction PMI (forecast 56.5). Daily chart negative-biased as MACD and stochastics bearish; five-day moving average falling below 15-day moving average. Support at 1.5589 (Wednesday's low); breach would target 1.5539 (June 16 low), 1.5485 (June 15 low), then 1.5465 (June 12 low), 1.5420 (June 11 low) and 1.5366 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.5668 (hourly chart), then at 1.5732 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.5774 (Tuesday's high), then 1.5787 (Monday's high), 1.5802 (June 24 high), 1.5831 (June 23 high) and 1.5909 (June 22 high).
USD/CHF--to consolidate in higher range after hitting near-one-month high 0.9490 this morning as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. USD/CHF underpinned by supported by positive dollar sentiment; franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross; threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention; negative Swiss interest rates. But Swissie sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected Switzerland June manufacturing PMI of 50.0 (versus forecast 49.7). Daily chart positive-biased as MACD in bullish mode; stochastics turned bullish; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 0.9503 (June 5 high); breach would target 0.9514 (May 28 high), then 0.9530 (200-day moving average), 0.9545 (May 27 reaction high), 0.9598 (April 28 high) and 0.9718 (April 23 reaction high). Support at 0.9397 (hourly chart), then at 0.9337 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.9241 (Monday's low), then 0.9207 (June 23 low), 0.9152-0.9145 band (June 22 low-June 18 low), 0.9108 (May 15 low) and 0.9073-0.9065 band (May 14 low-May 7 low, near 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from Jan. 15 low of 0.7360 to March 12 high of 1.0128).
USD/CAD--to consolidate in higher range after hitting two-and-a-half month high 1.2597 Wednesday as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. USD/CAD underpinned by positive dollar sentiment; weaker oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $2.51 at $56.96/bbl Wednesday). But USD/CAD gains tempered by improved risk sentiment. Data focus: 1330 GMT RBC Canada June manufacturing PMI. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought levels; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing. Resistance at 1.2597 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 1.2645 (April 13 high), then 1.2667 (April 10 reaction high), 1.2783 (March 31 reaction high) and 1.2833 (March 18 swing high). Support at 1.2526 (hourly chart), then at 1.2471 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2358 (Tuesday's low), then 1.2302 (Monday's low), 1.2273 (June 24 low), 1.2215-1.2210 (June 22 low-June 19 low), 1.2124 (June 18 low) and 1.1997 (May 18 low, near 200-day moving average).
EUR/JPY--to consolidate in lower range as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Undermined by weak EUR/USD undertone; Japan exporter sales. But EUR/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japan importers. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD in bearish mode; stochastics turning bearish; five-day moving average below 15-day moving average and declining. Support at 135.94-135.84 band (hourly chart-Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 133.68 (Monday's low), then 133.51 (100-day moving average), 133.05 (May 26 reaction low), 131.26 (April 30 low) and 130.22 (April 29 low). Resistance at 137.39 (Wednesday's high); breach would target 137.74 (Tuesday's high), then 138.07 (Monday's high), 138.67 (Friday's high), 138.87 (June 25 high) and 139.18 (June 24 high).
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2015 19:35 ET (23:35 GMT)
EUR/GBP--to trade in lower range. Undermined by uncertainty over Greece ahead of Sunday's Greek referendum. Daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages declining; but stochastics still in bullish mode. Support at 0.7058 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6981 (Monday's seven-and-a-half year low), then 0.6891 (Oct. 9, 2007 low) and 0.6677 (July 26, 2007 low). Resistance at 0.7128 (Wednesday's high), then at 0.7146 (Tuesday's high); breach would target 0.7168 (Monday's high), then 0.7179 (June 23 high), 0.7210-0.7213 (June 22 high-June 17 high), 0.7250 (June 16 high), 0.7266 (June 12 high) and 0.7316 (June 11 high).
Write to Jerry Tan at jerry.tan@wsj.com
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2015 19:35 ET (23:35 GMT)
#FX
#Forex
#SaleForex
#USD_Buoyant
#UpbeatData
#PayrollFocus
#NFP
#NonFarmPayroll
#AsiaDailyForexOutlook
0 Response to "USD Buoyant on Upbeat Data; U.S. Payrolls in Focus -- Asia Daily Forex Outlook"
Thanks for give comment.